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Fred99
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  #2749213 24-Jul-2021 15:18
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tdgeek:

 

But hospitalisation is 173 as at today, which will be just the outbreak states. 

 

 

This is a very big elephant in the room. 

 

To quote Wikipedia about our outbreak last year:

 

 

On 5 April, 89 new cases (48 confirmed and 41 probable) were reported, bringing the total to 1,039 (872 confirmed and 167 probable), and 29 more recoveries were reported, bringing the total to 156.[73] The number of people in hospital rose to 15, with three in intensive care, of whom two were in critical condition. (Note that almost all probable cases were later confirmed).

 

 

That's at the stage in the NZ outbreak roughly where Sydney is now after a a couple of weeks of sustained increases in average daily new cases.  Total number of cases is lower than Sydney by almost half, but the number of hospitalisations / ICU / "critical" is massively lower.

 

It seems to be unequivocal evidence that Delta is much more dangerous.  The numbers are just too compelling to argue that there's some other explanation - the very high testing rates and first-world healthcare system in Australia with comparison to past outbreaks there and here provide a very good case study.  If anything they understate the increased risk, as a significant (but still far too low) proportion of the most vulnerable demographic has been vaccinated.  It's useless comparing hospitalisation and fatality rate with ie the UK where almost all of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.  Delta is causing havoc in parts of the US where vaccination rates are lower.

 

There's an article in the NYT today stating that "some" experts are questioning whether there's sufficient evidence to show that Delta is much worse than earlier strains and/or reluctance to accept anecdotal evidence until it's been studied and results published.  Made me roll my eyes when reading it.

 

Too little - too slow seems to have been the default global response.

 

 




mattwnz
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  #2749217 24-Jul-2021 15:30
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I think we will need to get to the point where vaccination will have to be compulsory, for the benefitof the country. There are things people have to legally do and this should be one. Some people won't do it because they can't be bothered, which is where payments should come in once people have been double vaccinated. They are providing incentives overseas. We don't want to be stuck at the 70% mark, as we need to be 99%+ for the country to reopen. I don't think we are doing a very good job with the rollout, and that is partly due to our current legacy systems. But because supplies are limited it probably isn't affecting it too badly

msukiwi
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  #2749222 24-Jul-2021 15:53
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sbiddle
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  #2749234 24-Jul-2021 16:56
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gmball:

 

I agree with comments here, a large chunk of our economy is built around tourism, and it wont be feasible to keep our borders shut once everyone who wants to be vaccinated has had the opportunity to be vaccinated. 

 

 

It's not just about tourism - there are businesses in this country now being crippled by border closures and the inability to actually sell and support products due to the fact it's impossible to get MIQ space. As I've posted numerous times I still believe based on where we are now there there is still a very high probability that MIQ will remain in place well into 2022 (remember it's planned to stay in place until June next year at this point) and with the problems facing that and the lack of willingness to firstly accept there are faults, and secondly to address and fix the faults around the whole MIQ process those problems are only going to get far worse.

 

 


Batman

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  #2749236 24-Jul-2021 16:58
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msukiwi:

 

And this is why NSW has a major problem!

 

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/thousands-protesters-march-against-sydney-lockdown

 

 

 

 

they've been doing that since the first ever lockdown last year


sbiddle
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  #2749238 24-Jul-2021 17:03
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mattwnz: I think we will need to get to the point where vaccination will have to be compulsory, for the benefitof the country. There are things people have to legally do and this should be one. Some people won't do it because they can't be bothered, which is where payments should come in once people have been double vaccinated. They are providing incentives overseas. We don't want to be stuck at the 70% mark, as we need to be 99%+ for the country to reopen. I don't think we are doing a very good job with the rollout, and that is partly due to our current legacy systems. But because supplies are limited it probably isn't affecting it too badly

 

But 99% of the population isn't possible right now, even if it was made mandatory.

 

Right now it's impossible to hit more than around 85% by the end of the year as we can only vaccinate ages 12+, and with so much uncertainty around whether under 12's will ever be vaccinated anywhere in the world going forward due to the risks that could well end up being a limit.

 

Right now that vaccine supplies going forward are no longer a constraint - the constraint now is the number of people to actually deliver vaccines. In recent days it's become clear that now seems to be an issue.

 

 


ezbee
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  #2749241 24-Jul-2021 17:11
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msukiwi:

 

And this is why NSW has a major problem!

 

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/thousands-protesters-march-against-sydney-lockdown

 

 

Planet Murdoch.
Little Ruperts everywhere.

 

Um well... I think someone called them variant factories. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/uk-scientists-caution-that-lifting-of-covid-rules-is-like-building-variant-factories

 

We shall see, early days still. 

 

When you 'even' have the GOP Governor of Alabama, starting to call out those reluctant to get vaccinated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/23/alabama-kay-ivey-unvaccinated-covid/
""
Alabama’s GOP governor says ‘it’s time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks’ for covid-19 spike
""

 

Anyway by the time we get to the end of our vaccination program we will have months of data in from rest of world to chart our course.


