2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2749506 25-Jul-2021 17:33

Oblivian: NSW 141, 86 known. And record test numbers

It's not 163, or 136, but it ain't flash

2 more fatality

Just read one of those 2 a woman in 30s with no preexisting conditions

Fred99

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#2749649 26-Jul-2021 08:28

Batman:

Just read one of those 2 a woman in 30s with no preexisting conditions

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/friends-in-shock-heartbreak-tributes-over-nsw-covid-19-victim/LQRAOJX4VMNP52YHO3BTT7W7WI/

NSW Health's Jeremy McAnulty said a teenager was one of 43 people currently in intensive care in NSW.

He said of 43 people in intensive care, one was a teenager, seven were in their 20s, three were in their 30s, 14 were in their 50s, 12 were in their 60s and six were in their 70s.

"So this is affecting people of all ages with very serious disease," Dr McAnulty said.

Professor Doherty warned that patients would "never be the same" after leaving intensive care.

tdgeek

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#2749656 26-Jul-2021 08:49

Very ominous indeed

GV27

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#2749717 26-Jul-2021 09:00

So it looks like I'm totally wrong about the waste-water thing.

Apparently they are still waiting for results today from sometime before the weekend?

If this is out there than that's a pretty decent head start.

wellygary

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#2749720 26-Jul-2021 09:07

GV27:

So it looks like I'm totally wrong about the waste-water thing.

Apparently they are still waiting for results today from sometime before the weekend?

If this is out there than that's a pretty decent head start.

This initial positive tests were on samples from the 20th (Tuesday) and 22nd (Thursday)... So its got at least 6 days head start already...

If they confirmed a case in the community, and it was confirmed as delta, I wouldn't be surprised to see a fairly big regional level 3 imposed on all of Taranaki, with a level 2 nation wide.... Both will come with stronger mask wearing requirements.. potentially inside and out..

Fred99

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#2749726 26-Jul-2021 09:20

GV27:

So it looks like I'm totally wrong about the waste-water thing.

Apparently they are still waiting for results today from sometime before the weekend?

If this is out there than that's a pretty decent head start.

No - not totally. It's a very useful tool if - as is probably the case in NZ now - people have grown complacent about getting tested if they have symptoms.

Put it this way, the time delay between picking up C-19 in wastewater and finding a CT case might not prevent initial spread, but apparently there was a big increase in people fronting up for testing in Taranaki yesterday. If that does uncover a case (hopefully not) then imagine how much worse it could be if they never fronted up for testing at all.

nzkiwiman

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#2749729 26-Jul-2021 09:28

"it is winter, a sniffle is normal in winter"

"it is winter, a cough is normal in winter"

etc etc

EDIT: Grammar Fail

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DS248

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#2749730 26-Jul-2021 09:29

Rumour or not, hopefully we are trying to do a lot better than this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300365802/new-zealand-is-not-the-worlds-postcovid-future

"But, quietly around the edges, we hear signals that nobody should really be able to expect to travel for another year."

GV27

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#2749783 26-Jul-2021 09:45

Fred99:

No - not totally. It's a very useful tool if - as is probably the case in NZ now - people have grown complacent about getting tested if they have symptoms.

Put it this way, the time delay between picking up C-19 in wastewater and finding a CT case might not prevent initial spread, but apparently there was a big increase in people fronting up for testing in Taranaki yesterday. If that does uncover a case (hopefully not) then imagine how much worse it could be if they never fronted up for testing at all.

While this is something, it's of much lesser comfort if this is indeed the Delta variant.

Although nothing I have seen suggests panic stations so I'm not sure whether that should be concerning or comforting.

wellygary

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#2749787 26-Jul-2021 09:48

DS248:

Rumour or not, hopefully we are trying to do a lot better than this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300365802/new-zealand-is-not-the-worlds-postcovid-future

"But, quietly around the edges, we hear signals that nobody should really be able to expect to travel for another year."

The NZ Imitative ( ex business round table) are stirring again....

