2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2738712 4-Jul-2021 17:31

Rikkitic:

Whee! I am now fully vaccinated. Still haven't heard a thing from my DHB.

That's great. Maybe you will hear as they get to you, or you won't as they realise you are done.

But the main thing is you are done.

tdgeek

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#2738713 4-Jul-2021 17:38

robbyp:

Are you in NZ?

Covid would have killed tens of thousands of people in NZ and overwhelmed the NZ health system in a very short time. So it would have also killed people waiting for other treatments too, and we didn't have the ICU beds and ventilators that other countries have. Many people in the UK have lost older family members as a result of covid, which they likely wouldn't have lost if they lived in NZ

NZers have been living almost normal lives during covid apart from a couple of months, unlike most of the rest of the world which need masks and social distancing etc to try and minimize the spread. The difference is going to be the vaccine and how effective that is going to be long term.

No, he's not, but thats not relevant. I dont follow what you are getting at

Your first paragraph doesnt relate to NZ, we went into lockdown and the elimination idea. Unlike the UK

The second paragraph is because we went the lockdown and the elimination idea.

robbyp

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#2738717 4-Jul-2021 17:43

tdgeek:

robbyp:

Are you in NZ?

Covid would have killed tens of thousands of people in NZ and overwhelmed the NZ health system in a very short time. So it would have also killed people waiting for other treatments too, and we didn't have the ICU beds and ventilators that other countries have. Many people in the UK have lost older family members as a result of covid, which they likely wouldn't have lost if they lived in NZ

NZers have been living almost normal lives during covid apart from a couple of months, unlike most of the rest of the world which need masks and social distancing etc to try and minimize the spread. The difference is going to be the vaccine and how effective that is going to be long term.

No, he's not, but thats not relevant. I dont follow what you are getting at

Your first paragraph doesnt relate to NZ, we went into lockdown and the elimination idea. Unlike the UK

The second paragraph is because we went the lockdown and the elimination idea.

The first paragraph does relate to NZ, because that was based on the modeling they did in NZ leading into the lockdowns, if we had just let the virus spread in NZ. It was the reason we had to eliminate it. We only have to look at what is now happening in Fiji as to what happens when it spreads and you lose control of it.

Once the virus is in the community, you essentially can't get rid of it without lockdowns and time. So we have to make sure that the vaccine is going to be effective long term and against the variants .The UK is probably going to be a good case study.

tdgeek

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#2738721 4-Jul-2021 17:50

robbyp:

The first paragraph does relate to NZ, because that was based on the modeling they did in NZ leading into the lockdowns, if we had just let the virus spread in NZ. It was the reason we had to eliminate it. We only have to look at what is now happening in Fiji as to what happens when it spreads and you lose control of it.

Once the virus is in the community, you essentially can't get rid of it without lockdowns and time. So we have to make sure that the vaccine is going to be effective long term and against the variants .The UK is probably going to be a good case study.

This is July 2021 not February/March 2020. Don't mean to be mean but we dont need a history lesson. Fiji relates to many many countries that didn't address the problem

The UK is IMHO a sh!tshow. Its been about money and not health. Some countries took the health approach which helped the economic approach.

Rikkitic

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#2738723 4-Jul-2021 18:02

Handle9:
Rikkitic:

Whee! I am now fully vaccinated. Still haven't heard a thing from my DHB.

Congratulations. I'm very pleased that you are protecting yourself.

Don't forget, I am also protecting anyone I might come into contact with.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

PolicyGuy

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#2738724 4-Jul-2021 18:06

Rikkitic:

Whee! I am now fully vaccinated. Still haven't heard a thing from my DHB.

Congratulations!

I am 'Group 3' also fully vaccinated - a fortnight ago so I'm now also fully "immunised" - and it was arranged by calling the Whanganui DHB 0800 number advertised on the front page of their web site.
Yesterday, I received a text from the DHB saying "Call now for an appointment. If you have already been vaccinated, just delete this message"

So it seems like Covid-19 Vaccination a bit of a Post Code Lottery - some DHBs are well on top of it, others are apparently a sh!t shambles.

Perhaps the government's policy to abolish the DHBs and regionalise / centralise health services is based in some objective reality?
Just my $0.02

Fred99

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#2738725 4-Jul-2021 18:06

Handle9:
Rikkitic:

Whee! I am now fully vaccinated. Still haven't heard a thing from my DHB.

Congratulations. I'm very pleased that you are protecting yourself.

Protecting others is what's needed from / the objective of a successful vaccination program.

If we can hopefully get domestic vaccination levels up to a good level, then there's still no way we should open the borders freely to travellers from countries with rampant ongoing transmission.

Inconvenient? Not as bad as being sacrificed because someone thought they needed a holiday.

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Batman

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#2738732 4-Jul-2021 19:02

what happened to blinkybill?

Dratsab

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#2738852 4-Jul-2021 20:34

mattwnz: they are a lot more ruthless, maybe because people are just less trusting of authority etc.

Yep. Bit of a circular argument/situation.

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#2738920 4-Jul-2021 21:16

Batman:

what happened to blinkybill?

This is off topic.

alexx

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#2738981 4-Jul-2021 23:54

Handle9:
alexx:

I don’t think any country is successfully “living with” the virus yet.

The US has a high vaccination rate and they’ve just entered summer, but they have close to 300 deaths a day, or not quite 1 death per million population per day.

Translate that to an NZ sized population and that’s 4 deaths per day, or close to 1500 in a year. We’ve had 4 covid deaths since May 2020 and that included someone that just arrived in MIQ and was transferred to hospital before they died.

Is anyone seriously advocating for a change in policy where there could be as many as 1500 deaths in a year, so that it might be easier for business travellers and the tourist industry?

