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KrazyKid
1238 posts

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  #2794541 13-Oct-2021 15:48
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itey:

 

87% of eligible Aucklanders have had first vaccination, 65% fully vaccinated.  At a guess there will be 90% vaccinated after "Super Saturday". The govt is dropping the ball by not having a clear strategy going forward

 

 

 

 

While they haven't written it down all in one place, it is clear to me that the Auckland Strategy is:

 

1) Vaccinate like hell and get an many of the missing population groups up as fast as possible.
       The protection of 80% double dosed (plus 14 more days for the vaccine to take full effect) is at least a month away.

 

2) By end of November:
        Open a Auckland to a 2.5 delta with shops and hospitality open with number limits (assuming daily covid cases increases flatten out at some point (or fall) - R number near or below one).
        Open Auckland Schools with bubbles (as early as they feel they can safely do this).

 

3) The border with the rest of NZ and Auckland stays for as long as it is effective and the rest of NZ hasn't caught up in vaccinations.
        Wouldn't surprise me that there is a border until after the 5+ jabs get done if they get approval this year (say comes down during Feb) assuming it holds somehow.

 

4) Home Isolation in Auckland for most is also in the plan and coming soon (2 weeks away max IMHO).

 

I'm not sure why they haven't spelt this out clearly.
They don't want to scare people, or maybe don't feel it is good to be locked into a plan yet??




Oblivian
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  #2794544 13-Oct-2021 15:53
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They had a question yesterday as they had sampled some people and noted there was a discrepancy from 1st jabbers going back for a 2nd.

 

Hopefully that doesn't become 'a thing'. Or the 'booked for 2nd' or total isn't as promising as we would hope


GV27
5897 posts

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  #2794545 13-Oct-2021 15:55
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Coming out and saying Auckland will be locked off past Xmas would torch whatever buy-in is left.




Batman

Mad Scientist
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  #2794550 13-Oct-2021 16:03
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i have a feeling they're waiting on the vaccine certificate before deciding anything ... not sure why but it's consistent with govt they operate ...

 

though i only watch the tv from time to time and every time i hear "we are watching the outbreak" and "not enough people vaccinated"

 

so presumably they want people to get vaccinated but not because the govt is forcing them, but by the people's own free will in their own sweet time.

 

and i'm not sure how to decode "we're watching the outbreak". i think if you tie in with the vaccine comment, it means "if outbreak goes away we will say we did it, if it doesn't go away then we will move to opening up like NSW". they can always declare an outbreak over i guess, like they declared the first outbreak over and the current situation is declared as some new outbreaks


Batman

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  #2794603 13-Oct-2021 16:08
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herald's take on today's situation https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-virus-is-spreading-in-auckland-chris-hipkins/ACYFUEDXWU2POOGSQ4FZFQQKEM/

 

maybe time for some journos to ask the question of where to from here


trig42
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  #2794607 13-Oct-2021 16:11
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It'll seed pretty quickly to the rest of the country once Auckland case numbers rise over the 100+ a day (I give it to the weekend before we hit 100 a day).

 

Truck drivers, and any other number of people who are actually allowed over the border don't have to be vaccinated (why?!?!?) let alone the people crossing the border who aren't allowed to. Testing will catch them, but not till it's too late and they've passed it to their partners, kids and friends.

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or an epidemiologist, to tell us that these truck drivers etc will seed it to the regions. I give it two weeks. 

 

 

 

Then we're all having a merry Christmas.

 

 

 

Just wish the government would actually commit to something, and tell us what is going on. Or, do they genuinely not know? They are keeping us in the dark to some extent, which I don't think they did last year. They can see now we are heading to widespread Covid in Auckland - it's obvious R is over 1. They've ruled out L4.

 

Meanwhile, a city waits, most of whom are vaccinated and the vast vast majority have done exactly the right thing for 8 weeks.

 

 


 
 
 

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).
Oblivian
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  #2794617 13-Oct-2021 16:30
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Batman:

 

herald's take on today's situation https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-virus-is-spreading-in-auckland-chris-hipkins/ACYFUEDXWU2POOGSQ4FZFQQKEM/

 

maybe time for some journos to ask the question of where to from here

 

It was a pressured line of questioning that got that quote.

 

Toward wrap up was comments over elimination vs erradication. And then someone asked it straight up if vaccination was our only out now.

 

That was his answer. 

 

https://youtu.be/zs8a_fSKmJY?t=2947 


wellygary
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  #2794620 13-Oct-2021 16:38
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trig42:

 

It'll seed pretty quickly to the rest of the country once Auckland case numbers rise over the 100+ a day (I give it to the weekend before we hit 100 a day).

 

Truck drivers, and any other number of people who are actually allowed over the border don't have to be vaccinated (why?!?!?) let alone the people crossing the border who aren't allowed to. Testing will catch them, but not till it's too late and they've passed it to their partners, kids and friends.

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or an epidemiologist, to tell us that these truck drivers etc will seed it to the regions. I give it two weeks. 

 

 

In a week Auckland will be verging on 75% double doses (12+ pop)  and by Labour weekend (10 days) it should be nearing 85%, that should start to slow case growth....

 

As for the border, that relies on the rest of the country getting Vaxxed....  

 

 


Handle9
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  #2794624 13-Oct-2021 16:49
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wellygary:

 

trig42:

 

It'll seed pretty quickly to the rest of the country once Auckland case numbers rise over the 100+ a day (I give it to the weekend before we hit 100 a day).