 
 
 

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sbiddle
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  #2749242 24-Jul-2021 17:13
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Fred99:

 

It seems to be unequivocal evidence that Delta is much more dangerous.  The numbers are just too compelling to argue that there's some other explanation - the very high testing rates and first-world healthcare system in Australia with comparison to past outbreaks there and here provide a very good case study.  If anything they understate the increased risk, as a significant (but still far too low) proportion of the most vulnerable demographic has been vaccinated.  It's useless comparing hospitalisation and fatality rate with ie the UK where almost all of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated.  Delta is causing havoc in parts of the US where vaccination rates are lower.

 

There's an article in the NYT today stating that "some" experts are questioning whether there's sufficient evidence to show that Delta is much worse than earlier strains and/or reluctance to accept anecdotal evidence until it's been studied and results published.  Made me roll my eyes when reading it.

 

Too little - too slow seems to have been the default global response.

 

 

Australia is all the proof we need about how dangerous delta is - and when Australia warned the world in June even the WHO basically told them they were wrong. There simply aren't other countries like Australia (Singapore is about the closest) with case numbers that are low enough to sequence every case and along with contract tracing have solid data for a high percentage of cases knowing how and when the transmission occured.

 

We can criticise NSW all we want, but the simple fact is the current outbreak grew slowly at the start and case numbers were at levels that had been dealt with successfully several times before. Even with Alpha this outbreak would have potentially been controlled.

 

Delta shows up our alert levels as well, because it's pretty clear now that had the Sydney visitor to Wellington infected anybody here that the level 2 restrictions we put in place would have done absolutely nothing to prevent any further CT.

 

 


Batman

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  #2749246 24-Jul-2021 17:42
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ezbee:

 

msukiwi:

 

And this is why NSW has a major problem!

 

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/thousands-protesters-march-against-sydney-lockdown

 

 

Planet Murdoch.
Little Ruperts everywhere.

 

Um well... I think someone called them variant factories. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/uk-scientists-caution-that-lifting-of-covid-rules-is-like-building-variant-factories

 

We shall see, early days still. 

 

When you 'even' have the GOP Governor of Alabama, starting to call out those reluctant to get vaccinated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/23/alabama-kay-ivey-unvaccinated-covid/
""
Alabama’s GOP governor says ‘it’s time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks’ for covid-19 spike
""

 

Anyway by the time we get to the end of our vaccination program we will have months of data in from rest of world to chart our course.

 

 

skynews AU = Foxnews US


tdgeek
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  #2749248 24-Jul-2021 17:53
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mattwnz: I think we will need to get to the point where vaccination will have to be compulsory, for the benefitof the country. There are things people have to legally do and this should be one. Some people won't do it because they can't be bothered, which is where payments should come in once people have been double vaccinated. They are providing incentives overseas. We don't want to be stuck at the 70% mark, as we need to be 99%+ for the country to reopen. I don't think we are doing a very good job with the rollout, and that is partly due to our current legacy systems. But because supplies are limited it probably isn't affecting it too badly

 

No, no, no. We can't pay people to vaccinate. We don't pay people to get a flu jab, nor to not run red lights.

 

If we all got vaccinated and 23% didn't (based on a past poll) what more can we do if we have educated and TV ads everywhere? Those that chose to not vaccinate, despite education, will suffer. They had their chance, they got educated. And of those us that got vaccinated will be generally fine, those that didn't, will either be fine, get sick, or die, then they will be fine.

 

Remember we want herd immunity. We will get that, but I dont want my taxpayer dollars paying idiots. They will get Covid, mostly recover, then be part of herd immunity. Done. If you want to pay them, pay me each time I stop at a red light.


tdgeek
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  #2749249 24-Jul-2021 17:54
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mattwnz:  I don't think we are doing a very good job with the rollout, and that is partly due to our current legacy systems. But because supplies are limited it probably isn't affecting it too badly

 

Its due to supply, we used up all we could as we got it. Now we are getting bigger supplies, lets see how that goes


tdgeek
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  #2749251 24-Jul-2021 17:59
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msukiwi:

 

And this is why NSW has a major problem!

 

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/thousands-protesters-march-against-sydney-lockdown

 

 

 

 

That also happened when this lockdown was announced. Many in NZ may be miffed, but we won't do this. I saw a headline today that most SME's (small and medium businesses i.e. all businesses less corporates) are in favour of lockdowns. One proper lockdown avoids weeks and months of ongoing lockdowns, cue NZ and AUS

 

As it was from day one here, sort health, you sort economics. If you decide to sort economics, you will pay.


tdgeek
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  #2749253 24-Jul-2021 18:03
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sbiddle:

 

Right now that vaccine supplies going forward are no longer a constraint - the constraint now is the number of people to actually deliver vaccines. In recent days it's become clear that now seems to be an issue.

 

 

 

 

Agree. That should have been planned far better. I expect it will be a relatively quick fix. My employer (a large corporate) has applied for vaccination status. That, GP's, chemists, Vaccinator events as South Auckland has this weekend, there are many options.


tdgeek
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  #2749254 24-Jul-2021 18:05
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ezbee:

 

 

 

Anyway by the time we get to the end of our vaccination program we will have months of data in from rest of world to chart our course.

 

 

Exactly, as I posted earlier. We have no idea how all this will pan out. Maintain our "fortress" see what's going on then. Boris experiments, we go by data, makes perfect and common sense.

 

If we ended up late to a party, who cares? We took the lesser risk


tdgeek
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  #2749257 24-Jul-2021 18:09
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Batman:

 

skynews AU = Foxnews US

 

 

It is!


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