Influenza kills ~500 a year and there was never a call to completely isolate the country.

The vast majority (90% or more) of covid deaths and serious harm is in unvaccinated people. Once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated then the health system needs to be able to cope with whatever is left.

Covid isn't going away and sooner or later will become established in NZ.

Seasonal Influenza – r0 = 1.3
COVID-19 delta varient - r0 = 5 to 8

Not a good comparison and there is still no country that is close to living with it.

From the COVID-19 Stringency Index, most countries with high Covid-19 vaccination rates have more restrictions than we do.
https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid

Bloomberg seems to agree:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/

Israel still appears to have significant restrictions:
https://www.touristisrael.com/when-will-travel-to-israel-resume/31963/

So those countries are not living with it, even with high vaccination rates.

Some might have been getting close, but the Delta variant has moved the goal posts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-01/israel-reached-herd-immunity-but-delta-came-anyhow

It seems that what you might be proposing, is that at some unspecified vaccination rate, which may or may not be enough to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant, we should open our borders with little or no restrictions.

This might result in the deaths of 500+ each year, who will in many cases be the elderly, the poor, Maori and other minorities. Those that do not get sick or die, might still find they are living with greater restrictions than we do now.

The main benefit will appear to be gained by business travellers and people that can afford regular overseas holidays and don’t want to be inconvenienced on their way home.

Perhaps some political party might like to openly propose this and find our how much support there is for the idea.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

Handle9

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#2738982 5-Jul-2021 02:22

alexx:

Handle9:

Influenza kills ~500 a year and there was never a call to completely isolate the country.

The vast majority (90% or more) of covid deaths and serious harm is in unvaccinated people. Once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated then the health system needs to be able to cope with whatever is left.

Covid isn't going away and sooner or later will become established in NZ.

Seasonal Influenza – r0 = 1.3
COVID-19 delta varient - r0 = 5 to 8

Not a good comparison and there is still no country that is close to living with it.

From the COVID-19 Stringency Index, most countries with high Covid-19 vaccination rates have more restrictions than we do.
https://ourworldindata.org/policy-responses-covid

Bloomberg seems to agree:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/

Israel still appears to have significant restrictions:
https://www.touristisrael.com/when-will-travel-to-israel-resume/31963/

So those countries are not living with it, even with high vaccination rates.

Some might have been getting close, but the Delta variant has moved the goal posts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-01/israel-reached-herd-immunity-but-delta-came-anyhow

It seems that what you might be proposing, is that at some unspecified vaccination rate, which may or may not be enough to reach herd immunity for the Delta variant, we should open our borders with little or no restrictions.

This might result in the deaths of 500+ each year, who will in many cases be the elderly, the poor, Maori and other minorities. Those that do not get sick or die, might still find they are living with greater restrictions than we do now.

The main benefit will appear to be gained by business travellers and people that can afford regular overseas holidays and don’t want to be inconvenienced on their way home.

Perhaps some political party might like to openly propose this and find our how much support there is for the idea.

There's a range of outcomes between zero cases/zero harm and unrestrained transmission/harm.

At some point there will be an outbreak in New Zealand that can't be restrained by lockdowns - either the population won't accept it (which is what is happening in other countries now) or it will be a variant that spreads too fast and wide for lockdowns to be effective. It's really not a matter of if that happens, it's a matter of when. Hopefully mass vaccination is completed by then. That would be a great outcome.

The rest of the world (including Australia) won't try for elimination anytime in the next few years. If NZ wants to completely avoid harm and stay isolated for several more years that's a decision that should be stated and debated. It's not necessary to make a firm decision yet as there is still a lot of water to flow under the bridge but as vaccination rates ramp up and more evidence comes in from the rest of the world the strategy should be stated.

Personally I think some sort of restricted but less onerous travel should be possible once NZ has given the entire population a chance to be vaccinated. Maybe I'm wrong, there's a ways to go yet.

GV27

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#2738985 5-Jul-2021 06:45

Put the vaccine in collagen powders and protein shake pre-mixes and watch all the well-off anti-vaxx mums dose themselves.

freitasm

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#2738988 5-Jul-2021 07:11

Press release overnight:

The largest shipment of Pfizer vaccines yet has arrived two days ahead of schedule, thanks to a joint effort by the Ministry of Health, Pfizer and logistics company DHL, says COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins.

The shipment of 150,000 doses touched down late yesterday afternoon.

The vaccines were taken straight from the tarmac at Auckland Airport to the storage and distribution centre, where quality checks were carried out to ensure ultra-low temperatures were maintained during the flight and that none of the vials were damaged in transit.

“Staff worked late last night to pack and get the vaccine ready for shipment by road and air to District Health Boards and vaccination centres around the country today,” Chris Hipkins said.

“With our first July shipment safely on the ground and 1 million doses arriving this month, over the coming weeks we can start to ramp up the number of vaccines being administered.”

New Zealand had distributed nearly all of its supply of the Pfizer vaccine in storage, giving DHBs enough stock to last until Wednesday.

“The early arrival means no DHB will run out of vaccine. Teams have been working tirelessly to ensure vaccine doses have been getting to the right places to honour all existing appointments, and they’ve done a fantastic job.”

The Ministry of Health has been in constant contact with Pfizer. The company helped secure an earlier release of the vaccines, while DHL planned a route with the quickest transit times to get the vaccines to New Zealand quickly and safely.

“I commend and thank everyone involved – including the wider vaccinator workforce – for their ongoing efforts to ensure people continue to get vaccinated,” Chris Hipkins said.

“Our goal is to keep New Zealanders safe from COVID-19 and vaccination is an important part of that.”

Batman

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#2738990 5-Jul-2021 07:22

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