2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2738518 3-Jul-2021 19:29

What is the likelihood that should Sydney balloon in cases by Monday we'll shut down travel bubble?

We've seen it a few times already whereby travelers from Sydney come here through another State and it appears quite a few of even their classic COVID symptomatic citizens are not staying home before getting a test and many in Sydney's suburbs are flouting the mask mandates etc.

Wellington was absurdly lucky, I do wish to test our luck once more.

Oblivian

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#2738520 3-Jul-2021 19:33

Queensland has 5, and easing their stay at home and mask orders tonight. With the hope it speaks to our looming decision at end of blanket bubble

So wouldn't put it by.

Meanwhile

"It's very frustrating not knowing the timeline. It's hard to think that you're stuck here, as a New Zealander, and they're not doing anything to get us home.

"We're out of lockdown here and we've got no cases here [on the Gold Coast] … we're vaccinated … why can't they resume [quarantine-free flights] on Sunday, or give us a date. Something so we know when we can get our tests. We've been stuck here a week already."

Handle9

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#2738521 3-Jul-2021 19:34

alexx:
I don’t think any country is successfully “living with” the virus yet.

The US has a high vaccination rate and they’ve just entered summer, but they have close to 300 deaths a day, or not quite 1 death per million population per day.

Translate that to an NZ sized population and that’s 4 deaths per day, or close to 1500 in a year. We’ve had 4 covid deaths since May 2020 and that included someone that just arrived in MIQ and was transferred to hospital before they died.

Is anyone seriously advocating for a change in policy where there could be as many as 1500 deaths in a year, so that it might be easier for business travellers and the tourist industry?

Influenza kills ~500 a year and there was never a call to completely isolate the country.

The vast majority (90% or more) of covid deaths and serious harm is in unvaccinated people. Once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated then the health system needs to be able to cope with whatever is left.

Covid isn't going away and sooner or later will become established in NZ.

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#2738530 3-Jul-2021 19:59

alexx:

I don’t think any country is successfully “living with” the virus yet.

The US has a high vaccination rate and they’ve just entered summer, but they have close to 300 deaths a day, or not quite 1 death per million population per day.

Translate that to an NZ sized population and that’s 4 deaths per day, or close to 1500 in a year. We’ve had 4 covid deaths since May 2020 and that included someone that just arrived in MIQ and was transferred to hospital before they died.

Is anyone seriously advocating for a change in policy where there could be as many as 1500 deaths in a year, so that it might be easier for business travellers and the tourist industry?

The US doesn't have a particularly high vaccination rate across the board and won't meet some of their targets. That's why they're going to be a truly fascinating case study over the next months or two

They have some states which are great but they also have many states that are really poor with Arkansas being one example that I saw on TV earlier today where full vaccination rates are only 34% - and it's these places where the high case numbers and deaths are occuring.

We have an estimated 500 deaths per year from influenza (which dropped to zero last year) and that doesn't seem to worry us. The simple fact is whenever we do open up we are going to get Covid cases and we will get deaths from Covid. Hopefully nowhere near the 1500 per year level, but we'll certainly have far more deaths per year than the 4 we've had in the past 12 months.

tdgeek

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#2738590 4-Jul-2021 08:07

alexx:

I don’t think any country is successfully “living with” the virus yet.

The US has a high vaccination rate and they’ve just entered summer, but they have close to 300 deaths a day, or not quite 1 death per million population per day.

Translate that to an NZ sized population and that’s 4 deaths per day, or close to 1500 in a year. We’ve had 4 covid deaths since May 2020 and that included someone that just arrived in MIQ and was transferred to hospital before they died.

Is anyone seriously advocating for a change in policy where there could be as many as 1500 deaths in a year, so that it might be easier for business travellers and the tourist industry?

To be fair, the discussion is living with it after everyone is vaccinated. If other countries have a dollar each way by saying we are still vaccinating AND living with it, the stats speak for themselves.

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#2738605 4-Jul-2021 08:41

looks like Austria opened up on 1 July and bringing in Covid QR passport

was watching F1 and fans galore

https://www.thelocal.at/20210701/update-is-austria-relaxing-coronavirus-measures-too-quickly-as-delta-variant-spreads/

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/austria-ready-to-start-issuing-eu-covid-19-vaccination-passports/

Fred99

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#2738613 4-Jul-2021 09:24

Handle9:

Influenza kills ~500 a year and there was never a call to completely isolate the country.

The vast majority (90% or more) of covid deaths and serious harm is in unvaccinated people. Once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated then the health system needs to be able to cope with whatever is left.

Covid isn't going away and sooner or later will become established in NZ.

Influenza is several diseases not one, and as a stated cause of death, the annual toll in NZ is much lower than 500. probably closer to 20.

"Established" should mean like mumps or measles, not eliminated - but not having ongoing endemic transmission either.

Unlike flu, that's probably achievable - if enough people get vaccinated. Efficacy of flu vaccine is only about 1/2 as good as the C-19 vaccines - and that's on a good year, and C-19 is many times more deadly.

