2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2778146 14-Sep-2021 11:10

wellygary:

He said the virus had gone underground and "we are chasing our tails now".
The Delta virus could hide in domestic animals and at some point, New Zealand needed to learn to deal with it."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-auckland-officially-in-longest-ever-lockdown-but-there-is-hope/NHDL2T22TSE3DGBOPJANY5GZXY/

Pretty sure there have not been any reported cases of people catching COVID from domestic animals.....

and if its true then we had better start a mass culling programme.... ,,,,here fluffy fluffy

maybe mis-quoting? quite popular by journalists. not saying it is, but it's possible.

tdgeek

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#2778148 14-Sep-2021 11:11

Live this morning, and Dr A cautiously optimistic AKL will go to L3 next week

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/09/latest-on-covid-19-community-outbreak-tuesday-september-14.html

Buster

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#2778160 14-Sep-2021 11:48

So vaccination needs to happen as fast as possible for as many as possible, but this is still not the fastest way out of L4 lockdown for Aucklanders. I expect that is still a 6 - 8 week timeframe minimum.

Auckland needs to understand the fastest way (and it's a better outcome too) is to lockdown honestly according to the rules/guidelines and they can be safely out of lockdown in less than 6 weeks. Better outcome for them. Better outcome for NZ.

As long as Auckland is at a different level than the rest of NZ the North/South borders stay up. Yes.

ezbee

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#2778162 14-Sep-2021 11:56

Some new data analysis from UK on vaccination and death.

Fully vaccinated people account for 1.2% of England’s Covid-19 deaths
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/fully-vaccinated-people-account-for-12-of-englands-covid-19-deaths

""
Of the total Covid-related deaths, 458 (about 0.9%) were of people who died at least 21 days after their second vaccine dose. Just 256 deaths (0.5%) were of people who were fully vaccinated and had their first positive PCR test at least 14 days after their second dose.
""

The original data.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021

""
The median age of breakthrough deaths was 84, compared to 82 for other COVID-19 deaths and for non-COVID-19 deaths.
""
13.1% of breakthrough deaths occurred in people who were identified as likely to be immunocompromised from hospital episodes or causes of death, compared to 5.4% for other COVID-19 deaths.
""

If we can get to a Denmark or higher vaccination rate it gives us more choices, even if we don't have their flash healthcare system.
Given poverty and whole families living in garages in significant part of Auckland not doing this could be horrific.

Batman

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#2778163 14-Sep-2021 11:57

Buster:

So vaccination needs to happen as fast as possible for as many as possible, but this is still not the fastest way out of L4 lockdown for Aucklanders. I expect that is still a 6 - 8 week timeframe minimum.

Auckland needs to understand the fastest way (and it's a better outcome too) is to lockdown honestly according to the rules/guidelines and they can be safely out of lockdown in less than 6 weeks. Better outcome for them. Better outcome for NZ.

As long as Auckland is at a different level than the rest of NZ the North/South borders stay up. Yes.

"Auckland" in general knows and are complying, but as mentioned by others you have essential workers moving around and gang members moonlighting in clandestine activities.

Buster

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#2778165 14-Sep-2021 12:07

Batman:

"Auckland" in general knows and are complying, but as mentioned by others you have essential workers moving around and gang members moonlighting in clandestine activities.

Correct. The very vast majority of folks in Auckland will be doing exactly the right thing.

I was wondering if the Gangs had moved operations/deals to visiting hours at Middlemore Hospital. 😲

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#2778167 14-Sep-2021 12:16

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-no-intention-of-using-lockdowns-forever-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern/Q5M5TGKLH5NNWJGLUQWT66BSC4/

"mystery cases do not have to be linked before Auckland comes out of level 4."

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kobiak

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#2778169 14-Sep-2021 12:18

Vaccination is the key (that's what they keep saying), but there are lots of people who does not want to jump the bandwagon... or it's long wait for booked appointment.

bring on vaccine passports for the duration of however long it would take to vaccinate 90% of population.

- make all indoor public places to be accessed by presenting vaccine passport/or exemption document.
- more mobile vaccination stations around shopping malls, CBD, ect.

helping others at evgenyk.nz

ajobbins

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#2778170 14-Sep-2021 12:19

tdgeek:

heavenlywild:

No, I have to disagree with you. How do you have plans to open the borders without Delta and Mu etc coming in?

Yes, elimination for now but I don't think she said it's long term.

Update: If elimination is long term then we can become a hermit nation.

