2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2738064 2-Jul-2021 19:30

BlinkyBill: This post lacks any critical assessment and therefore is of no value to the discourse.

Which is why it fits in so well :-)

Technofreak

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#2738134 2-Jul-2021 21:04

There are stats coming out of the US showing that unvaccinated people make up 99% of the deaths from Covid 19 when they represent less than 50% of the adult population.

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mattwnz

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#2738139 2-Jul-2021 21:27

Batman:
haven't looked at it in detail - if there's an issue i'm sure the medical community will generate pushback vs PM of Australia - watch this space

Australia does seem to have mucked up with these latest out breaks. Shows Sydney delayed their lockdown for too long with the number of new community cases they are getting. It is a bit of a mess and the lockdown will be longer as a result. Fiji is also potentially heading for catastrophe

They need to just close the bubble IMHO

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#2738249 3-Jul-2021 07:39

KrazyKid:

Here a summary of what Scott Morrison announced here according to the ABC Australia:

National Cabinet has agreed to halve the number of people allowed into Australia each week and to set up vaccination targets.
By July 14, international arrivals will be capped at 3,035 people a week, down from 6,370. Commercial flight numbers will be cut, but Mr Morrison said the Commonwealth, in response to this, would increase the number of repatriation flights.
He also announced the federal government would conduct a trial of a shorter seven-day quarantine period with a small number of vaccinated travellers,
instead of 14 days. Mr Morrison said South Australia had flagged its willingness to work with the government on the trial.
As for vaccination targets, the Prime Minister said a percentage target would be decided once modelling showed how many people would need the jab for it to be effective against the spread of the Delta variant.
He said everyone would be offered vaccination by the end of the year.
The group of state and territory leaders did agree to a four-phase plan. We're in the first phase.
Reaching the vaccine target in the second phase would mean international travel caps would be lifted for unvaccinated and vaccinated travellers.
Lockdowns in our current phase will only be used as a last resort.
The third phase sees Australia dealing with COVID-19 like it does the seasonal flu and the fourth phase a return to pre-pandemic travel and life.
Mr Morrison would not put a timeline on when he hoped Australia would reach that final phase.
Be interesting what the vaccinated 7 day quarantine trial means for us. They are talking about isolating at home with checks on those isolating.

Jacinda Arden has already stated our current plan is a phases opening to countries and we are also aiming for a 'end of the year' vaccination completion.
I believe she also said more work is being done now to what our long term opening up plan is.

Doesn't seem we are that far apart.

I can't really see any difference at all. The plans were already elimination, which is working via MIQ with the expected leaks. Vaccinations and when they are done, open up the border. Whats changed? He is halving arrivals, that seems to be just about halving the outbreak risk and that's fair enough. But other than that, elimination as best they can do, vaccines, open up.

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#2738250 3-Jul-2021 07:43

According to a University of Oxford press release, the paper found that "both 'mixed' schedules (Pfizer-BioNTech followed by Oxford-AstraZeneca, and Oxford-AstraZeneca followed by Pfizer-BioNTech) induced high concentrations of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG protein when doses were administered four weeks apart."

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/02/health/germany-covid-vaccines-mixing-intl/index.html

tdgeek

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#2738251 3-Jul-2021 07:44

mattwnz:

I think what was announced sounded very political, to try an appease people against the latest lockdowns. Especially as it was announced just after half of all Australians entered another lockdown. So I take it all with a massive grain of salt.

The problem is they appear to be doing this when they at 50% vaccination. IMO it needs to be a lot higher. They also seem to be promising no future lockdowns, unless the health system is under strain. I understand Australians health system has more capacity than NZs. I don't think NZ is on the same page, as I would think NZ would need the vaccinations to be more than 80%, or into the 90's to let Covid into the community. The problem is getting everyone to do it, as it could potentailly create reservoirs of the virus (eg if children don't get vaccinated)

If NZ had followed the rest of the world, they projected 10's of thousands of deaths. The economy overall hasn't been that affected in NZ due to eliminating it, so it hasn't been as badly affected as we were lead to believe it would be. It seems covid countries have been worse affected overall in terms of their economies and deaths. Disneyland was closed for over a year in the US and has only recently reopened. At least our tourism has been operating at about 50% from locals.