While it will not be politically credible to hold the borders closed if we have a significantly fully vaccinated population... when that happens is still unclear, but certainly at the moment the levels of global severe infection/hospitalisation/death amongst the fully vaccinated is still low... if that remains the borders simply can't remain as closed as they are now...,

Fred99

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#2749807 26-Jul-2021 10:01

GV27:

While this is something, it's of much lesser comfort if this is indeed the Delta variant.

Although nothing I have seen suggests panic stations so I'm not sure whether that should be concerning or comforting.

Well if it's any comfort (probably not), the chance of at least one person in a small cluster getting so sick that they seek medical care is high. Milder variants were less infectious - but also more likely to result in most younger people having mild symptoms, so a cluster could get larger without being detected, especially when testing rates are low (which they are in NZ ATM).

If they keep testing the wastewater, they should also be able to see from PCR CT counts if the concentration of viral particles has increased dramatically.

tdgeek

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#2749810 26-Jul-2021 10:07

Fred99:

Well if it's any comfort (probably not), the chance of at least one person in a small cluster getting so sick that they seek medical care is high. Milder variants were less infectious - but also more likely to result in most younger people having mild symptoms, so a cluster could get larger without being detected, especially when testing rates are low (which they are in NZ ATM).

If they keep testing the wastewater, they should also be able to see from PCR CT counts if the concentration of viral particles has increased dramatically.

Can they tell what strain?

Fred99

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#2749813 26-Jul-2021 10:14

wellygary:

DS248:

Rumour or not, hopefully we are trying to do a lot better than this

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300365802/new-zealand-is-not-the-worlds-postcovid-future

"But, quietly around the edges, we hear signals that nobody should really be able to expect to travel for another year."

The NZ Imitative ( ex business round table) are stirring again....

While it will not be politically credible to hold the borders closed if we have a significantly fully vaccinated population... when that happens is still unclear, but certainly at the moment the levels of global severe infection/hospitalisation/death amongst the fully vaccinated is still low... if that remains the borders simply can't remain as closed as they are now...,

I think we're supposed to have "An Exit Plan" prepared/released in August. It's probably too early to be conclusive about anything.

Reading Australian news, they're desperately trying to model the impact of Delta, with higher R0 with more serious disease and an apparent change in the spread over different age deciles, may as well throw estimates from the past out the window - start again from square one - it's like a different disease.

As their population, lifestyle etc is close to ours and with a similar vaccination rate, they're the best example we should use - not saying we should follow their "exit plan", they make mistakes too. We still have time on our side - better not waste that.

Edit: link to article about this on ABC News

Fred99

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#2749815 26-Jul-2021 10:20

tdgeek:

Fred99:

Well if it's any comfort (probably not), the chance of at least one person in a small cluster getting so sick that they seek medical care is high. Milder variants were less infectious - but also more likely to result in most younger people having mild symptoms, so a cluster could get larger without being detected, especially when testing rates are low (which they are in NZ ATM).

If they keep testing the wastewater, they should also be able to see from PCR CT counts if the concentration of viral particles has increased dramatically.

Can they tell what strain?

Not yet. The RNA is too fragmented and too low concentration, each PCR cycle increases amplifies errors and they need so many cycles to detect it in the first place.

In the future, maybe:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/scientists-developing-method-to-detect-covid-19-variants-in-wastewater-testing

wellygary

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#2749817 26-Jul-2021 10:28

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Can they tell what strain?

Not yet. The RNA is too fragmented and too low concentration, each PCR cycle increases amplifies errors and they need so many cycles to detect it in the first place.

In the future, maybe:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/scientists-developing-method-to-detect-covid-19-variants-in-wastewater-testing

Meh, whiffly waffly science :)

In NZ we have politicians and the Media :(

"Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer says the Covid-19 found in Taranaki’s wastewater last week is the Delta variant. In a Facebook post on Monday morning Ngarewa-Packer encouraged symptomatic people to get tested, saying it was “clearly the Delta strain”.

Ngarewa-Packer said she had been briefed by the Taranaki Health Board (TDHB) “to deal with the Covid kaupapa we have going on in the wider New Plymouth area”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/125861286/covid19-in-new-plymouths-wastewater-is-delta-variant--mori-party-coleader-says

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