Agree. They say there is an opening up plan, and the emphasis on vaccines. Get vaccinated and check the lay of the land then

Hermit nation isn't quite correct. We can do everything internationally, except travel in and out, so trade is covered, so not hermit

If you have half an hour, Bernard Hickey breaks it down quite well here:

Hipkins tells Parliament Skegg plan for 'reconnecting to the world' on hold after delta outbreak; Govt renews commitment to elimination at all costs; Hendy sees weeks more lockdown before elimination https://thekaka.substack.com/p/dawn-chorus-time-to-stop-kidding

The PM is being a little more cautious in her messaging than Hipkins or Bloomfield, but her messaging is also mixed. The messaging from the PM has two main elements

1) Maintain elimination long term - with no tolerance for cases or deaths. Note the word tolerance is important here as it relates to the elimination strategy . It means there most likely wont be zero, but that all actions will be taken to quash outbreaks as they happen.

2) Vaccinate as much of the population as possible to avoid lockdowns in the future, and use a risk based approach to ease border restrictions.

That sounds like a good strategy, in theory, but the two don't reconcile. If you want to maintain #1, Delta gives you no ability to ease border restrictions, even at absolute maximum vaccination rates (The concept of herd immunity essentially doesn't apply to Delta).

I'm seeing a pattern of confusion caused by the governments messaging here. I see it all over social media, and in this thread. For example,

People see the stats around linked/unlinked cases - something the government is quick to talk about and take that to mean the outbreak is under control. Right now it is not. Because they aren't talking about cases infectious in the community, the public aren't understanding where the risks actually are.
The 'in-principle' decision for Auckland to go to L3 in a week. As pointed out in this thread, lots of the public clearly now expect that is what will happen, but frankly, doing so would be very dangerous - you can have no confidence you will have no undetected community spread in a week. Only a run of days (a week minimum) of no cases infectious in the community and no mystery cases found would start to give you that confidence. Anything else would be a gamble.
And to the main bit above - the talk about buying time to vaccinate everyone so you can open up. This has set an expectation with the public that you can return to your 'normal'/L1 setting once you reach peak vaccination and border restrictions can ease while maintaining covid elimination. Everything happening around the world now shows that would be impossible. The minute you ease border restrictions, Delta is in and nothing short of more lockdowns will have a chance at shutting down spread. You simply can't have a (somewhat) open border, no lockdowns and maintain elimination, but that is what the PM has been selling.

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snnet

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#2778172 14-Sep-2021 12:21

Batman:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-no-intention-of-using-lockdowns-forever-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern/Q5M5TGKLH5NNWJGLUQWT66BSC4/

"mystery cases do not have to be linked before Auckland comes out of level 4."

Existing mystery cases may not have to be linked, but they will want new ones to stop popping up I'm sure. Yesterday's announcement about Level 3 coming next week being the intention was kind of redundant and a lot of people are assuming it's 100% going to happen no matter what

tdgeek

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#2778174 14-Sep-2021 12:28

ajobbins:

tdgeek:

Agree. They say there is an opening up plan, and the emphasis on vaccines. Get vaccinated and check the lay of the land then

Hermit nation isn't quite correct. We can do everything internationally, except travel in and out, so trade is covered, so not hermit

If you have half an hour, Bernard Hickey breaks it down quite well here:

Hipkins tells Parliament Skegg plan for 'reconnecting to the world' on hold after delta outbreak; Govt renews commitment to elimination at all costs; Hendy sees weeks more lockdown before elimination https://thekaka.substack.com/p/dawn-chorus-time-to-stop-kidding

The PM is being a little more cautious in her messaging than Hipkins or Bloomfield, but her messaging is also mixed. The messaging from the PM has two main elements

1) Maintain elimination long term - with no tolerance for cases or deaths. Note the word tolerance is important here as it relates to the elimination strategy . It means there most likely wont be zero, but that all actions will be taken to quash outbreaks as they happen.

2) Vaccinate as much of the population as possible to avoid lockdowns in the future, and use a risk based approach to ease border restrictions.

That sounds like a good strategy, in theory, but the two don't reconcile. If you want to maintain #1, Delta gives you no ability to ease border restrictions, even at absolute maximum vaccination rates (The concept of herd immunity essentially doesn't apply to Delta).

I'm seeing a pattern of confusion caused by the governments messaging here. I see it all over social media, and in this thread. For example,

People see the stats around linked/unlinked cases - something the government is quick to talk about and take that to mean the outbreak is under control. Right now it is not. Because they aren't talking about cases infectious in the community, the public aren't understanding where the risks actually are.
The 'in-principle' decision for Auckland to go to L3 in a week. As pointed out in this thread, lots of the public clearly now expect that is what will happen, but frankly, doing so would be very dangerous - you can have no confidence you will have no undetected community spread in a week. Only a run of days (a week minimum) of no cases infectious in the community and no mystery cases found would start to give you that confidence. Anything else would be a gamble.
And to the main bit above - the talk about buying time to vaccinate everyone so you can open up. This has set an expectation with the public that you can return to your 'normal'/L1 setting once you reach peak vaccination and border restrictions can ease while maintaining covid elimination. Everything happening around the world now shows that would be impossible. The minute you ease border restrictions, Delta is in and nothing short of more lockdowns will have a chance at shutting down spread. You simply can't have a (somewhat) open border, no lockdowns and maintain elimination, but that is what the PM has been selling.

