2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2680122 25-Mar-2021 07:59

sbiddle:

wellygary:

Agree, the fact they are not releasing the data behind the "vaccination curves" -( they are processing requests as OIAs) is frankly unhelpful...

Its all to do with not wanting to be held to account if they don't make their milestones...

I also note they have stopped reporting how much vaccine is in the country ... again pretty unhelpful...

It reminds me a lot of when they stopped reporting lots of data on the total number of available MIQ rooms when the media started asking questions..

When you combine this confusing data with the very significant change in the past few days over what determines a community transmission case it really does make me wonder about lots of the things we're being told. Why are all these changes occurring?

... theorising that there's a conspiracy and that the conspiracy has some nefarious political agenda.

Firstly, we're 2 1/2 years away from an election, but the target for vaccination program completion is the end of the year. If they're "lying" to you, they'd be caught, and if we know that, then they must know that too. Are they completely stupid? I think not, YMMV.

There's a global shortage of vaccine(s), there are already cases of "vaccine nationalism" next door in Australia (with AZ vaccine shipment delays ex Europe), and NZ's need for vaccine are far, far, less critical and urgent than almost anywhere else. I'd be very surprised if there's not some confidentiality agreement between NZ and Pfizer, even if not formal then "assumed". Having been involved in global trade in often critical materials (incl to pharma) and where supply shortages crop up, there's a pretty basic principle - you'd be dead in the water if you or your customer disclosed some agreement to obtain supplies of something that's in short supply globally to other customers who are also in deep strife. The end result will be you'll either have only one - or no customers at all if that's how you show you're operating. Nobody will trust you.

Pfizer NZ CEO has already been contacted, and will not comment on NZ delivery status. Choosing to believe that's "because everybody is lying" is nuts.

If someone bungs in an OIA request, I expect it'll be declined - that's why there is a "commercial sensitivity/prejudice" exception, and in this case if it's declined, then I very much doubt it's being abused.

As far as changing changing how CT is defined, I mean really? Who cares? If close (household) contact of an infected border worker inevitably gets infected - but it's ring-fenced - then it's not the same as "CT" when the need is trying to trace initially "unknown" and possibly numerous "at-risk" contacts. Anyway, it's openly disclosed - not some "secret squirrel" means to deceive, as in the recent "case A" and (so far only weak positive, then negative - now isolated and monitored) "Case B". It's a far far lower risk situation than "real CT".

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#2680163 25-Mar-2021 09:20

Fred99:

... theorising that there's a conspiracy and that the conspiracy has some nefarious political agenda.

Firstly, we're 2 1/2 years away from an election, but the target for vaccination program completion is the end of the year. If they're "lying" to you, they'd be caught, and if we know that, then they must know that too. Are they completely stupid? I think not, YMMV.

There's a global shortage of vaccine(s), there are already cases of "vaccine nationalism" next door in Australia (with AZ vaccine shipment delays ex Europe), and NZ's need for vaccine are far, far, less critical and urgent than almost anywhere else. I'd be very surprised if there's not some confidentiality agreement between NZ and Pfizer, even if not formal then "assumed". Having been involved in global trade in often critical materials (incl to pharma) and where supply shortages crop up, there's a pretty basic principle - you'd be dead in the water if you or your customer disclosed some agreement to obtain supplies of something that's in short supply globally to other customers who are also in deep strife. The end result will be you'll either have only one - or no customers at all if that's how you show you're operating. Nobody will trust you.

Pfizer NZ CEO has already been contacted, and will not comment on NZ delivery status. Choosing to believe that's "because everybody is lying" is nuts.

If someone bungs in an OIA request, I expect it'll be declined - that's why there is a "commercial sensitivity/prejudice" exception, and in this case if it's declined, then I very much doubt it's being abused.

As far as changing changing how CT is defined, I mean really? Who cares? If close (household) contact of an infected border worker inevitably gets infected - but it's ring-fenced - then it's not the same as "CT" when the need is trying to trace initially "unknown" and possibly numerous "at-risk" contacts. Anyway, it's openly disclosed - not some "secret squirrel" means to deceive, as in the recent "case A" and (so far only weak positive, then negative - now isolated and monitored) "Case B". It's a far far lower risk situation than "real CT".

What did anything I say have to do with politics?! Nothing I said inferred anybody was lying.

We have no shortage of vaccines in NZ yet are still facing issues with the rollout which has now been acknowledged. What is very clear is that data obfuscation is now occuring, whether it be the MIQ capacities, the graphs from last week and this week on vaccine numbers, and now the decision to not release some of that data.

