2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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1238 posts

Uber Geek

#2632502 8-Jan-2021 15:49

You start to get immune from shock to bad Covid news then I saw this.

Over Christmas in a (smallish) UK nursing home 13 out of 27 residents died from Covid.

HALF of the residents died!

This is despite in theory them being locked down with no visitors etc etc.

Tragic.

vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2632510 8-Jan-2021 16:21

sbiddle:

According to the PM, it is when we finish the roll out not when we start. It sent chills down my spine to her hear her say that.

not sure why, we will probably have the whole country vacinated before most other big countries , the USA being the main one.

That's far from being correct.

The US will finish their vaccine rollout (even at current speeds) well before NZ. They'll potentially have well over 2/3 of their population vaccinated before we even start. Most Western countries plan on having their vaccination programs complete well before the end of 2021.

Out vaccine rollout isn't scheduled to be complete until the end of Q1 2022 - the US is scheduled to be competed well before the end of 2021. Remember Biden has even doubled down a week or so ago on his target of 100 million vaccinated within his first 100 days in office. They will have the vaccines, their problem has been logistics.

good luck on that . considering nearly half the population say they wont get one and even now there is no central plan to administer the vaccination , so Bidden may improve it but the way Trump has destroyed the trust of the American public , i will be amazed if they manage it. Vaccination of children has dropped by 90% of just normal vaccinations in some parts so good luck convincing their parents to get the covid one.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2632516 8-Jan-2021 16:36

KrazyKid:

You start to get immune from shock to bad Covid news then I saw this.

Over Christmas in a (smallish) UK nursing home 13 out of 27 residents died from Covid.

HALF of the residents died!

This is despite in theory them being locked down with no visitors etc etc.

Tragic.

Staff go in and out... residents went out for hospital appointments....

When COVID is freely spreading in the UK population its pretty hard to stop it seeping into vulnerable communities unless you hermitically seal all the residents and staff in and have all delivers via social distancing

Scott3

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#2632524 8-Jan-2021 16:59

debo:

According to the PM, it is when we finish the roll out not when we start. It sent chills down my spine to her hear her say that.

Given we aren't in the same position as say the UK, where the vaccine is desperately needed to save thousands of lives, I think it is appropriate we use normal vaccine approval routes, rather than emergency ones. Holding off for a few weeks will give substantial real world data, on top of the stage 3 trial results, and potentially a decent chunk or learning about how to do the roll out.

Should note that NZ is one of the has successfully eliminated covid-19 from the community multiple times. And despite the virus mutating to be more contagious, there are not any indications that we can't do so again. As such, vaccinations for NZ are more about the economy (preventing economic harm from further lock-downs, or economic gains from re-opening the border).

The above means that we might not be willing to bid as high for early release vaccines as other countries in far more pressing need.

There is also an ethical argument that early vaccine doses should go to countries that need them more. That said, ethical concerns haven't stopped our government from ordering enough vaccine for triple our population.

Will be interesting to see how the stage 3 trials for the Janssen & Novavax vaccines turn out. If they are at cira 95%+ effeminacy, we may be best not to take our order of Oxford AstraZeneca vaccines (62% effective, although relatively low volume trials showed 90% effecancy if half dose was given for the first injection)

For all I said above, relatively low number's of vaccines to cover air / sea crew & border workers would be extremely Useful for NZ. And vaccinating front line medical / police workers would be very useful if their is another outbreak

The population of the Realm islands is under 20,000. Vaccinating those islands would give them comfort to allow open travel from NZ which would avoid the need for the NZ government to financially bail them out.

Would be interesting to know the timeline for 1.5m the Pfizer doses we ordered in October. Given we have got the ultra cold freezers already, it is already approves in many countries, and the high (95%) efficacy of that vaccine, it would be a good candidate to give to the most at risk like the boarder workers, as soon as supply can be secured.

[Edit] - After we have inoculated border workers, Front liners and the Realm islands, there is a relatively small marginal gain from each additional person inoculated. Until we get to herd immunity anyway.

