2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2774618 8-Sep-2021 15:56

Data is given to get the non cumulative at the bottom of the page. So I've totaled them (and you can see it lags)

But it's weekly so need to wait for end of week stats. But here it was as of 2 weeks:

TeaLeaf

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#2774638 8-Sep-2021 16:23

Handle9: No. It's a cumulative graph so Auckland looks to be more like ~1.5 million.

Yep. Thats what I meant, or close enough to as you say ~1.5mill.

So cumulative in the Graph is not meaning total doses given for that location, in this case Auck being the aqua line that has peaked above 3.5M, but cumulative of all groups ie NZ?

Clearly the Cumulative vaccinations by group (and as Oblivion stated the standup) spells the numbers very clearly from a national perspective which indicates to me my brain fog from being ill has gotten the better of me in this instance, my apologies and thanks for bearing with me.

On a health note, I physically (let alone mental) feel better just by cutting out all sources of distracting minsinformation feeds and comments, ie YT channels.

ajobbins

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#2774735 8-Sep-2021 17:56

Batman:

there is a lot of pressure to at least go to level 3. (it took me 1 min to read facebook posts today before i moved on - a lot 'communist' comments/posts - both from NI and SI people.)

I think that would be dangerous. Your lockdown is clearly working - but Delta is much harder to control and it's going to take a bit longer.

If you open up any earlier, even L3, it only takes 1 or 2 cases moving about more in the community to reseed another outbreak. Your L4 is HARD, but it's almost certainly better to be sure you've stamped it out and can move down the levels quickly like the rest of the country rather than chase flare ups and stay in L3 for a long time as well, or potentially have to move back up to L4 if cases started to grow again.

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tdgeek

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#2774737 8-Sep-2021 18:02

TeaLeaf: I think possibly just another lesson learnt, yes things seem to be far too reactive still, but hopefully the more we adapt the faster we become proactive.

Im not sure how pro active you can be in this pandemic. No one is a mind reader. Our strategy of elimination means we can buy time, see what happens, see what the latest data and vaccines show. Im running out of countries you can emmigrate to to be better off

tdgeek

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#2774741 8-Sep-2021 18:04

Batman:

there is a lot of pressure to at least go to level 3.

In Auckland??? How can that be. The SI has had no cases for 312 days, but still L4 for 2 weeks and L3 for one week, how can AKL go to L3?

tdgeek

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#2774742 8-Sep-2021 18:06

ajobbins:

I think that would be dangerous. Your lockdown is clearly working - but Delta is much harder to control and it's going to take a bit longer.

If you open up any earlier, even L3, it only takes 1 or 2 cases moving about more in the community to reseed another outbreak. Your L4 is HARD, but it's almost certainly better to be sure you've stamped it out and can move down the levels quickly like the rest of the country rather than chase flare ups and stay in L3 for a long time as well, or potentially have to move back up to L4 if cases started to grow again.

100%

As my brother in law would say, measure twice, cut once.

tdgeek

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#2774743 8-Sep-2021 18:10

Fred99:

Well we shouldn't yet.

May have a better idea in about 10 days time:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-brief-fda-hold-advisory-committee-meeting-discuss-pfizer-biontechs-application-covid-19-booster

Fair enough. I do see a need for early jabbers to get an early boost, but if its 10 days away, or 10 weeks away, its well worth the wait.

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tdgeek

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#2774744 8-Sep-2021 18:13

GV27:

Excited for my first jab (mainly for the sake of our baby) and my partner who is already full vaxxed. I'm sure it will go perfectly fine, I can't think of a single thing that has ever gone wrong on September 11.

It will be painless, no side effects most likely. 11/09 is my parents wedding anniversary, so all sorted! :-)

2nd Jab I was tired, went to bed at 8pm. Next day tender arm, sore to move a mouse, next day back to normal.

ezbee

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#2774752 8-Sep-2021 18:28

Auckland going down levels may be on the back burner until Middlemore is closed off as not being a new spreading event.
Reset the 14 day clock ?

Rest of country going down to level 1 could be very risky with numbers crossing the boarder given the numbers that cross the boarder.

I'm just surprised that there is no plan at Hospitals for Triage in an active outbreak, I expect there are lessons form UK etc.
Why not test everyone that comes into emergency as they arrive to be sure , not very many hours later ?
Give them a quality mask with strict instructions to wear it properly.
Have a separate area for them unless there is an emergency procedure, mostly people are waiting for 6-7-8 hours.
No space, ask for Military for their emergency mobile hospital to put in a carpark ? Get some heated tents elsewhere ?
I'm sure there are possibilities.
I'm surprised its a surprise to those running Hospitals.

tdgeek

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#2774757 8-Sep-2021 18:32

ezbee:

Auckland going down levels may be on the back burner until Middlemore is closed off as not being a new spreading event.
Reset the 14 day clock ?