The fact a MIQ employee (not the family member) is no longer classed as CT is a fairly significant change. After around 8 or 9 months of very clear defined terminology that defined what cases were CT and what cases were at the border/MIQ, that we've now seen a change in that. What was the determination that this should be changed? This person has free reign in the community and has a known public location of interest which theoretically could be a point of spread. This was always the requirement for a defined CT case, and looking back at every recent MIQ employee who has been infected every one has been identified as a case of CT. Why is this case now suddenly not CT?

Fred99

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#2680209 25-Mar-2021 10:51

You know we have no shortage of vaccine in NZ how?

I'll be waiting for months for my shots because vaccine isn't here. The statement yesterday (IIRC without going back to check exact numbers) said there are 3,000 trained "vaccinators" ready to start, 200 already working doing MIQ staff, next household contacts of MIQ, then it starts in earnest, and the reason they don't want to ramp up too early is because they don't want to have to ramp down. I assume they're going to use NHI numbers to send us all notices in advance to show up at a place and time to get our shots. If they then have to "postpone" it'll be a right mess.

The MIQ workers have free rein to go wherever they like too. I think the decision to change classification is fine, makes no practical difference, they (household contacts of MIQ workers) fit more neatly into the same category as the MIQ workers themselves in terms of risk and contact tracing than random and potentially difficult to trace to origin cases of CT.

DS248

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#2680243 25-Mar-2021 11:16

Fred99:

... The statement yesterday (IIRC without going back to check exact numbers) said there are 3,000 trained "vaccinators" ready to start, 200 already working doing MIQ staff, next household contacts of MIQ, then it starts in earnest, and the reason they don't want to ramp up too early is because they don't want to have to ramp down. ...

1,300 "have completed the online training unit course", 300-400 of whom are "active".

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018788894/covid-19-response-minister-with-latest-on-vaccinations

From the same article, current stock in NZ is "just more than 300,000 doses"

Even if the current ~2000/day is upped to 6000/day that is 50 days supply. Unlikely that more stock will not be available before then?

Oblivian

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#2680245 25-Mar-2021 11:17

The herald tracker pictures it.

Feb 15: ~60,000

Feb 24: ~76,000

Mar 3: ~65,000 <unknown>

Reported total @ Mar3 ~200,000 so presume similar shipment

Of course that is not total vials. That is contained within. 195 vials/tray. ~5 tray per box. @ 6/vial = 1070 'dose' per tray

So with a total compete hovering around 50k. There's a fair more in the tank with 1/4 consumption. And no doubt over that still on it's way.

freitasm

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#2680254 25-Mar-2021 11:28

Holy crap Auckland. You don't scan anymore, do you? At all?

Oblivian

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#2680260 25-Mar-2021 11:32

freitasm: Holy crap Auckland. You don't scan anymore, do you? At all?

Did you see my official stats to pretty picture for nationwide?

And there was a boat race or 2 with bars open at the viaduct in the middle there around 12 Mar. Where it actually DECREASED

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freitasm

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#2680262 25-Mar-2021 11:33

People are stupid.

networkn

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#2680268 25-Mar-2021 11:35

freitasm: Holy crap Auckland. You don't scan anymore, do you? At all?

Well, I can't speak for anyone else, but my scanning has been fairly complete (I find I forget at places I go to more often). I do miss the occasional one, but for example, I went to Bunnings near me Monday, I scanned and then got talking to a staff member near the entrance. I saw probably 100 people enter and none scan. They have security at the door and I asked the staff why they aren't reminding people or insisting on it, they said staff had been the subject of conflict over it. During L2/L3, there were stores I went, where you weren't able to enter without a scan.

We need people to understand that scanning doesn't prevent the spread per se, but likely shortens or lessens the likelihood of a lockdown in the event of CT.

I think the majority of people still believe scanning is only beneficial l2 and above.

Fred99

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#2680270 25-Mar-2021 11:38

DS248:

Fred99:

... The statement yesterday (IIRC without going back to check exact numbers) said there are 3,000 trained "vaccinators" ready to start, 200 already working doing MIQ staff, next household contacts of MIQ, then it starts in earnest, and the reason they don't want to ramp up too early is because they don't want to have to ramp down. ...

1,300 "have completed the online training unit course", 300-400 of whom are "active".

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018788894/covid-19-response-minister-with-latest-on-vaccinations

From the same article, current stock in NZ is "just more than 300,000 doses"

Even if the current ~2000/day is upped to 6000/day that is 50 days supply. Unlikely that more stock will not be available before then?

OK.

They are due to complete group 1 soon and have plenty of vaccine at hand for that.

Group 2 is 480,000 people (960,000 doses), so we do not have vaccine on hand.