Until we hit that last milestone we still need to keep our boarders closed, lock down if we get big outbreaks etc... That is likely why the PM says that the finish date is more important. Barring a small number for the above categories, I would way rather have vaccinations for the entire population turn up in Nov / Dec this year, than they be spread evenly over the next 24 months.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2632526 8-Jan-2021 17:05

Scott3:

Would be interesting to know the timeline for 1.5m the Pfizer doses we ordered in October. Given we have got the ultra cold freezers already, it is already approves in many countries, and the high (95%) efficacy of that vaccine, it would be a good candidate to give to the most at risk like the boarder workers, as soon as supply can be secured.

This, This This,

The Pfizer vaccine is likely to be approved by Oz in the next few weeks, and has been administered to millions around the world, we should follow very quickly in approving it

immunizing 750K priority ppl including all border staff, all air crew, all port workers, + families, and the realm countries would add another layer to out current COVID defences.

Scott3

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#2632532 8-Jan-2021 17:21

wellygary:

This, This This,

The Pfizer vaccine is likely to be approved by Oz in the next few weeks, and has been administered to millions around the world, we should follow very quickly in approving it

immunizing 750K priority ppl including all border staff, all air crew, all port workers, + families, and the realm countries would add another layer to out current COVID defences.

From October 2020 Press release:

"As part of the agreement, vaccine delivery to New Zealand could be as early as the first quarter of 2021. This is just the first tranche of work in a multi-pronged approach to ensuring we secure vaccines for New Zealanders."

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/first-covid-19-vaccine-purchase-agreement-signed

Obvious questions are:

Is that still on track
How many doses are in the first tranche (2.5k vs 250k doses?), and what about subsequent tranches.

Pretty much the whole world will be desperately after these doses. Not sure if our October 2020 order places us up the queue, or well down it. Also there is always a chance that our order gets delayed as higher bidders are prioritized, or that vaccine exports get banned (like has happened in India).

Pritty glad I am a citizen in a low population wealthy country at this stage. Have family in the Philippines (Poor country with 107 Million population, and cira 1000 new covid cases a day). Will be many years before they are able to get herd immunity via vaccination (if vaccines even last that long)

sbiddle

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#2632536 8-Jan-2021 17:31

Scott3:

After we have inoculated border workers, Front liners and the Realm islands, there is a relatively small marginal gain from each additional person inoculated. Until we get to herd immunity anyway.

wellygary:

immunizing 750K priority ppl including all border staff, all air crew, all port workers, + families, and the realm countries would add another layer to out current COVID defences.

Not so quick..

The huge unknown right now is still how effective the vaccines are at preventing virus shedding. We know the vaccines stop people from becoming ill, but we don't know how well they stop somebody who contracts the virus from shedding it and still spreading it to others.

This has already been discussed pretty extensively in this thread, and is something that could significantly differ between the vaccine types (mRNA vs more traditional vaccines) just like it does between OPV and IPV for polio (although not a really good comparison since one is a live vaccine).

If virus shedding still does occur once vaccinated then vaccinating our frontline workers would deliver zero gain and a huge false sense of security as they would still spread the virus should they contract it.

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debo

307 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2632548 8-Jan-2021 18:20

sbiddle:
Not so quick..

The huge unknown right now is still how effective the vaccines are at preventing virus shedding. We know the vaccines stop people from becoming ill, but we don't know how well they stop somebody who contracts the virus from shedding it and still spreading it to others.

This has already been discussed pretty extensively in this thread, and is something that could significantly differ between the vaccine types (mRNA vs more traditional vaccines) just like it does between OPV and IPV for polio (although not a really good comparison since one is a live vaccine).

If virus shedding still does occur once vaccinated then vaccinating our frontline workers would deliver zero gain and a huge false sense of security as they would still spread the virus should they contract it.

The question is whether a vaccinated person shedds more virus than an unvaccinated person. It seams unlikely. So, even if some vaccinated people shedd virus then it is a still huge improvement.
It's like the seat belt argument. It not that seat belts are 100% perfect. It's that they greatly improve the risk of injury. Not wearing your seat belt because you are scared of the few times they fail is false logic.

Scott3

3963 posts

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#2632555 8-Jan-2021 19:06

sbiddle:

Not so quick..

The huge unknown right now is still how effective the vaccines are at preventing virus shedding. We know the vaccines stop people from becoming ill, but we don't know how well they stop somebody who contracts the virus from shedding it and still spreading it to others.

