2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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435 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2791507 7-Oct-2021 21:08

I give it two weeks before it is all over the North Island.

I would like to see a hard border for the South Island to at least help keep the economy ticking over.

All freight via container on the trains on to the ferry or tractor trailers dumped on to the ferry and a SI truckie picking up the trailer off the ferry at the other side.

Minimum vaccinated and tested to go to the SI with minimal exceptions to actually go.

What will actually happen, delivery freight driver will unknowingly spread it.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2791510 7-Oct-2021 21:18

alexx:

Are you sure that you're not mixing percentage eligible vs percentage of population?

Oops - you're right. My bad.

I'd blame NYT for the way they present the data - but my fault for not reading carefully enough.

KrazyKid

1238 posts

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#2791542 7-Oct-2021 23:23

Daynger:
I give it two weeks before it is all over the North Island.

My sweepstake date is first south island case November 3rd

Linuxluver

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#2791543 8-Oct-2021 00:11

I have wondered what would happen when Covid got into the communities that take no notice of rules or facts.....and we're finding that out now.

The weakest links.....

These people will kill a few thousand over the next two years. At least we know who to thank.

If we have a million unvaccinated people in NZ - and that assumes 80% vaccination and we're not there yet.......there will be at least several hundred and probably a few thousand dead among that million.

The big spread now is also among children. They are emerging as a major vector for spreading Covid in the UK and the US....and can take home viral loads from school-caught infections that overwhelm their parents' vaccinations......

At this point, with only 70% vaccinated in NZ as an average and the LOT less than that in rural / National areas.....the deaths will be disproportionately among the rural communites relative to their size. That's fascinating because you'd think rural people in NZ would learn from the tragic failure of rural people in America to take this seriously.....but it appears many haven't. So it goes.

The government had done it's best. The more informed and thoughtful and caring among us have done our best......but we've all ultimately been let down by the same flavours of ignorant fools who have killed most of 700,000 in America.

This won't be pretty.

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quickymart

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#2791544 8-Oct-2021 00:16

Linuxluver:

The big spread now is also among children. They are emerging as a major vector for spreading Covid in the UK and the US....and can take home viral loads from school-caught infections that overwhelm their parents' vaccinations......

Saw this on the North Shore Times tonight:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300423153/paediatricians-say-covid-risk-to-preschool-kids-is-low-as-daycares-reopen

Handle9

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#2791546 8-Oct-2021 00:48

quickymart:

Linuxluver:

The big spread now is also among children. They are emerging as a major vector for spreading Covid in the UK and the US....and can take home viral loads from school-caught infections that overwhelm their parents' vaccinations......

Saw this on the North Shore Times tonight:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300423153/paediatricians-say-covid-risk-to-preschool-kids-is-low-as-daycares-reopen

That article is consistent with my experience of the last 12 months. Kids do get covid but the vast majority get over it pretty quickly. In a school of over 2000 children we have had plenty of cases but nothing serious.

Kids can, and do, spread covid but if their parents are vaccinated the risk to the kids and parents is comparatively very low unless there are other factors at play.

Handle9

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#2791547 8-Oct-2021 00:54

Linuxluver:

I have wondered what would happen when Covid got into the communities that take no notice of rules or facts.....and we're finding that out now.

The weakest links.....

These people will kill a few thousand over the next two years. At least we know who to thank.

If we have a million unvaccinated people in NZ - and that assumes 80% vaccination and we're not there yet.......there will be at least several hundred and probably a few thousand dead among that million.

The big spread now is also among children. They are emerging as a major vector for spreading Covid in the UK and the US....and can take home viral loads from school-caught infections that overwhelm their parents' vaccinations......

At this point, with only 70% vaccinated in NZ as an average and the LOT less than that in rural / National areas.....the deaths will be disproportionately among the rural communites relative to their size. That's fascinating because you'd think rural people in NZ would learn from the tragic failure of rural people in America to take this seriously.....but it appears many haven't. So it goes.

The government had done it's best. The more informed and thoughtful and caring among us have done our best......but we've all ultimately been let down by the same flavours of ignorant fools who have killed most of 700,000 in America.

This won't be pretty.