I wasn't sure of the numbers mentioned for vaccinators, and I'm still not sure if the 1300 is total or just added to already available - many practice nurses and pharmacists probably require little training or maybe just in handling the vaccine - none at all probably for giving the jabs.

Clearly 6,000 / day is vastly inadequate - it'd take 5 years. The rollout plan has it ramping up to 6 times more than that - 250,000 doses / week by late July.

antonknee

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#2680271 25-Mar-2021 11:40

sbiddle:

The fact a MIQ employee (not the family member) is no longer classed as CT is a fairly significant change.

I'm unsure why you're so worried about any change in definition? It's really not significant IMO - happy to have my mind changed if you can explain why this is significant and the actual impact of it? Note that the specific definition of CT does not have an effect on alert level changes, as even AL1 allows that "Isolated local transmission could be occurring in New Zealand"

Community transmission seems to be defined as "spread within our communities". The implication here is if you pick it up in MIQ or at the border it's by definition not community spread. If someone else picks it up from you (eg via the supermarket or whatever) then that's community transmission. So if anything, defining the MIQ worker as not CT seems more accurate to me?

frankv

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#2680272 25-Mar-2021 11:42

DS248:

Interesting C-19 daily case trends for jurisdictions with some of the highest vaccination rates.

Clearly in most cases non-pharmacological measures still seem to be, or have been dominant.

Israel is perhaps the clearest case where vaccinations appear to have had a significant impact. Their daily cases started falling significantly mid-late Jan when 30% - 40% of their population had had a first dose. Now with 108 doses per 100 people, new C-19 cases have dropped to (relatively) very low numbers.

Looking at the graph for Israel, the downslope at the end of the "second wave" in Sept/Oct 2020 is at least as steep as the downslope Jan-Mar 2021, and daily new cases are still higher than in Nov 2020. So it's clear that other measures are at least as effective as widespread vaccination. In fact, I think it's incorrect to claim that vaccinations are the cause of the current reduction -- I'd ascribe it much more to the month-long total lockdown, and say that (regrettably) vaccinations have had negligible effect.

Wikipedia says this about the social distancing measures implemented in Israel for this "third wave" of covid:

During the first week of January 2021, there were over 8,000 new cases daily.[165] On 5 January 2021, the [Israeli] government announced a two-week long, complete lockdown, effective midnight Thursday 7 January 2021.[166] The tightened restrictions include:

Gatherings limited to 5 people indoors or 10 people outdoors, except for funerals, weddings and Brit milahs which gathering limited to 10 people indoors or 20 people outdoors
Closing the entire education system including preschools, except special education. Grade schools to continue online schooling.
Travel abroad allowed only for essential purposes.[167]
On 19 January 2021 the tight lockdown was extended until the end of January.[168] The tight lockdown was initially extended until 5 February 2021,[169] and then until 7 February 2021.[170]

Closure of Ben-Gurion airport

On 24 January 2021, the government announced a week-long ban on most incoming and outgoing flights, effective on Monday January 25 at midnight, to prevent entry of new variants into Israel.[171] The flight restrictions were extended multiple times: until 5 February 2021,[172] then until 21 February 2021,[173] and later until 6 March 2021. Daily flights, for new immigrants and for Israelis stranded outside Israel, were available as of 22 February 2021, for up to 2,000 passengers.[174] The number of daily entries was increased to 3,000 on 7 March 2021.[175]

Purim night curfew

The government approved a curfew from 8:30 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. for the three nights of 25-27 February, in an attempt to limit spread of the virus during Purim holiday activities.[176]

Exit strategy

First stage

On 7 February 2021 Israel began easing lockdown restrictions:[177]

Restrictions on travel within and between towns were lifted
Workplaces that do not receive customers were reopened
Open-air nature reserves and parks were reopened
Second stage

During the third lockdown many Israelis were vaccinated against COVID-19. On 21 February 2021, the government implemented green passes for those who were fully vaccinated or were infected and recovered.[178] Green passes are required for the following:

entry into gyms, theaters, hotels, and concerts
entry into synagogues registered to the plan
Third stage

On 7 March 2021, restrictions were eased further. Rules include:[175]

Gatherings of up to 20 people indoors and 50 outdoors are allowed
In-person interactions with the public for non-essential services are allowed (if the service cannot be provided remotely)
Temperature checks for those entering public locations or businesses are canceled
Events of up to 300 people and up to 50% venue capacity are allowed, with up to 5% non-green-pass-holders with negative test results allowed
Indoor dining at restaurants allowed at 75% capacity with 2 meters between tables, for up to 100 green pass holders. Outdoor seating of up to 100 outdoors (no green pass required)
Places of worship not registered with green pass limited to 20 people inside, 50 outside. Those registered limited to 50% capacity (fixed seating) or 1 person per each 7 square meters.
Tourist attractions open for green pass holders.
Entry of Israeli citizens via Ben Gurion airport to increase to 3000 daily. Exit available to all those holding vaccination or recovery certificates.
Entry into Israel via land crossings with Jorden: open twice weekly.

