2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2713800 27-May-2021 13:48

Fred99:

"The contact tracing is working harder and faster than ever before to ringfence first, second and third "rings" of possible transmission, but the variant virus is outpacing them." (paraphrased from what they're saying).

You could be cynical and say that they're "making excuses" for systemic failure. I think what they're saying is true, they've been world-leading with this in the past, and with that they're able to see transmission patterns for a specific variant in a community which can't be clearly seen in other first-world countries. WHO has been wildly wrong with giving advice on "variants of concern".

If you can transmit the disease within 24 hours of onset of symptoms, then what we've been doing will fail. Some (but not all) people may think that onset of a sore throat or slight fever is reason to book a test, but by the time you've booked and received a test - let alone received the result - it's too late.

TBH, I think the problem is that the cases have been very mobile in many crowded locations,

Also VIC have still not got a mandatory single QR code system ... (Ironically this was due to start tomorrow)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-07/victoria-moves-to-single-qr-code-system-compliance-concerns/100121552

Fred99

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#2713801 27-May-2021 13:49

frankv:

Fred99:

Contact tracing is showing that person to person transmission is happening in one day from onset of symptoms (vs 5 days typical for past C-19 variants).

I thought that asymptomatic transmission was always an issue?

I think that's been a minor part of the pandemic spread. Someone with no symptoms could transmit the disease, but viral shedding tends to be very low. OTOH if you're shedding lots of virions and thus highly infectious- you're probably going to be feeling sick, and if you're feeling sick with C19, then you'll be shedding lots of virions.

If asymptomatic transmission was a major part of transmission (as was thought by some a year ago), then we'd have probably never succeeded with elimination here.

Scott3

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#2713803 27-May-2021 13:53

Watching the victory acting premier's press conference was pretty scary.

Time from infection to symptomatic can be as low as one day with this stain (historically about 5 days), and doubling time for the stain is much much faster.

On the plus side, a quicker strain should mean lock-downs can be shorter.

On the negitive side, there is much more opportunity for the situation to quickly spiral out of control...

He basically said, that leaks of nastier strains will keep happening from isolation hotels (they are pushing for dedicated cabin style facilitates for people from high risk countries at least). And that they will need to keep dealing with outbreaks until their vaccination roll out is largely done.

Draws a bit more attention to what we should be doing in NZ. Basically we need to Batten down the hatches, cross our fingers, and hope we can ride out the next 2 - 3 months until large numbers of vaccine doses land. Hopefully we get lucky and don't need to snuff out any outbreaks in that time. New Strains mean the game has changed from what we have beaten before...

I think the time for covid-19 testing for green zone flights from Aussie is now. And that we should be taking steps to reduce the numbers of people coming through our MIQ facilities (especially those from medium to high risk locations).

Fred99

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#2713809 27-May-2021 13:59

wellygary:

TBH, I think the problem is that the cases have been very mobile in many crowded locations,

I'm sure that's a major factor with Melbourne. It's by far the most heavily centrally urbanised city in Australasia with a climate that keeps people indoors. (Sydney's generally more spread out, and the weather's better).

But I think the problem is that the the B1617 variant may have adapted as I'd expect - the virus eventually finding a selective advantage to evade how we tried to slow it down. IOW, what we were doing worked, but this outbreak seems to be indicating that's now inadequate. We need to sharpen our response.

Edit : Comment made now at Vic press conference, that if the B117 (UK) variant had an R0 about 50% higher than early variants, that gave B117 an estimated at 3.5, then this variant seems to have an R0 higher than 5.

(note that these R0 figures aren't the theoretical R0 in "naive" community behaving normally and with zero immunity, but observed R0 in a community that's already changed behaviour to limit transmission, or has some immunity where vaccines have been rolled out or they've had many cases)

(The vaccines can stop it).

Fred99

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#2713842 27-May-2021 15:10

Just slightly off-topic - and verging on politics - but a worthwhile warning about how C-19 related CT is being used in an attempt to create chaos.

From a German journalist:

Very interesting: an agency contacts me and asks if I want to be part of an "information campaign". It's about sharing a link to allegedly leaked documents on corona vaccination deaths. For money. Agency headquarters: London. Residence of the CEO: Moscow.

The same "agency" also contacted journalists and influencers in France with the offer.

Fred99

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#2713846 27-May-2021 15:21

Reports from France that all the "employees of the agency" had weird linkedin profiles, and all had worked in Russia. All the profiles were removed from linkedin.

