2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2837580 24-Dec-2021 07:53

Buster:

Will be interesting to see if you can force 'herd immunity' on everyone. Regardless of anything, not everyone is going to go out and circulate with the idea of contracting Covid this summer. Large numbers of people will still try and minimise the odds by masking up but also mostly by simply not going out.

Yep. The preferable herd immunity is via the vaccine and the booster. In the interim, lay low. And that doesn't mean stuck at home, just be vigilant and sensible

tdgeek

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#2837581 24-Dec-2021 07:56

DS248:

Covid-19 boosters after four months already available

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/458526/covid-19-boosters-after-four-months-already-available

I'm eligible on 2 Jan, should I go then, or wait till we get some holiday spread happening then front up?

DS248

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#2837582 24-Dec-2021 08:00

DS248:

... as of 21 Dec there had been 18 Omicron deaths in England, and 195 hospitalisations (England), up from your figure yesterday of 133 for UK.

...

One day on (up to 22 Dec): Omicron deaths now 24, hospitalisations up 50% to 300 (data for England only)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043758/20211223_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf

sbiddle

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#2837583 24-Dec-2021 08:03

freitasm:

sbiddle:

freitasm:

What is your position then? Do you think we should let it rip through communities? Open up everything, forget vaccine pass? Let flights in and out from any country. without MIQ or isolation?

What is exactly your opinion here, @sbiddle?

I'm a realist. Omicron is going to end up ripping through our country eventually regardless of what we do - that's an almost dead certainty. Once we have our first CT of it there is no going back, ad with the transmissibility of Omicron we're dreaming if we think there won't be leaks through MIQ very soon as case numbers inside MIQ soar.

I agree with this but you didn't answer my questions. What is your position? What would you do? Open up everything, forget vaccine pass? Let flights in and out from any country. without MIQ or isolation?

Assuming we have Omicron CT here within 1-2 weeks and see cases having peaked in places like NSW I would be adopting the exact same plan our government announced in November which is reopening of the borders commencing from late January.

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#2837584 24-Dec-2021 08:07

tdgeek:

DS248:

Covid-19 boosters after four months already available

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/458526/covid-19-boosters-after-four-months-already-available

I'm eligible on 2 Jan, should I go then, or wait till we get some holiday spread happening then front up?

Considering how I got smashed for 48 hours after and know a number of other people who have been for 2-3 days (who didn't suffer badly at all with the first two doses) my recommendation would be to get it done when you don't have anything important on for a couple of days incase you do get badly affected by it.

It seems to be a bit of a mixed bag with some people not seeing any side effects at all, and others being hit quite badly.

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#2837585 24-Dec-2021 08:15

tdgeek:

Buster:

Will be interesting to see if you can force 'herd immunity' on everyone. Regardless of anything, not everyone is going to go out and circulate with the idea of contracting Covid this summer. Large numbers of people will still try and minimise the odds by masking up but also mostly by simply not going out.

Yep. The preferable herd immunity is via the vaccine and the booster. In the interim, lay low. And that doesn't mean stuck at home, just be vigilant and sensible

Except vaccines and boosters are still only modest protection against contracting Omicron. Current expert data is showing protection at around 75% depending on the study, and from chatting to a few friends in both the UK and US in recent days they all know people who are double vaxxed + booster who are catching Covid.

There are many experts who believe that 75% figure is on the high side due to the issue at present where there is clearly massive under reporting of true Covid case numbers.

I trhink it's safe to say NZers live in fear of Covid. Most people I know overseas in the UK and US and even Australia no longer do.

tdgeek

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#2837587 24-Dec-2021 08:22

sbiddle:

Except vaccines and boosters are still only modest protection against contracting Omicron. Current expert data is showing protection at around 75% depending on the study, and from chatting to a few friends in both the UK and US in recent days they all know people who are double vaxxed + booster who are catching Covid.

There are many experts who believe that 75% figure is on the high side due to the issue at present where there is clearly massive under reporting of true Covid case numbers.

I trhink it's safe to say NZers live in fear of Covid. Most people I know overseas in the UK and US and even Australia no longer do.

Catching Covid is not the issue. Id like to try and avoid that if I can, but its about protection from severe illness etc.

I dont know anyone who is in fear of it. It rarely pops up in conversation unless I mention it. So its not safe to say that NZ ers are in fear.

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#2837589 24-Dec-2021 08:34

ABC article with summary of concerns related to Omicron and children. It spreads faster and children are great spreaders. Data from South Africa shows in increased hospitalisation for children:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/pediatric-covid-cases-surging-millions-children-remain-unvaccinated/story?id=81880834

vexxxboy

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#2837594 24-Dec-2021 08:51

DS248:

DS248:

... as of 21 Dec there had been 18 Omicron deaths in England, and 195 hospitalisations (England), up from your figure yesterday of 133 for UK.

...

One day on (up to 22 Dec): Omicron deaths now 24, hospitalisations up 50% to 300 (data for England only)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043758/20211223_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf

out of 300,000 tested cases ,so will be even higher, so really low numbers

Common sense is not as common as you think.

DS248

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#2837597 24-Dec-2021 08:59

Another emerging issue with Omicron in NSW (& will likely apply most places) - potential 'massive disruption' due to close contact rules. Unlike in lockdowns, the impact on staffing will be across the board, including medical and other essential workers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-24/covid-isolation-rules-to-cause-disruption-for-crucial-industries/100723440

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#2837600 24-Dec-2021 09:02

vexxxboy:

out of 300,000 tested cases ,so will be even higher, so really low numbers

vexxxboy

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#2837601 24-Dec-2021 09:04

a report out of the UK

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59769969

Common sense is not as common as you think.

DS248

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#2837604 24-Dec-2021 09:06

vexxxboy:

DS248:

... One day on (up to 22 Dec): Omicron deaths now 24, hospitalisations up 50% to 300 (data for England only)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043758/20211223_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf

out of 300,000 tested cases ,so will be even higher, so really low numbers

300,000 tested cases is not a relevant parameter for hospitalisations.

More relevant, perhaps you can provide case numbers in the 70+ age bracket with a 7 day lag. And account for vaccination status.

SJB

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#2837607 24-Dec-2021 09:18

sbiddle:

The real question is what NZ will do in 1-2 weeks when NSW and then Australian cases as a whole peak and then start rapidly declining. Will we still go down the new path we're going down with delayed reopenings or will we just backtrack?

Where's the evidence that will happen?

The UK is seeing 100,000+ cases per day, almost all Delta if the Omicron figures are to be believed, so they still have the full effect of Omicron to be added on top of that in the New Year when the results of people mixing at Christmas will start to show up.

There's no reason Australia won't go the same way.

SJB

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#2837616 24-Dec-2021 09:23

vexxxboy:

a report out of the UK

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59769969

Of concern in that article is the statement that booster shot effectiveness wanes after only 8-10 weeks. If it's true and if the Omicron outbreak hangs around I can't see people rocking up to get boosted every 8 weeks.

And especially not getting their kids boosted again and again.

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