2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2738381 3-Jul-2021 12:33

Batman:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/300348786/covid19-fiji-records-5-more-deaths-404-new-cases

Only catch there is they have been pulling strings with numbers. Unless its 100% covid caused (no pre existing known issues). It's 'other illness'. And so far, those numbers have been kept separate/not reported so skewing the likely hood of how many are as a result of it suddenly causing complications and being the likely cause, vs had they not caught it and possibly be still here.

Of the five deaths, one was certified to have been caused by Covid, one caused by other illnesses while three are being investigated.

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#2738384 3-Jul-2021 12:41

BlinkyBill:

sbiddle:

Remember Te Punaha Matatini modelling told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year. It's pretty clear now that figure is simply not true, and that even if we'd followed a similar strategy as most other countries that our total deaths would have potentially hit 10,000 in a worst case scenario.

Any modelling has to be taken with a grain of salt because it's just that - somebody's idea of what *they* think is going to happen. Right now real world data from multiple countries is suggesting their herd immunity figures are way off the mark.

So what? Models are, by definition, imperfect representations of the situation being modelled, based on assumptions.

Perhaps you could elucidate us and the PhD’s, Professors and other professional modellers at TPM how their modelling is faulty and could be improved?

Rather than me needing to do that, reading the report itself and reading other global modelling report that have come out in recent weeks (I've fully read 6 in the past week or so) should give you some fairly good ideas as to why they've ended up with the results that they have done which are vastly different to pretty much every other report out there.

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#2738390 3-Jul-2021 12:54

And my reasons for suggesting you take an hour or so to read these reports is that if you genuinely have an interest in Covid there are truly lots of fascinating things in these reports, along with some very wild assumptions being made by some modellers compared to others. I don't want to influence your thinking.

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#2738403 3-Jul-2021 13:27

NSW 35 cases

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-35-new-community-cases/BGPP6RBO2ID7AAVQO7DBK2YWQA/

Fred99

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#2738414 3-Jul-2021 14:23

Batman:

NSW 35 cases

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-35-new-community-cases/BGPP6RBO2ID7AAVQO7DBK2YWQA/

Doesn't matter any more.

If it does get out of hand, Scot Morrison says that was always part of the plan. If they ringfence it, Scot Morrison says that was always part of the plan.

100% Pure NZ might need to opt out of the bubble - it's much to early to implement an exit plan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-03/morrison-covid-strategy-vaccine-rollout-missing-numbers/100264136

Fred99

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#2738415 3-Jul-2021 14:28

sbiddle:

Remember Te Punaha Matatini modelling told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year. It's pretty clear now that figure is simply not true, and that even if we'd followed a similar strategy as most other countries that our total deaths would have potentially hit 10,000 in a worst case scenario.

Any modelling has to be taken with a grain of salt because it's just that - somebody's idea of what *they* think is going to happen. Right now real world data from multiple countries is suggesting their herd immunity figures are way off the mark.

Based on the evidence of observed case fatality rate at that time, that was a very good estimate.

10,000 would have been "wishful thinking" based - not evidence based.

Technofreak

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#2738422 3-Jul-2021 15:13

Fred99:

sbiddle:

Remember Te Punaha Matatini modelling told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year. It's pretty clear now that figure is simply not true, and that even if we'd followed a similar strategy as most other countries that our total deaths would have potentially hit 10,000 in a worst case scenario.

Any modelling has to be taken with a grain of salt because it's just that - somebody's idea of what *they* think is going to happen. Right now real world data from multiple countries is suggesting their herd immunity figures are way off the mark.

Based on the evidence of observed case fatality rate at that time, that was a very good estimate.

10,000 would have been "wishful thinking" based - not evidence based.

The fatality rate has never been close to the original models. It has been widely acknowledged that the initial modelling was quite wrong.

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#2738425 3-Jul-2021 15:19

Fred99:

Batman:

NSW 35 cases

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-35-new-community-cases/BGPP6RBO2ID7AAVQO7DBK2YWQA/

Doesn't matter any more.

If it does get out of hand, Scot Morrison says that was always part of the plan. If they ringfence it, Scot Morrison says that was always part of the plan.

