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wellygary
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  #2603390 13-Nov-2020 15:23
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antonknee:

 

There may be a whole pile of consented houses coming down the pipe (although cosnented doesn't = built/building), but are they affordable? Are they in places people want to live?

 

 

Auckland council estimate that 90% of consents are completed and given a CCC within two years, so that's not too bad,

 

They are very likely to be where people want to live as I suspect most will already be sold, - but they will end up vacating a whole bunch of homes previously occupied....

 

 

 

 




mattwnz
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  #2603425 13-Nov-2020 16:17
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aspett:

 

 

There is a big pile of housing coming down the pipe and no one to fill them... the whole there are "thousands of kiwis" flocking home is just bunk....

 

 

 

 

I think you'll eat those words in the future. We already have thousands of empty houses - people will just continue to invest in any further housing regardless of whether there's someone to go in it or not.

 

 

 

 

I would like to see stats on how many ghost houses there actually are. Because why are we building so many, if we already have enough houses? Guessing it could be growing. Many airbnb are also empty. People just sitting on them like gold, hoping for big capital gains? As these things can run in cycles, once people try to sell up, aren't they going to . Increasing incoming migration may mop these up, but that comes at a huge future cost, with infrastructure and support costs  for these people coming into NZ. 

 

 

 

 


mattwnz
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  #2603427 13-Nov-2020 16:22
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Soooo... the media has been telling us all these returning kiwis are returning since covid hit, and buying up houses in NZ, causing huge price increases and FOMO since lockdown. But according to this article, the figures don't support this. 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims that returning New Zealanders could have a big impact on the economy and the property market appear to be severely overstated

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107937/claims-returning-nzers-could-have-big-impact-economy-and-property-market-appear-be 

 

 

 

Overall, the country's total population gain from migration was just 808 in September, down by 90% from the net gain of 8190 in September last year.

 

Over the six months from April to September this year there was a net population gain of just 2513 people from migration. That compares with a net gain of 29,709 over the same six month period of last year.




tdgeek
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  #2603518 13-Nov-2020 19:17
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mattwnz:

 

Soooo... the media has been telling us all these returning kiwis are returning since covid hit, and buying up houses in NZ, causing huge price increases and FOMO since lockdown. But according to this article, the figures don't support this. 

 

 

 

 

 

Claims that returning New Zealanders could have a big impact on the economy and the property market appear to be severely overstated

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/107937/claims-returning-nzers-could-have-big-impact-economy-and-property-market-appear-be 

 

 

 

Overall, the country's total population gain from migration was just 808 in September, down by 90% from the net gain of 8190 in September last year.

 

Over the six months from April to September this year there was a net population gain of just 2513 people from migration. That compares with a net gain of 29,709 over the same six month period of last year.

 

 

Maybe thats right? It does make sense. Next to zero "normal" immigration and the "Kiwi's coming home". Does make a lot of sense, so much is abnormal this year.


shk292
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  #2603527 13-Nov-2020 20:06
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The type of migrant may also be significant - cashed-up kiwis who have been expat for 5-10-15 years vs new migrants on student/working visas.


halper86
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  #2603563 13-Nov-2020 22:37
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shk292:

The type of migrant may also be significant - cashed-up kiwis who have been expat for 5-10-15 years vs new migrants on student/working visas.


Aka ones that can splash the cash on their own pad, yet - let’s say - will buy their own pad and a few more investment ones.

mattwnz
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  #2605626 17-Nov-2020 18:00
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halper86:
shk292:

 

The type of migrant may also be significant - cashed-up kiwis who have been expat for 5-10-15 years vs new migrants on student/working visas.

 


Aka ones that can splash the cash on their own pad, yet - let’s say - will buy their own pad and a few more investment ones.

