2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2788948 4-Oct-2021 11:16

Interesting situation at Auckland hospital, covid-positive baby in neonatal intensive care, contracted from the father, the mother at this stage tests negative and is in hospital with the baby - both moved to separate ward.

That's a terrible situation for them to be in (and must be creating some serious issues for hospital staff trying to manage it)

Oblivian

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#2789008 4-Oct-2021 11:27

So now we have 2 newborns (who would likely get it from kissing parents)

And a taxi driver...

The driver had worked on the nights of Friday (September 24) and Saturday (September 25). He first started experiencing symptoms on the Monday.

Ge0rge

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#2789012 4-Oct-2021 11:30

Was the mother vaccinated?

While I have read that babies are being born with antibodies from vaccinated mothers, it would be fascinating to know how effective the antibodies from this transmission are. A complex study for sure, and I don't imagine too many would have been completed yet.

Fred99

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#2789023 4-Oct-2021 11:47

Ge0rge: Was the mother vaccinated?

While I have read that babies are being born with antibodies from vaccinated mothers, it would be fascinating to know how effective the antibodies from this transmission are. A complex study for sure, and I don't imagine too many would have been completed yet.

Someone I know had a niece die from C-19 in Fiji when she almost full term. Baby was delivered by perimortem caesarean and last I heard was doing fine - but the baby has no mother.

Probably not that uncommon for things like that to happen when endemic covid meets a population with low vaccination rates. Being near full-term pregnant is a significant co-morbidity.

My SO works with and around a lot of people involved in the tech industries here - with family in India. I think they have all had deaths of extended family members in India over the past 6 months. If you wonder why people identifying as "asian" have high vaxx rates in NZ, don't put that down solely to "cultural reasons". That might be partly true, but there's nothing quite like having family die a death you can probably avoid to motivate you to get jabbed.

Here in NZ it looks like 25% of the eligible population won't get vaxxed. They will end up being responsible for deaths, but not be held accountable, unless there is a god.

GV27

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#2789024 4-Oct-2021 11:47

Oblivian:

And a taxi driver...

The driver had worked on the nights of Friday (September 24) and Saturday (September 25). He first started experiencing symptoms on the Monday.

I think we're in for some big numbers over the next few days.

Fred99

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#2789028 4-Oct-2021 11:56

GV27:

I think we're in for some big numbers over the next few days.

I agree - but I also think it'll still be the tip of an iceberg. Just based on the number of cases who've "by coincidence" turned up at hospitals for non-covid related treatment, some symptomatic or if not, hard to believe that they weren't aware of being casual or close contacts of known cases/clusters. These people aren't going to be the ones turning up for testing - they'll be avoiding it until or unless they're really sick and desperate.

There's only so much epidemiological modelling can allow for, it's not a homogenous society, of course in a now partially immune population the virus will flourish in pockets of low immunity when those people congregate together - for work or socially.

tdgeek

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#2789029 4-Oct-2021 11:58

GV27:

I think we're in for some big numbers over the next few days.

The numbers are IMO useless. When most of yesterdays tests were door to door tests, its clear that many are not getting a test. If they didnt do those tests, yesterdays might have been 8 cases. All I can feel is the known transmission they pick up is getting more unlinked cases, and if many dont test you never see the real numbers, all you see is the tested people and inevitably their households. That leaves the rest of the iceberg perhaps.

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Jas777

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#2789038 4-Oct-2021 12:12

Not that will say it but You have to think that they were hoping elimination would work but in the back of their minds they knew it probably wouldn't. They would have had 4 weeks to eliminate and once went past that then it is a pipe dream.

The worst case happened in that a big event helped the spread and the timing was an issue. If one of the initial cases had have turned up on the Thursday / Friday of the previous week then level 4 could have stopped the spreading in that weekend.

With vaccination the only way an employer can force you if you are a general worker is if the government makes it compulsory by law. Problem with that is the people more likely to not get vaccinated could decide the next election.

I don't know why people think lockdowns without heavy handed enforcement is going to stop delta. Why would someone who lives in a old cr#ppy apartment block with no or reduced guaranteed income care what someone who lives in a flash house with 100,000+ guaranteed income keeps telling them to do.

