2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2861704 4-Feb-2022 12:39

tdgeek:

vexxxboy:

well it seems the projections from the modellers for 50,000 cases by Waitangi day might be slightly off.

It was to be 200 a day on Wednesday and 400 cases a day by today

it was reported in some media based on modelling that we would have 50,000 cases by Waitangi, even the govt has said they may have got it wrong.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-chris-hipkins-compares-modelling-with-weather-forecasts-ive-always-been-sceptical/YHVOHODHUI4FHUDO6MAWLLTO7U/

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Benoire

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#2861706 4-Feb-2022 12:46

I think what is making it harder is that our infection rate is not doubling (or hasn't been) as it was overseas every 3(?) days as the models suggested and overseas experiece and so its thrown everything off whack, as with all modelling its based on mathematical approaches with a series of inputs and assumptions... if the assumptions don't actually come to fruition then the model wont be right... doesn't mean the model is wrong, but the inputs have not occured in the expected way.

Rikkitic

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#2861713 4-Feb-2022 13:08

If the model can't allow for inputs not occurring in the expected way, that says to me that the model is wrong.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Benoire

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#2861716 4-Feb-2022 13:16

Rikkitic:

If the model can't allow for inputs not occurring in the expected way, that says to me that the model is wrong.

The model is simply a model, it takes inputs and assumptions and runs through a process and delivers a series of outputs. Models are updated constantly based on new assumptions and information and then rerun with different scenarios. These are used to aid in planning for events. So in this case, the original modelling prodcuign the large numbers of infections where based upon assumptions and data seen overseas that perhaps hasn't occured due to different variables which may not have been known at the time... i.e. NZ pop acting like tortoises and keeping themselves in a pseudo lockdown state individually.

wellygary

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#2861731 4-Feb-2022 13:51

209, now we're getting started...

I guess contract tracing and isolating have help slow the spread over the last couple of weeks, but Contact tracing in the Delta outbreak got really stretched once we got around 200, So i'm guessing case numbers are gonna really start trucking along now...

ezbee

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#2861733 4-Feb-2022 13:56

The model was potential, we have seen that potential in what was highly vaccinated Australia.
You could tick the widespread masking box and numbers dropped a third.
Plus it was the expected real cases, look at the verified cases and numbers about 5x less.
Actually an overseas model that local modelers could review their conclusions against.

However population density and behavior are perhaps different.
As much as each state of Australia progressed in a different manner.

Just buying time and once growth grows a wider base at some point, it maybe quite different.
Given the numbers in regions it looks like geographic spread is deepening.

Northland growth a bit concerning given vaccination rate and some wanting to gather at Waitangi in face of this.

South Island seems to have more time than rest of us.

I'd happily take the delay to the bank, and the vaccination center :-)

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Benoire

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#2861734 4-Feb-2022 13:57

wellygary:

209, now we're getting started...

I guess contract tracing and isolating have help slow the spread over the last couple of weeks, but Contact tracing in the Delta outbreak got really stretched once we got around 200, So i'm guessing case numbers are gonna really start trucking along now...

Interesting how Auckland numbers are not increasing dramitcally though, slow steady increase... wonder if its due to us having isolated many times and so doing it again naturally.. certianly the malls seems a lot quieter than you'd expect for the setting, compared to the regions which I suspect will pick up the pace.

Scott3

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#2861751 4-Feb-2022 14:23

cshwone:

Ge0rge: People are still doing the "transit to Fiji but refuse to board once in Akl", so I can't see remaining in Aus for 14 days being too much of an issue.

Interested in your source for that

Another example.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/border-busting-boss-chris-knuth-slips-into-nz-without-miq-voucher

Assume there would be many more people doing it quietly than those who choose to share it with the media.

A 14 day holiday in Aussie doesn't sound so bad. I assume most will play by the rules on that front.

KrazyKid

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#2861758 4-Feb-2022 14:46

A Queensland Study finds between 10 - 20% of people out in the the gold coast community are infected with covid and most had no idea or symptoms.