 

 

 

Apparently the big buyers at the moment are first home buyers according to the Newstalk ZB host in the mornings, and apparently that is a good thing. But If someone is buying a million dollar average shack in Auckland, do they realize that they have to actually earn more than one million dollars with tax and interest, to pay it back, plus the deposit they put down. Or hope they win division 1 lotto, and don't have to share the top prize. (shows how much lotto prizes haven't kept up with real life NZ inflation)  Are these people getting 30year interest only mortgages or something? Something doesn't add up. Or are they getting the deposits from the family?  This is going into potentially a huge recession, and younger people maybe more likely to lose their jobs. I think quite a lot of families could go down to single income earning families. We just need another lock down, which is possible based on what is happening in Australia, and our lack of scanning for contact tracing, and it could cause more problems for NZs economy.

 

I am not so concerned about all these older cashed up people with money in the bank who have moved their money out of TDs, into call accounts, waiting to find a house to buy. They will get super anyway. But it does cause more demand on houses when they do this, pushing up prices further, and we could end up with a lot of old accidental landlords in the future, who saw that they had no other option but to buy houses.

 

 

 

What I have seen at the moment, is that agents are basically asking what they want for a house. So initially they may put a big sticker price on it eg BEO , or tender offer over $xxxxxx, or not price it. Sometimes they get it, but if it fails to sell they may then reduce the price a bit. But many of these prices are well in excess of the estimated E values, and can even be double the CVs or just a few years ago. The CV however is the estimated or often previous selling price just a few years ago.

 

Previously agents tended to use the E value as a good price guide of the expected selling price, where previously they tended to use the CVs and add on a bit, depending on how old the CV was. E-Values seem to have taken the place of CVs, so agents then add a bit onto the E-Value, justifying even higher prices than before.

 

 

 

I also noted with a house I was looking at this weekend, the RV did actually drop after the global financial crisis, and I think house prices in my area flatlined for quite a few years due to this.


 
 
 

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).
alasta
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  #2605631 17-Nov-2020 18:30
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mattwnz:

 

But If someone is buying a million dollar average shack in Auckland, do they realize that they have to actually earn more than one million dollars with tax and interest, to pay it back, plus the deposit they put down. Or hope they win division 1 lotto, and don't have to share the top prize. (shows how much lotto prizes haven't kept up with real life NZ inflation)  Are these people getting 30year interest only mortgages or something? Something doesn't add up.

 

 

It's generally accepted that first home buyers tend to purchase in the lower quartile of the market, so in Auckland they're probably looking at nearer to $800k. With 20% equity and current interest rates it's probably feasible for a lot of couples to service the mortgage on that.

 

Personally I am more concerned about single people. There seems to be an outdated perception that people who buy homes are all couples, but what are you supposed to do if you're single and you're too old to go flatting, can't afford the obscene rents in places like Wellington, and can't afford to buy?


mudguard
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  #2605714 17-Nov-2020 21:05
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mattwnz:

 

Apparently the big buyers at the moment are first home buyers according to the Newstalk ZB host in the mornings, and apparently that is a good thing. But If someone is buying a million dollar average shack in Auckland, do they realize that they have to actually earn more than one million dollars with tax and interest, to pay it back, plus the deposit they put down.

 

Presumably if they had the $200K deposit, they wait until it goes to $1.25M then sell it and move to Tauranga/Nelson etc. 


mattwnz
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  #2605759 17-Nov-2020 21:14
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alasta:

 

mattwnz:

 

But If someone is buying a million dollar average shack in Auckland, do they realize that they have to actually earn more than one million dollars with tax and interest, to pay it back, plus the deposit they put down. Or hope they win division 1 lotto, and don't have to share the top prize. (shows how much lotto prizes haven't kept up with real life NZ inflation)  Are these people getting 30year interest only mortgages or something? Something doesn't add up.

 

 

It's generally accepted that first home buyers tend to purchase in the lower quartile of the market, so in Auckland they're probably looking at nearer to $800k. With 20% equity and current interest rates it's probably feasible for a lot of couples to service the mortgage on that.