Plus in the current climate in NZ you have to pussy foot around what you say about reasons for non vaccination etc and thus you let people think 'why bother' no one going to say anything to me.

freitasm

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Geekzone

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#2789040 4-Oct-2021 12:14

@heavenlywild:

There is no consistency with the PM. She changes her stance and strategy on a whim.

Well, I already told people to discuss politics in the other thread. You won't be able to post here anymore.

ajobbins

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#2789042 4-Oct-2021 12:20

tdgeek:

The numbers are IMO useless.

It was always the case that dropping restrictions without a number of days (at least 7, likely more) of no cases outside of already isolated people would have been needed to have any confidence that there was not any unknown spread. The fact that every day for weeks have had both initially unlinked cases and community exposure events meant the likelihood if it actually being contained wasn't high - which is what is playing out now.

The government likely knew that, and have been trying to keep the public as bought in on containment measures for as long as possible, especially while vax numbers are still relatively low. Like what happened here - once you start telling people elimination is over, your compliance will fall even further.

It's now pretty clear that NZ will not get back to zero cases from this outbreak. From here it's about protecting as many people as possible and minimising the impact on your already stretched and fragile public health system. Elimination was a valiant goal, and NZ was right to pursue it for as long as possible. But the time has come to accept that getting back to zero isn't going to happen, and the focus shift to how best to minimise the harm that is to come.

The next few weeks and months are going to be hard for NZ. You don't have much in the toolkit apart from lockdowns. The short and sharp lockdowns have good public buy in because they are designed to quickly get an outbreak under control and then quickly return to normal. Longer term lockdowns are much harder, but will be necessary for the short-medium term or NZ's public health system will quickly become overwhelmed.

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tdgeek

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#2789048 4-Oct-2021 12:40

ajobbins:

It was always the case that dropping restrictions without a number of days (at least 7, likely more) of no cases outside of already isolated people would have been needed to have any confidence that there was not any unknown spread. The fact that every day for weeks have had both initially unlinked cases and community exposure events meant the likelihood if it actually being contained wasn't high - which is what is playing out now.

The government likely knew that, and have been trying to keep the public as bought in on containment measures for as long as possible, especially while vax numbers are still relatively low. Like what happened here - once you start telling people elimination is over, your compliance will fall even further.

It's now pretty clear that NZ will not get back to zero cases from this outbreak. From here it's about protecting as many people as possible and minimising the impact on your already stretched and fragile public health system. Elimination was a valiant goal, and NZ was right to pursue it for as long as possible. But the time has come to accept that getting back to zero isn't going to happen, and the focus shift to how best to minimise the harm that is to come.

The next few weeks and months are going to be hard for NZ. You don't have much in the toolkit apart from lockdowns. The short and sharp lockdowns have good public buy in because they are designed to quickly get an outbreak under control and then quickly return to normal. Longer term lockdowns are much harder, but will be necessary for the short-medium term or NZ's public health system will quickly become overwhelmed.

I agree, although I dont see how it relates to my post of the numbers are useless. There seems to be so many people that wont test, that the daily case numbers are very much understated. We could have got just 8 cases yesterday as the rest were door to door tests. When you get a lot of non compliance and a lot of people not testing when they should, the daily totals are small snapshot of reality. Tip of the iceberg and we are seeing that play out right now with unlinked cases.

Buster

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#2789049 4-Oct-2021 12:42

ajobbins:

From here it's about protecting as many people as possible and minimising the impact on your already stretched and fragile public health system.

Geographically large areas of NZ still have zero cases (we think). That's worth fighting for.

ajobbins

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#2789052 4-Oct-2021 12:47

tdgeek:

I agree, although I don't see how it relates to my post of the numbers are useless.

Just an acknowledgement that the case numbers clearly haven't been all-inclusive for some time, which is part of the reason why the situation is now what it is, and the implications that follow.

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GV27

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#2789053 4-Oct-2021 12:47

Buster:

Geographically large areas of NZ still have zero cases (we think). That's worth fighting for.

Define 'fighting for'.

Because at the moment one part of the country is doing all the work at enormous social and financial cost, and it's not like all the other areas are on top of their game when it comes to vaccination rates either.

kiwikurt

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#2789056 4-Oct-2021 12:53

GV27:
I mean I'll accept Level 3 for another two weeks if Brian Tamaki has to spend it in prison.

Along with the leadership of City Impact Church. The Tamaki's are charlatans but the media distort their true reach. City Impact are a far greater danger but have managed to keep under the radar.

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