It will be interesting to see how well the widespread vaccination controls the disease from now on. But it appears that they are still more or less at L2 or L3 in the NZ scheme of things, so it appears that they don't have much faith in vaccination yet.

wellygary

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#2680276 25-Mar-2021 11:48

Fred99:

You know we have no shortage of vaccine in NZ how?

I'll be waiting for months for my shots because vaccine isn't here. The statement yesterday (IIRC without going back to check exact numbers) said there are 3,000 trained "vaccinators" ready to start, 200 already working doing MIQ staff, next household contacts of MIQ, then it starts in earnest, and the reason they don't want to ramp up too early is because they don't want to have to ramp down. I assume they're going to use NHI numbers to send us all notices in advance to show up at a place and time to get our shots. If they then have to "postpone" it'll be a right mess.

I bloody well hope not,

I would assume once we get to the mass rollout it will be like getting the flu jab, you call ( or use an online tool) and are able able to book a time and place that actually suits you.... ( providing there is spare capacity on the day and time you want)

There might also be the provision for mass rollups in places like sports stadiums - but I think they are still thinking about how that might work...

sbiddle

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#2680297 25-Mar-2021 11:56

Fred99:

You know we have no shortage of vaccine in NZ how?

I'll be waiting for months for my shots because vaccine isn't here. The statement yesterday (IIRC without going back to check exact numbers) said there are 3,000 trained "vaccinators" ready to start, 200 already working doing MIQ staff, next household contacts of MIQ, then it starts in earnest, and the reason they don't want to ramp up too early is because they don't want to have to ramp down. I assume they're going to use NHI numbers to send us all notices in advance to show up at a place and time to get our shots. If they then have to "postpone" it'll be a right mess.

The MIQ workers have free rein to go wherever they like too. I think the decision to change classification is fine, makes no practical difference, they (household contacts of MIQ workers) fit more neatly into the same category as the MIQ workers themselves in terms of risk and contact tracing than random and potentially difficult to trace to origin cases of CT.

We know there is no shortage of vaccines in NZ because the MoH and minister have provided that information. When media started asking questions around why our rollout was slow we didn't get answers, we simply had the MoH decide they would no longer provide the data. That makes no sense and is the sort of thing that starts to make people feel there is some sort of agenda or story that's being hidden.

The very same thing happened in the middle of last year. When total MIQ capacity was shown and media started questioning why there were so many empty rooms the MoH / MBIE simply responded by modifying the data so media couldn't use it as the basis for questions.

There could be very good reasons why we have several hundred thousand doses sitting in freezers. We may know our time frames for deliveries and these could be required for the next month as an example. It could also be that we've got plenty more coming in and as a country we're simply incompetent when it comes to organising a vaccine rollout. If it highly likely that it is the former, but when data is hidden so questions can't be asked to prevent open and honest media reporting then nobody wins.

The definition of a CT case vs a border case makes a huge difference. A CT case is somebody who has access to the community and can engage with community and visit premises that could become points of interest - which is exactly what happened with the MIQ cleaner who visited a Countdown store (not to be confused with the other family member who tested +ve and later -ve that worked at a different Countdown store).

The simple fact a MIQ worker visited a Countdown store that was later made a location of interest, and Covid tracer app notifications were sent out to people who were at the premises at the time makes this a very clear CT case which is the exact definition used previously.

Considering the data is still not 100% conclusive over transmission and viral loadings for vaccinated people (especially for somebody who had not fully completed the period for full antibodies responses to occur after the second dose) it's really hard to not think that somebody simply wants to downplay the relevance of this case.

Fred99

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#2680298 25-Mar-2021 11:57

frankv:

It will be interesting to see how well the widespread vaccination controls the disease from now on. But it appears that they are still more or less at L2 or L3 in the NZ scheme of things, so it appears that they don't have much faith in vaccination yet.

That's a smart move and an indictment on lack of global action and/or political stupidity if every country with widespread CT doesn't do the same.

The variants showing signs of immune escape are a serious concern, the fewer cases of any C-19 variant there are anywhere, the less chance we create a big problem. Even if it's inevitable that at some future time the present vaccines won't work well or possibly not at all, then the longer we can delay that improves the chance that we'll have proven modified vaccines available in time to nail outbreaks if and when they occur.

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