If you want to destroy foreign democracies by bringing down governments, then targeting their public health systems to create chaos and distrust would be an effective way to do it.

Or it could have a simpler explanation - that the marketing department for the Sputnik vaccine got a bit too "creative".

Then there's Russia's "official" C-19 death toll vs excess deaths:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/russia-records-more-than-400000-excess-deaths-during-pandemic-reuters-2021-04-30/

Oblivian

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#2713996 27-May-2021 16:42

Minister is going live shortly from beehive....

The 72hr decision with luck. And not something else

/Update:

7 day pause alignment with lockdown

Health Notice issued. Making anyone in NZ who was in Melbourne since the 20th. MUST isolate where they are and arrange testing. Those who returned from 11May and been to a place of interest must isolate, arrange test, await result.

Start crossing them fingers people adhere to it and go negative. ~5000 potentially fitting the bill.

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Handle9

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#2714001 27-May-2021 16:54

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Agree with that, its here to stay, and that can only help vaccine acceptance

And in terms of restrictions on movement and gathering, then even when the general public has been vaccinated, rest homes and other vulnerable populations will probably need to be protected with extra measures in place. As much as anybody may want the fine details now - nobody really knows.

Good luck with enforcing long term restrictions when there are minimal impacts on most of the population.

Fred99

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#2714002 27-May-2021 16:55

Oblivian:

Minister is going live shortly from beehive....

The 72hr decision with luck. And not something else

Bit more than 72 hours.

They're taking this seriously.

Anybody who's returned from Melbourne from 20-25th required to quarantine at home and must be tested.

More measures to be announced in the next 24 hours, including possible requirement for pre-flight testing.

Oblivian

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#2714003 27-May-2021 16:57

Fred99:

Bit more than 72 hours.

They're taking this seriously.

Anybody who's returned from Melbourne from 20-25th required to quarantine at home and must be tested.

More measures to be announced in the next 24 hours, including possible requirement for pre-flight testing.

I was referring to 'times up' on the initial one. And decision was to be announced. Like it has :)

Approx 5000 targets isn't something to spit at.

Fred99

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#2714009 27-May-2021 16:59

Handle9:

Fred99:

And in terms of restrictions on movement and gathering, then even when the general public has been vaccinated, rest homes and other vulnerable populations will probably need to be protected with extra measures in place. As much as anybody may want the fine details now - nobody really knows.

Good luck with enforcing long term restrictions when there are minimal impacts on most of the population.

I guess that depends on many things, including what "long term" means and what else develops in the meantime. (there's still a lot of work being done WRT anti-viral treatments - which might avoid having to make a decision sometime to simply throw old and vulnerable people to the wolves)

Fred99

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#2714014 27-May-2021 17:07

Oblivian:

Approx 5000 targets isn't something to spit at.

At least hundreds won't comply unless there's risk of a penalty they won't like, and they know there's a high chance they'll be caught and nailed.

tdgeek

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#2714032 27-May-2021 17:49

Fred99:

Bit more than 72 hours.

They're taking this seriously.

Anybody who's returned from Melbourne from 20-25th required to quarantine at home and must be tested.

More measures to be announced in the next 24 hours, including possible requirement for pre-flight testing.

5000 of them. How many will comply?

ezbee

2405 posts

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#2714044 27-May-2021 18:06

tdgeek:

Fred99:

Bit more than 72 hours.

They're taking this seriously.

Anybody who's returned from Melbourne from 20-25th required to quarantine at home and must be tested.

More measures to be announced in the next 24 hours, including possible requirement for pre-flight testing.

5000 of them. How many will comply?

We shall see soon, if our testing numbers go up dramatically then they are following advice to get tested and good hope they might isolate.

Any bets on what tomorrows testing numbers will reveal ?

tdgeek

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#2714051 27-May-2021 18:20

ezbee:

We shall see soon, if our testing numbers go up dramatically then they are following advice to get tested and good hope they might isolate.

Any bets on what tomorrows testing numbers will reveal ?

4998? :-)

I guess the next question is supporting those still over there, as in free MIQ. I can see this not being over quickly, given the stats Fred advised, the spread, the over 80 places of interest. It makes the infrequent MIQ leaks seem like rounding errors, which IMO they are. If the bubble was a bad idea or if it was unfortunately compromised by the more infective variants, thats for another day

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