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#2738621 4-Jul-2021 10:21

sbiddle:

Rather than me needing to do that, reading the report itself and reading other global modelling report that have come out in recent weeks (I've fully read 6 in the past week or so) should give you some fairly good ideas as to why they've ended up with the results that they have done which are vastly different to pretty much every other report out there.

Thank you. Looking through their website I couldn’t find the Te Punaha Matatini model “that told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year”. Which model predicted this?

sbiddle

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#2738644 4-Jul-2021 13:19

BlinkyBill:

sbiddle:

Rather than me needing to do that, reading the report itself and reading other global modelling report that have come out in recent weeks (I've fully read 6 in the past week or so) should give you some fairly good ideas as to why they've ended up with the results that they have done which are vastly different to pretty much every other report out there.

Thank you. Looking through their website I couldn’t find the Te Punaha Matatini model “that told us 80,000 people would die in NZ without a lockdown last year”. Which model predicted this?

I haven't read that report since early on in lockdown - but that report and numbers were one of the biggest news stories for days at the start of our lockdown. I'm not comparing that report to others overseas now, I'm comparing their recent report about vaccination targets for delta vs the many reports and models for vaccination targets released overseas in the past month or so.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120604818/new-model-shows-coronavirus-could-kill-80000-kiwis-without-lockdown

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-80000-kiwis-could-die-from-coronavirus-if-no-lockdown-research/HIGTOED4UKBW5SF2VRQUO3BOOA/

Handle9

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#2738661 4-Jul-2021 14:50

Fred99:
Handle9:

Influenza kills ~500 a year and there was never a call to completely isolate the country.

The vast majority (90% or more) of covid deaths and serious harm is in unvaccinated people. Once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated then the health system needs to be able to cope with whatever is left.

Covid isn't going away and sooner or later will become established in NZ.

Influenza is several diseases not one, and as a stated cause of death, the annual toll in NZ is much lower than 500. probably closer to 20.

"Established" should mean like mumps or measles, not eliminated - but not having ongoing endemic transmission either.

Unlike flu, that's probably achievable - if enough people get vaccinated. Efficacy of flu vaccine is only about 1/2 as good as the C-19 vaccines - and that's on a good year, and C-19 is many times more deadly.

The university of Otago disagrees with 20

https://www.otago.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue45/inbrief/otago664450.html

Fred99

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#2738663 4-Jul-2021 15:32

They don't actually. They argue that flu as cause of death is vastly under reported. You could say the same about obesity. I looked at that before I posted what I did. Comparing flu and covid has been pointless since the beginning.
Eventually it will probably have to be dealt with like the flu, but it's too early to say when and how.

tdgeek

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#2738707 4-Jul-2021 17:20

I know F all about this topic, but what I do know is from the Freds, the Steves and the Scots, and others. IMHO, we need to MIQ, we need to vaccinate, and only THEN can we re assess the lay of the land. The bubble? If any states are free of CT or almost free, thats worth considering. Ive tooed and froed on the bubble, my only concern is the ease that Aussies flout the borders. But I still propose bubble being based on vaccination. Thats where we will be end if year (AUS and NZ) so I dont believe its a stretch to do that now.

Until Dec 2021 all bets are off, so lets work towards that and the bubble can be based on what the world will be anyway. Free travel if vaccinated.

Rikkitic

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#2738708 4-Jul-2021 17:20

Whee! I am now fully vaccinated. Still haven't heard a thing from my DHB.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

robbyp

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#2738709 4-Jul-2021 17:28

Handle9:
alexx:

I don’t think any country is successfully “living with” the virus yet.

The US has a high vaccination rate and they’ve just entered summer, but they have close to 300 deaths a day, or not quite 1 death per million population per day.

Translate that to an NZ sized population and that’s 4 deaths per day, or close to 1500 in a year. We’ve had 4 covid deaths since May 2020 and that included someone that just arrived in MIQ and was transferred to hospital before they died.

Is anyone seriously advocating for a change in policy where there could be as many as 1500 deaths in a year, so that it might be easier for business travellers and the tourist industry?

Influenza kills ~500 a year and there was never a call to completely isolate the country.

The vast majority (90% or more) of covid deaths and serious harm is in unvaccinated people. Once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated then the health system needs to be able to cope with whatever is left.

Covid isn't going away and sooner or later will become established in NZ.

Are you in NZ?

Covid would have killed tens of thousands of people in NZ and overwhelmed the NZ health system in a very short time. So it would have also killed people waiting for other treatments too, and we didn't have the ICU beds and ventilators that other countries have. Many people in the UK have lost older family members as a result of covid, which they likely wouldn't have lost if they lived in NZ

NZers have been living almost normal lives during covid apart from a couple of months, unlike most of the rest of the world which need masks and social distancing etc to try and minimize the spread. The difference is going to be the vaccine and how effective that is going to be long term.

Handle9

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#2738710 4-Jul-2021 17:28

Rikkitic:
Whee! I am now fully vaccinated. Still haven't heard a thing from my DHB.

Congratulations. I'm very pleased that you are protecting yourself.

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