This has already been discussed pretty extensively in this thread, and is something that could significantly differ between the vaccine types (mRNA vs more traditional vaccines) just like it does between OPV and IPV for polio (although not a really good comparison since one is a live vaccine).

If virus shedding still does occur once vaccinated then vaccinating our frontline workers would deliver zero gain and a huge false sense of security as they would still spread the virus should they contract it.

My understanding is the design of vaccine trials is such that it dosn't distinguish those that get (and possibly shed) the virus, but don't display any symptoms, from those that never get sufficient of the virus to shed. Hence there is a risk that the first situation applies.

I am a far from an export, but the general understanding I have is that it is fairly likely that it is the later situation, but we don't have enough evidence to prove it yet, and as such need to be cautions.

With the vaccine being given in large quantities in countries with a lot of covid-19, we will soon know start hearing if family members of vaccinated nurses etc get sick more than the general population etc.

Given appropriate approvals I don't think we need to hold vaccinating boarder workers off until this question is answered for sure. - These workers are tested frequently (we may need to increase this), so we are not reliant on them showing symptoms to be aware that they get sick.

That said, perhaps we should avoid giving it to their close family members until the question is answered, due to the risk of the vaccine masking symptoms.

kingdragonfly

11190 posts

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#2632559 8-Jan-2021 19:10

Washington Post: Wealthy American donors received vaccines through Florida nursing home

The invitations alarmed local officials and may have violated state and national guidelines.

The invitation to affluent Floridians arrived in writing and by telephone.

“He asked me if I wanted to have a vaccine,” said Ryna Greenbaum, 89, recounting the phone message she got last week. “I’m one of the people who has given him some money.”

The call, she said, had come from Keith Myers, chief executive of MorseLife Health System, a high-end nursing home and assisted-living facility in West Palm Beach, Fla., to members of the board and major donors.

...MorseLife has made scarce coronavirus vaccines — provided through a federal program intended for residents and staff of long-term-care facilities — available not just to its residents but to board members and those who made generous donations to the facility, including members of the Palm Beach Country Club, according to multiple people who were offered access, some of whom accepted it.

...the country’s patchwork approach to immunization against the coronavirus — leaving decisions about eligibility to state and local authorities as well as to individual providers — is creating opportunities for facilities to provide access to well-connected people while thousands of others wait in line. In Florida, some elderly residents have camped out overnight in hopes of receiving a shot.

Top health personnel in Palm Beach County did not authorize the vaccinations of nonresidents at MorseLife, according to a health official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not cleared to discuss the issue. The official was shocked to learn that members of the public, even those of advanced age, were given priority access to immunization at the facility, while others wait in line for appointments at sites set up by the county.
...

tdgeek

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#2632927 9-Jan-2021 20:21

20,000 died from Covid this year in the US. 2021. It took 40 days in the latter part of 2020 to equal that. 4085 yesterday.

tdgeek

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#2632929 9-Jan-2021 20:25

Doctors asking Biden to mail masks to everyone. They need to make non masking in public an offence.

Oblivian

7296 posts

Uber Geek

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#2632930 9-Jan-2021 20:37

They're so messed up that the majority of population also doesn't believe it's a true figure and being blown out of proportion. As if there is a backhand for saying it was, so everything is being classified as covid 0.o

Yeah, cause doctor's wanna make you look worse than you are for the hang of it..

tdgeek

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#2632933 9-Jan-2021 20:42

Oblivian: They're so messed up that the majority of population also doesn't believe it's a true figure and being blown out of proportion. As if there is a backhand for saying it was, so everything is being classified as covid 0.o

Yeah, cause doctor's wanna make you look worse than you are for the hang of it..

Sad but true. Biden may get traction. How many Republican voters are extremists? A very very low % i'd say. If you want a vaccine here it is, if you dont as its so wrong, SWEET. More for the needy. But id still arrest non mask wearers. Be easier managing 100 million 3yo's

tdgeek

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#2632939 9-Jan-2021 21:04

Re reduced or delayed vaccines, it takes time AFTER the second dose to get immunity

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/health/covid-vaccinated-infected-wellness/index.html

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