 

Truck drivers, and any other number of people who are actually allowed over the border don't have to be vaccinated (why?!?!?) let alone the people crossing the border who aren't allowed to. Testing will catch them, but not till it's too late and they've passed it to their partners, kids and friends.

 

It doesn't take a rocket scientist, or an epidemiologist, to tell us that these truck drivers etc will seed it to the regions. I give it two weeks. 

 

 

In a week Auckland will be verging on 75% double doses (12+ pop)  and by Labour weekend (10 days) it should be nearing 85%, that should start to slow case growth....

 

As for the border, that relies on the rest of the country getting Vaxxed....  

 

 

I'd doubt you'd see a slow in case growth with 85% vaccination levels - it's only around 73% of total population. While you are in the early stage, which means you'll have to have significant case growth before it starts stabilising. 


arcon
423 posts

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  #2794626 13-Oct-2021 16:57
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trig42:

 

Just wish the government would actually commit to something, and tell us what is going on. Or, do they genuinely not know? They are keeping us in the dark to some extent, which I don't think they did last year.

 

 

I'm trying to find vaccination data specifically for Auckland (i.e. all locked down areas inc North Shore). Can anyone provide a link?

 

According to MOH website nationwide its 83% first dose, with 84% first dose or booked... implying the remaining 17% are just a hard pass. That's a big f@$#ing problem... but hopefully Auckland is higher than that?

 

This is speculation but it feels like the awful communication is because they are just hanging out & preying that Super Saturday is going to push first doses to 95% in Auckland which sounds like wishful thinking.


Handle9
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  #2794627 13-Oct-2021 17:01
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arcon:

 

trig42:

 

Just wish the government would actually commit to something, and tell us what is going on. Or, do they genuinely not know? They are keeping us in the dark to some extent, which I don't think they did last year.

 

 

I'm trying to find vaccination data specifically for Auckland (i.e. all locked down areas inc North Shore). Can anyone provide a link?

 

According to MOH website nationwide its 83% first dose, with 84% first dose or booked... implying the remaining 17% are just a hard pass. That's a big f@$#ing problem... but hopefully Auckland is higher than that?

 

This is speculation but it feels like the awful communication is because they are just hanging out & preying that Super Saturday is going to push first doses to 95% in Auckland which sounds like wishful thinking.

 

 

The booked data is effectively meaningless and has been for some time. New daily first doses have been reasonably steady at 0.25%-0.3% of total population for the last few weeks.


wellygary
8328 posts

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  #2794628 13-Oct-2021 17:06
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arcon:

 

I'm trying to find vaccination data specifically for Auckland (i.e. all locked down areas inc North Shore). Can anyone provide a link?

 

According to MOH website nationwide its 83% first dose, with 84% first dose or booked... implying the remaining 17% are just a hard pass. That's a big f@$#ing problem... but hopefully Auckland is higher than that?

 

This is speculation but it feels like the awful communication is because they are just hanging out & preying that Super Saturday is going to push first doses to 95% in Auckland which sounds like wishful thinking.

 

 

MoH publish Auckland vax data in the daily updates

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/55-community-cases-covid-19-more-72000-vaccines-administered-yesterday

 

COVID-19 vaccine update  

 

Vaccines administered to date (total): 5,975,273; 1st doses: 3,480,716; 2nd doses: 2,494,557
Vaccines administered yesterday (total): 72,683; 1st doses: 17,396; 2nd doses: 55,287
Māori: 1st doses: 353,840; 2nd doses: 224,718
Pacific Peoples: 1st doses: 221,524; 2nd doses: 151,625
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents to date (total): 2,172,921 1st doses: 1,248,744 (87%); 2nd doses: 924,177 (65%)
Vaccines administered to Auckland residents yesterday (total): 23,049: 1st doses: 4,427; 2nd doses: 18,622


wellygary
8328 posts

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  #2794631 13-Oct-2021 17:19
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Handle9:

 

The booked data is effectively meaningless and has been for some time. New daily first doses have been reasonably steady at 0.25%-0.3% of total population for the last few weeks.

 

 

Yeah, The people who are getting first Jabs now are pretty much all unbooked walk ups/Drive throughs/ Vax vans

 

At  .3% it will take just under a month to push past 90%... 

 

 

 

But it is quite clear that the number the govt is watching is the Maori vaccination rate which is lagging..

 

1st dose 353,845    62%    second dose 224,725    39.4% 

 

Maori first doses are growing by around 0.7% a day, meaning  around 30 days to get to 80% first dose... and then presumably 3 weeks to that for full vax, which dumps us near mid December.... 


ezbee
2405 posts

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  #2794665 13-Oct-2021 18:22
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The potential conflagration if we go down in restrictions while groups are with low % vaccinated will prob hold things back.
We now have the prospect of how can we manage this when its in groups that don't co-operate too.
Go on the run when tested positive, attempted escapes from MIQ seem to be a thing too.
Cases in a dialysis unit just a warning that essential care may become impossible pretty quickly in any sizeable outbreak.

 

Yesterday we had a news item on a childcare center upset about vaccine mandates would destroy her business.
Next day we have a childcare center as a significant cluster.

 

Teachers complaining about vaccine mandate need to think a bit, the virus is not going to enter fair negotiations.

 

Those in level 3 are buying limited time for everyone to just get vaccinated. 


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