 

Personally I am more concerned about single people. There seems to be an outdated perception that people who buy homes are all couples, but what are you supposed to do if you're single and you're too old to go flatting, can't afford the obscene rents in places like Wellington, and can't afford to buy?

 

 

 

 

That is true, but from what I have heard, much under 1 million is is not going to be great, and it could be false economy going too cheap.

 

Yes single people are  disadvantaged by all this. It pays to be in a couple because costs get shared, and  you are even taxed less per dollar earnt. eg a single person earning 120k pays more in tax, than 2  people in a couple earning 60k each. I guess the option for single people are apartments. But it shouldn't be the only solution, as many single people want their own house and garden.

 

Kiwibuild have an apartment for  500k in Wellington, but it is less than 50sqm, and my understanding is that many banks don't lend on apartments less than 50sqm. Kiwibuild IMO should be the answer, but the government have failed, as they aren't building them themselves (like the old state houses were), and relying on developers. But it appears very few developers want to do it, or they can't. I think we need to go back to how we used to do things, when we had previous housing crisis's


wellygary
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  #2605761 17-Nov-2020 21:19
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shk292:

 

The type of migrant may also be significant - cashed-up kiwis who have been expat for 5-10-15 years vs new migrants on student/working visas.

 

 

Only on the periphery, the equation of having somewhere to live holds for both wealthy and less wealthy migrants, those who don't have money will rent, but will still need a house/ room in a flat, 

 

While renters/flatters tend to have a higher density,  having migration fall by 90% is a much bigger long term factor.... 


quickymart
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  #2607223 19-Nov-2020 20:48
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https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/11/house-prices-to-double-in-seven-years-and-there-s-nothing-jacinda-ardern-can-do-about-it-property-expert.html

 

Is this Ashley guy right? Should we just keep on letting prices rise to the moon, do nothing about it, and eventually no one will be able to afford a house so...prices will drop? Am I understanding him correctly?


mattwnz
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  #2607271 19-Nov-2020 23:22
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IMO houses are basically being used as a vehicle for banks, to lend more and more freshly printed money at the moment.  Lower interest rates allows this, and allows house prices to rise as a result. I see almost every night now on the TV news, the top stories are about all the first home buyers now being able to buy homes. IMO it's almost a form of propaganda, and it is  encouraging more and more first home buyers to buy at these hyper inflated prices, otherwise they could be paying a lot more in the future.  This increases demand with FOMO. FOMO IMO is  a big driver at the moment. IMO someone should be telling people to calm down, and there will be enough houses for everyone, but no they can't say that, because they can't build enough, and we don't know how many empty ones that could be used. As a result of this some people are buying dumps, that they will need to spend heaps on in the future. 


Batman
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  #2607278 20-Nov-2020 06:18
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quickymart:

 

Is this Ashley guy right? 

 

 

he is laying a challenge for the PM. 

 

without getting political, current PM always gets what she wants and current coalition is more left than center.

 

so ... who knows


Batman
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  #2607279 20-Nov-2020 06:22
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mattwnz:

 

IMO houses are basically being used as a vehicle for banks, to lend more and more freshly printed money at the moment.  Lower interest rates allows this, and allows house prices to rise as a result. I see almost every night now on the TV news, the top stories are about all the first home buyers now being able to buy homes. IMO it's almost a form of propaganda, and it is  encouraging more and more first home buyers to buy at these hyper inflated prices, otherwise they could be paying a lot more in the future.  This increases demand with FOMO. FOMO IMO is  a big driver at the moment. IMO someone should be telling people to calm down, and there will be enough houses for everyone, but no they can't say that, because they can't build enough, and we don't know how many empty ones that could be used. As a result of this some people are buying dumps, that they will need to spend heaps on in the future. 

 

 

people said it was international buyers, offshore criminals etc that was pushing prices

 

but now non residents are banned and still it's shot up.

 

really demand >>>>> supply 

 

and investors have nowhere to put their money?


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