I agree and hear what you say, but I dont think long term elimination and no deaths is a 5 year goal. For a while now, opening up has been on the table, vaccinations are key to that. My feel for elimination and tolerate no deaths, is the goal between the past and in the future when we have a good vaccine take up. When that draws near, the opening up becomes the current topic.I can see a booster period kicking in and more will be known on that later 2021 early 2022

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#2778175 14-Sep-2021 12:30

What a blatant abuse of the suppression law for the couple who broke the rules to fly to Wanaka.

The law is an arse in circumstances like this imo.

Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding : Ice cream man , Ice cream man

ajobbins

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#2778195 14-Sep-2021 12:50

tdgeek:

I agree and hear what you say, but I dont think long term elimination and no deaths is a 5 year goal. For a while now, opening up has been on the table, vaccinations are key to that. My feel for elimination and tolerate no deaths, is the goal between the past and in the future when we have a good vaccine take up. When that draws near, the opening up becomes the current topic.I can see a booster period kicking in and more will be known on that later 2021 early 2022

My prediction is that the strategy will change as the reality of it becomes evident, but right now it is the offical strategy.

What we do know is that vaccines are REALLY effective at preventing illness and death - but not perfect. If you could vaccinate every single person, you would probably have death rates at or lower than seasonal flu. What level of death is acceptable to society? (I'm not looking for an answer to this question from anyone here by the way - the reality is that we, and the government, make that decision all that time, we just don't have to confront it in quite the same way as when talking about when is the right point to change the biggest public health strategy of our lifetime)

But with no hope of herd immunity, how do you protect those who can't or wont vaccinate? Do we let people who choose (for whatever reason) not to get a shot die because that was their choice?

How do you protect young people, who are far less impacted by COVID but do still sometimes get sick and die, and very much do spread it? Vaccines may be approved and rolled out to all ages, but as of now, they are not approved for under 12s anywhere in the world.

And lastly, how do you protect those who would happily be vaccinated but cannot for some health reason?

Right or wrong, I think society would have some level of 'personal choice' tolerance for covid deaths, but someones own personal choice could cause another person's death. But how willing are people to get freedoms back and risk the death of kids or the vulnerable. This answer will vary widely across the population, but the government is clearly taking the most risk averse approach and it seems to currently be widely supported by most of the population.

The public don't want any covid spread - now or ever. They have been told they can have both no covid and a (largely) normal life. That might have been possible with high vaccination rates and moderate public health measures with earlier variants - but Delta has made that impossible. There is a big gap between what the public has been sold and what the government can deliver here that will, one way or another, be reconciled.

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tdgeek

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#2778200 14-Sep-2021 13:05

ajobbins:

My prediction is that the strategy will change as the reality of it becomes evident, but right now it is the offical strategy.

What we do know is that vaccines are REALLY effective at preventing illness and death - but not perfect. If you could vaccinate every single person, you would probably have death rates at or lower than seasonal flu. What level of death is acceptable to society? (I'm not looking for an answer to this question from anyone here by the way - the reality is that we, and the government, make that decision all that time, we just don't have to confront it in quite the same way as when talking about when is the right point to change the biggest public health strategy of our lifetime)

But with no hope of herd immunity, how do you protect those who can't or wont vaccinate? Do we let people who choose (for whatever reason) not to get a shot die because that was their choice?

How do you protect young people, who are far less impacted by COVID but do still sometimes get sick and die, and very much do spread it? Vaccines may be approved and rolled out to all ages, but as of now, they are not approved for under 12s anywhere in the world.

And lastly, how do you protect those who would happily be vaccinated but cannot for some health reason?

Right or wrong, I think society would have some level of 'personal choice' tolerance for covid deaths, but someones own personal choice could cause another person's death. But how willing are people to get freedoms back and risk the death of kids or the vulnerable. This answer will vary widely across the population, but the government is clearly taking the most risk averse approach and it seems to currently be widely supported by most of the population.

The public don't want any covid spread - now or ever. They have been told they can have both no covid and a (largely) normal life. That might have been possible with high vaccination rates and moderate public health measures with earlier variants - but Delta has made that impossible. There is a big gap between what the public has been sold and what the government can deliver here that will, one way or another, be reconciled.

This is bound to be questioned at 10m today re the reconcilation

ajobbins

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#2778201 14-Sep-2021 13:10

Bloomfield mentioned case numbers and that all are 'linked', but did not mention that 8 of the 15 were infectious in the community - the most important number to watch at this stage of the outbreak

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