Yep, thats how I see it. Taking the existing plan, and detailing it, to appear to be making progress. The end game is we are all vaccinated, and we live with it thereafter. Thats not new.

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#2738253 3-Jul-2021 07:47

mattwnz:
Batman:

haven't looked at it in detail - if there's an issue i'm sure the medical community will generate pushback vs PM of Australia - watch this space

Australia does seem to have mucked up with these latest out breaks. Shows Sydney delayed their lockdown for too long with the number of new community cases they are getting. It is a bit of a mess and the lockdown will be longer as a result. Fiji is also potentially heading for catastrophe

They need to just close the bubble IMHO

Yep. Flouting, lack of interest, border crossings seem all too common there. Our culture is meek by comparison, more compliant, nice guys, that seems to be the differentiating factor for managing our risk.

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#2738271 3-Jul-2021 08:23

The Sydney taxi driver may not be patient zero. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-patient-zero-limo-drivers-family-speaks-out/C6U6FKJBWYV2KJQZONYGAGYFNE/

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#2738274 3-Jul-2021 08:39

that's so unfair that he gets so much - or even any - blame. he didn't seem to have done anything wrong

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#2738285 3-Jul-2021 10:03

What vaccination rate do we need to achieve something close to herd immunity?

According to reported NZ modelling, it's above 95% and therefore a pretty hopeless prospect:

modellers think at least 80-90 per cent of New Zealanders will need to be vaccinated to reach population immunity. If Delta continues {to increase} ... that could climb to 97 per cent, according to estimates released this week. That makes reaching population immunity somewhere between highly unlikely and impossible.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125580487/eliminate-or-learn-to-live-with-it--whats-the-covid-endgame

In Australia, they seem to be a lot more optimistic:

James Cook University infectious diseases physician Emma McBryde has completed independent modelling on the topic. From her research she said 80 per cent of the population needed to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity for the Delta version of the virus
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-03/australias-covid-vaccination-targets-an-unknown/100263414

80% or 97%?
That's a huge difference: one is a 'stretch goal' the other is practically impossible

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#2738288 3-Jul-2021 10:27

tdgeek:

I can't really see any difference at all. The plans were already elimination, which is working via MIQ with the expected leaks. Vaccinations and when they are done, open up the border. Whats changed? He is halving arrivals, that seems to be just about halving the outbreak risk and that's fair enough. But other than that, elimination as best they can do, vaccines, open up.

Australia have never had an elimination strategy, they believe it is impossible and pointless.Their strategy is, and always has been suppression of the virus until sufficient numbers are vaccinated.

NZ is one of only a handful of countries that have ever said their strategy was elimination (Taiwan being one of the others).

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#2738291 3-Jul-2021 10:39

PolicyGuy:

What vaccination rate do we need to achieve something close to herd immunity?

According to reported NZ modelling, it's above 95% and therefore a pretty hopeless prospect:

Remember Te Punaha Matatini modelling told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year. It's pretty clear now that figure is simply not true, and that even if we'd followed a similar strategy as most other countries that our total deaths would have potentially hit 10,000 in a worst case scenario.

Any modelling has to be taken with a grain of salt because it's just that - somebody's idea of what *they* think is going to happen. Right now real world data from multiple countries is suggesting their herd immunity figures are way off the mark.

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#2738369 3-Jul-2021 12:16

sbiddle:

Remember Te Punaha Matatini modelling told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year. It's pretty clear now that figure is simply not true, and that even if we'd followed a similar strategy as most other countries that our total deaths would have potentially hit 10,000 in a worst case scenario.

Any modelling has to be taken with a grain of salt because it's just that - somebody's idea of what *they* think is going to happen. Right now real world data from multiple countries is suggesting their herd immunity figures are way off the mark.

So what? Models are, by definition, imperfect representations of the situation being modelled, based on assumptions.

Perhaps you could elucidate us and the PhD’s, Professors and other professional modellers at TPM how their modelling is faulty and could be improved?