Just to make sure you know how wide spread covid really is/will be in NZ - here is the results from a small randomized study from the gold cost in Queensland NSW.

117 random people tested on the 22 Jan via PCR.

20 came back positive.
Only 4 showed symptoms
Only 2 thought they might have covid.

A repeat study done a week later of 114 random people

11 People came back positive
Only 6 people had symptoms

Most people in the study with mild or no symptoms were fully vaccinated.

Jas777

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#2861762 4-Feb-2022 14:52

ezbee:

The model was potential, we have seen that potential in what was highly vaccinated Australia.
You could tick the widespread masking box and numbers dropped a third.
Plus it was the expected real cases, look at the verified cases and numbers about 5x less.
Actually an overseas model that local modelers could review their conclusions against.

However population density and behavior are perhaps different.
As much as each state of Australia progressed in a different manner.

Just buying time and once growth grows a wider base at some point, it maybe quite different.
Given the numbers in regions it looks like geographic spread is deepening.

Northland growth a bit concerning given vaccination rate and some wanting to gather at Waitangi in face of this.

South Island seems to have more time than rest of us.

I'd happily take the delay to the bank, and the vaccination center :-)

The biggest spreader will be family and social inter-mingling, The rate of spread could be slower because the big rush of family and social get togethers over the Christmas , New Year have eased and the fact also the big concerts and events in end of Jan and in Feb are not taking place.

It might just mean double every 5 to 7 days instead of 3.

Also the big event to get a spread going might happen with the first time it appears or could be the 3rd or 4th so get a week or so lag to it gets going.

wellygary

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#2861785 4-Feb-2022 15:25

KrazyKid:

A Queensland Study finds between 10 - 20% of people out in the the gold coast community are infected with covid and most had no idea or symptoms.

That fits with a UK study quoted by the Moh In the most recent variant report

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/3-february-2022-variants-update.pdf

(page 2)

• The most common symptoms reported for Omicron infection are sore throat, cough, runny/stuffy nose, and fatigue. Recent data supports earlier reports that loss of smell and taste is less commonly reported.

- Recent UK survey data suggests 25% of people with Omicron infection may be asymptomatic.

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quickymart

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#2861808 4-Feb-2022 16:19

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/02/whanganui-iwi-vaccination-clinic-and-staff-egged-by-anti-vaxxers.html

Pathetic much? Antivaxxers: just try talking to the experts, rather than getting your medical advice off social media!

tdgeek

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#2861826 4-Feb-2022 16:49

Benoire:

I think what is making it harder is that our infection rate is not doubling (or hasn't been) as it was overseas every 3(?) days as the models suggested and overseas experiece and so its thrown everything off whack, as with all modelling its based on mathematical approaches with a series of inputs and assumptions... if the assumptions don't actually come to fruition then the model wont be right... doesn't mean the model is wrong, but the inputs have not occured in the expected way.

It may be like the bottom of the Bell Curve, it is increasing and over 200 today, but still not that many out there. Plus there are the "I dont feel that well lets keep it quiet" and those that are asymptomatic. I read somewhere that an estimate was 8 cases out there fr every reported case, i guess hospital beds and ICU are the only reliable metrics now

tdgeek

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#2861828 4-Feb-2022 16:52

KrazyKid:

A Queensland Study finds between 10 - 20% of people out in the the gold coast community are infected with covid and most had no idea or symptoms.

Just to make sure you know how wide spread covid really is/will be in NZ - here is the results from a small randomized study from the gold cost in Queensland NSW.

117 random people tested on the 22 Jan via PCR.

20 came back positive.
Only 4 showed symptoms
Only 2 thought they might have covid.

A repeat study done a week later of 114 random people

11 People came back positive
Only 6 people had symptoms

Most people in the study with mild or no symptoms were fully vaccinated.

The Silent Enemy. The saving grace is the effects are milder

HelloThere

179 posts

Master Geek
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#2861829 4-Feb-2022 16:56

Novavax Gains Provisional Approval

One step closer to our local mayor getting the jab.

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