It'd be good if you left your political biases at the door. The regional statistics don't tally with what you are saying and there really isn't the sort of variance in vaccination that there is in the US. The best vaccinated region has about 15% more than the least vaccinated region. That will change as personal safety becomes more of a problem for people in remote areas.

There seems to be a normal distribution of vaccination based on socio-economic factors rather than political bias.

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Batman

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#2791550 8-Oct-2021 05:10

Vaccine for 5-11 coming soon to a theatre near you...

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/300425772/pfizer-asks-us-to-approve-covid-vaccines-for-children-aged-5-to-11

tdgeek

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#2791552 8-Oct-2021 06:36

Fred99:

tdgeek:

So, the 90%+ wont happen, but if it stalls at 87% or less, then push forward. Cant help those that cant help themselves.

I hope you're wrong.

With the right persuasion to round up the "hesitant" I think it's possible. NZ isn't the US where they've been rolling out vaccine since the start of the year - but we only got started with relatively unhindered access a month or so ago.

NZ already has a higher rate of first dose administered - 80%. (82% booked) vs 65% US average. (NY Times data)

The highest ranked US states (Vermont and Massachusetts) are at 78%, West Virginia and Idaho only 48%.

So do I. I just dont get that some normal people I know are just meh over this virus. Inconvenienced is the theme.

Batman

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#2791555 8-Oct-2021 06:39

Nsw hits 70% double dose 89% first dose

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/restaurants-gyms-set-to-reopen-as-nsw-passes-70-per-cent-double-dose-mark-20211006-p58xsy.html

sbiddle

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#2791558 8-Oct-2021 06:53

A couple of new NEMJ studies out overnight that I've read this morning - with both being non peer reviewed but offering some very interesting insights and summaries especially in light of several other studies in the past week that have shown very similar results.

From Israel https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114255

"At least 12 days after the booster dose, the rate of confirmed infection was lower in the booster group than in the nonbooster group by a factor of 11.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4 to 12.3); the rate of severe illness was lower by a factor of 19.5 (95% CI, 12.9 to 29.5). In a secondary analysis, the rate of confirmed infection at least 12 days after vaccination was lower than the rate after 4 to 6 days by a factor of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.8 to 6.1)."

From Qatar https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2114114

"Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible for the first 2 weeks after the first dose, increased to 36.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2 to 40.2) in the third week after the first dose, and reached its peak at 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4 to 78.6) in the first month after the second dose (Table 2 and Figure 2A). However, effectiveness declined gradually, starting from the first month after the second dose. The decline accelerated after the fourth month, and effectiveness reached a low level of approximately 20% in months 5 through 7 after the second dose. A sensitivity analysis that adjusted for previous infection and health care worker status confirmed the main analysis results (Table 3)."

Where do I sign up for my booster? For those of us who were vaccinated before July the data that's coming out in multiple studies showing the need for boosters ASAP is now becoming increasingly clear.

GV27

5896 posts

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#2791559 8-Oct-2021 06:59

I am double-jabbed. Didn't get crook enough for a day off work. Not even a sore arm.

Gonna be interesting to see how this weekend goes in Auckland given the weather forecasts. Gonna be a bunch of indoor bubble bursting, me thinks.

cshwone

1070 posts

Uber Geek

#2791560 8-Oct-2021 07:04

sbiddle:

Where do I sign up for my booster? For those of us who were vaccinated before July the data that's coming out in multiple studies showing the need for boosters ASAP is now becoming increasingly clear.

In other words all the original Group 1 and 2 people!!

Handle9

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#2791565 8-Oct-2021 07:41

Batman: Nsw hits 70% double dose 89% first dose

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/restaurants-gyms-set-to-reopen-as-nsw-passes-70-per-cent-double-dose-mark-20211006-p58xsy.html

Their vaccination rates are outstanding. It would be worth considering whether the strategy that got them there can be replicated.

Oblivian

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#2791568 8-Oct-2021 07:49

Handle9: Their vaccination rates are outstanding. It would be worth considering whether the strategy that got them there can be replicated.

'no haircut's or beauty spas until you lot hit target!' ?

Was that or the eventually applied road closures blocking off the city and burbs.

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