Rest of country going down to level 1 could be very risky with numbers crossing the boarder given the numbers that cross the boarder.

I'm just surprised that there is no plan at Hospitals for Triage in an active outbreak, I expect there are lessons form UK etc.
Why not test everyone that comes into emergency as they arrive to be sure , not very many hours later ?
Give them a quality mask with strict instructions to wear it properly.
Have a separate area for them unless there is an emergency procedure, mostly people are waiting for 6-7-8 hours.
No space, ask for Military for their emergency mobile hospital to put in a carpark ? Get some heated tents elsewhere ?
I'm sure there are possibilities.
I'm surprised its a surprise to those running Hospitals.

As I posted "In Auckland??? How can that be. The SI has had no cases for 312 days, but still L4 for 2 weeks and L3 for one week, how can AKL go to L3?"

Based on the rest of NZ, it will be a long while even if cases went to zero tomorrow and stayed there

TeaLeaf

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#2774768 8-Sep-2021 18:49

tdgeek:

Im not sure how pro active you can be in this pandemic. No one is a mind reader.

Closing borders when said outbreaks occur elsewhere, is not really mind reading, its simply reacting faster. Lessons learnt better actually be learnt or it will be a merry go round when we open our int borders (next year is being talked of), not just in Auck but all of NZ.

The OP question was around why the border needed retooling given we have been aware of Delta for a fair time now.

Batman

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#2774772 8-Sep-2021 18:57

ajobbins:

Batman:

there is a lot of pressure to at least go to level 3. (it took me 1 min to read facebook posts today before i moved on - a lot 'communist' comments/posts - both from NI and SI people.)

I think that would be dangerous. Your lockdown is clearly working - but Delta is much harder to control and it's going to take a bit longer.

If you open up any earlier, even L3, it only takes 1 or 2 cases moving about more in the community to reseed another outbreak. Your L4 is HARD, but it's almost certainly better to be sure you've stamped it out and can move down the levels quickly like the rest of the country rather than chase flare ups and stay in L3 for a long time as well, or potentially have to move back up to L4 if cases started to grow again.

i guess we will know in 5 days whether the govt reads social media

tdgeek

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#2774774 8-Sep-2021 19:00

TeaLeaf:
tdgeek:

Im not sure how pro active you can be in this pandemic. No one is a mind reader.

Closing borders when said outbreaks occur elsewhere, is not really mind reading, its simply reacting faster. Lessons learnt better actually be learnt or it will be a merry go round when we open our int borders (next year is being talked of). The OP question was around why the border needed retooling given we have been aware of Delta for a fair time now.

Re tooling? Maybe some spin there, but its about us and neighbours, and other "doing well" countries. The gold standard in this neck of the woods is AUS, and from others here, many other countries, all of whom have failed. Our stance hasn't changed, others have, i.e. AUS doing a Boris, that does change things markedly.

All the complaints here about low vaccination and so on are unfounded. We bought time.

TeaLeaf

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#2774787 8-Sep-2021 19:31

tdgeek:

All the complaints here about low vaccination and so on are unfounded. We bought time.

Yes, that is really all our elimination strategy is about (why I was asking about further boosters from biontech including variants)

But the border lesson is, if a country who we are open to, develops or contracts a variant we do not have and do not have vaccinations too, we should close our borders immediately. As the OP pointed out, its not like our scientists were not aware of delta. So part of strategy should actually not just be masks and such, but speed to action should be in there a well.

Who makes the decision on closing the border currently? Id have thought there is a separate entity whose sole purpose is to identify threats afield and advise the PM of said threats. The PM has the ability to close borders soley?

DS248

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#2774968 8-Sep-2021 21:03

@TeaLeaf:
DS248:

Quick update on Israeli C19 data since like NZ they are a 'Pfizer only' country. So of interest here.

Can I ask where you got the graph? Its awesome source (literal). Sometimes I think people who are visual learners, will not be swayed by data, text, audio etc. This kind of thing is what they/me appreciate, cuts to the chase.

...

I download the raw data from the health.gov.il website, then process and plot it myself.

The plots in my #2774010 post combine data from three (oops, make that four) separate Israeli datasets, plus of course from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Stringency Index database.

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