100% Pure NZ might need to opt out of the bubble - it's much to early to implement an exit plan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-03/morrison-covid-strategy-vaccine-rollout-missing-numbers/100264136

You could almost take out Australia and replace it with New Zealand and take out Scott Morrison and replace his name with Jacinda Ardern and that article would pretty well apply to what's going on here. We just haven't got to stating that we cannot eliminate and will need to live with it, ........ yet.

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Fred99

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#2738427 3-Jul-2021 15:27

Technofreak:

Fred99:

Based on the evidence of observed case fatality rate at that time, that was a very good estimate.

10,000 would have been "wishful thinking" based - not evidence based.

The fatality rate has never been close to the original models. It has been widely acknowledged that the initial modelling was quite wrong.

I've highlighted the words you obviously missed or misread.

(and it might have been much closer to the CFR of SARS or MERS based on data from China or elsewhere as limited testing was missing most mild or asymptomatic infections)

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#2738429 3-Jul-2021 15:27

Technofreak:

You could almost take out Australia and replace it with New Zealand and take out Scott Morrison and replace his name with Jacinda Ardern and that article would pretty well apply to what's going on here. We just haven't got to stating that we cannot eliminate and will need to live with it, ........ yet.

In credit Bloomfield did try twice, and after being shut down by the PM obviously took the hint.

Fred99

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#2738430 3-Jul-2021 15:31

Technofreak:

We just haven't got to stating that we cannot eliminate and will need to live with it, ........ yet.

We most certainly have. It's just far too early to formulate a precise plan. We have the advantage of time - being able to learn from ongoing mistakes and successes of others.

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#2738467 3-Jul-2021 15:53

Fred99:

Batman:

NSW 35 cases

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-35-new-community-cases/BGPP6RBO2ID7AAVQO7DBK2YWQA/

Doesn't matter any more.

If it does get out of hand, Scot Morrison says that was always part of the plan. If they ringfence it, Scot Morrison says that was always part of the plan.

100% Pure NZ might need to opt out of the bubble - it's much to early to implement an exit plan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-03/morrison-covid-strategy-vaccine-rollout-missing-numbers/100264136

It's very interesting that so many people have been so quick to attack ScoMo over many of yesterday's announcements - a strategy that was mostly developed by the National cabinet, not him. He had to concede a lot to actually get to that point with 5 of the 8 states and territories currently being red.

He may be the PM but for many things Covid related he has in effect lost a lot of power.

SJB

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#2738506 3-Jul-2021 18:12

The epidemic shows up the weaknesses of a federal system. Not all pulling in the same direction, sometimes just for political reasons and not in the interest of the electorate.

Same in the US and to a certain extent with the devolved parliaments in the UK all having different rules.

mattwnz

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#2738509 3-Jul-2021 18:26

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Australia does seem to have mucked up with these latest out breaks. Shows Sydney delayed their lockdown for too long with the number of new community cases they are getting. It is a bit of a mess and the lockdown will be longer as a result. Fiji is also potentially heading for catastrophe

They need to just close the bubble IMHO

Yep. Flouting, lack of interest, border crossings seem all too common there. Our culture is meek by comparison, more compliant, nice guys, that seems to be the differentiating factor for managing our risk.

That is probably why it is worked here, and they have outbreaks occurring over there. We also tend to look after people here better, eg. We have universal super no matter what peoples assets or earnings are. They have to fine people big money over there for flouting the rules, and they are a lot more ruthless, maybe because people are just less trusting of authority etc. There does seem to be a lot of criticism over there with their use of hotels and MIQ which I understand are the source of these leaks.

alexx

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#2738514 3-Jul-2021 18:54

I don’t think any country is successfully “living with” the virus yet.

The US has a high vaccination rate and they’ve just entered summer, but they have close to 300 deaths a day, or not quite 1 death per million population per day.

Translate that to an NZ sized population and that’s 4 deaths per day, or close to 1500 in a year. We’ve had 4 covid deaths since May 2020 and that included someone that just arrived in MIQ and was transferred to hospital before they died.

Is anyone seriously advocating for a change in policy where there could be as many as 1500 deaths in a year, so that it might be easier for business travellers and the tourist industry?

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