2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2903957 19-Apr-2022 16:33

Paul1977:

But that's my point. There's a scale of how much COVID has contributed to many of the deaths, some would have died anyway and some wouldn't have - but both will be classified as COVID contributing to death.

They look at excess death/mortality for that

PolicyGuy

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#2903967 19-Apr-2022 17:01

Ragnor:

Paul1977:

But that's my point. There's a scale of how much COVID has contributed to many of the deaths, some would have died anyway and some wouldn't have - but both will be classified as COVID contributing to death.

They look at excess death/mortality for that

Excess deaths only gives you a very-big-picture view, in NZ's case a national figure.
In any case, we showed negative excess deaths in 2020 - I'm not sure if the 2021 figures are out yet, but they'll probably also be negative. This is because not only did we have very few Covid deaths, we also had many fewer deaths than usual from flu and other lung infections. That was because of lockdowns, no imported infections (borders closed) and everyone wearing masks. Even fewer road deaths because of lockdowns
Excess deaths will not be helpful in NZ for calculating the Covid toll.

Unfortunately, we're going to have to rely on individual deaths being determined as "with Covid-19" or "from Covid-19", and getting that information will depend on Coroners' Inquests, which are all backlogged up the wazoo. Unless the government appoints a bunch of extra Coroners - and neither this nor previous governments have shown any inclination despite years of complaints - it will most likely be 2023 before we get any accurate figures for 2020, and 2024 for the answers for 2021
😡

tdgeek

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#2903976 19-Apr-2022 17:12

WHO decreed the method to assess deaths, why, I have no idea. But at least we have been advised that of the 500 deaths, (then) 51 were caused by Covid, so that gives all of us a line in the sand. Not perfect but its more accurate than a car crash victim with Covid being a statistic. Mental health wise, its positive that the true figure is less alarming than the WHO figure. Doesnt mean for many that Omicron Covid is not alarming, but its less alarming. That give a little bit of solace for the more vulnerable.

DS248

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#2904113 19-Apr-2022 20:07

tdgeek:

WHO decreed the method to assess deaths, why, I have no idea. But at least we have been advised that of the 500 deaths, (then) 51 were caused by Covid, so that gives all of us a line in the sand. Not perfect but its more accurate than a car crash victim with Covid being a statistic. Mental health wise, its positive that the true figure is less alarming than the WHO figure. Doesnt mean for many that Omicron Covid is not alarming, but its less alarming. That give a little bit of solace for the more vulnerable.

You are still missing the point that 514 (was 441) deaths are still to be categorised.

On the figures currently on the health.govt.nz website (8 pm, 19 Apr), only 60 deaths have been officially coded so far:

51 (85%) have been officially coded as due to COVID-19 (4 of which 'occurred more than 28 days after testing positive')
8 (13.3%) where COVID-19 has been coded as contributing to death
1 (1.7%) ruled as not related to COVID-19.

Who knows if those or similar proportions will hold for the remaining 514 deaths yet to be categorised but they are widely different to the 51/500 (10.2%) you seem to be implying 'were caused by Covid'.

tdgeek

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#2904170 20-Apr-2022 07:57

DS248:

You are still missing the point that 514 (was 441) deaths are still to be categorised.

==

On the figures currently on the health.govt.nz website (8 pm, 19 Apr), only 60 deaths have been officially coded so far:

51 (85%) have been officially coded as due to COVID-19 (4 of which 'occurred more than 28 days after testing positive')
8 (13.3%) where COVID-19 has been coded as contributing to death
1 (1.7%) ruled as not related to COVID-19.
Who knows if those or similar proportions will hold for the remaining 514 deaths yet to be categorised but they are widely different to the 51/500 (10.2%) you seem to be implying 'were caused by Covid'.

The articles stated that only 51 of the 500 were caused by Covid, and the rest were deaths while they have Covid. So how long is a death going to be held in limbo before its categorised? Months?

DS248

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#2904172 20-Apr-2022 08:17

tdgeek:

DS248:

You are still missing the point that 514 (was 441) deaths are still to be categorised.

==

On the figures currently on the health.govt.nz website (8 pm, 19 Apr), only 60 deaths have been officially coded so far:

51 (85%) have been officially coded as due to COVID-19 (4 of which 'occurred more than 28 days after testing positive')
8 (13.3%) where COVID-19 has been coded as contributing to death
1 (1.7%) ruled as not related to COVID-19.
Who knows if those or similar proportions will hold for the remaining 514 deaths yet to be categorised but they are widely different to the 51/500 (10.2%) you seem to be implying 'were caused by Covid'.

The articles stated that only 51 of the 500 were caused by Covid, and the rest were deaths while they have Covid. So how long is a death going to be held in limbo before its categorised? Months?

Not certain what 'article' you are referring to but that is not what it says in the item on the MoH website.

In particular, it does not say that "only 51 of the 500 were caused by Covid".

In effect it says that 51 of the 60 deaths coded were "due to COVID-19". That is, 85% of the deaths that have been coded so far were "due to COVID-19".

FWIW, all of the (then) 500 deaths were 'deaths while they had Covid'. But so far we have only been told the cause categories for 60 of those.

Yes, probably months before they publish the categories for the remaining cases.

Oblivian

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#2904183 20-Apr-2022 08:52

The me me me win over 'how stuff actually transfers' again.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-pilot-announces-everyone-can-remove-their-mask-mid-flight/INV26F3I2Y3RWQLCPELVFTN334/

Nevermind the upper east states are again having a mass spread issue.

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

PolicyGuy

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#2904287 20-Apr-2022 12:25

tdgeek:

The articles stated that only 51 of the 500 were caused by Covid, and the rest were deaths while they have Covid. So how long is a death going to be held in limbo before its categorised? Months?

If, as I expect, these deaths go through the 'normal' Coroner process, it'll be nearer two years than a few months.

According to official statistics it currently takes an average of 455 days to close a coronial case – it’s just over 400 days in Auckland and more than 600 days in Christchurch. ... Aupito William Sio, the Minister of Courts, reckons the number of coronial inquiries awaiting decision will be 3,500 by January 2024, up on more than 3,000 currently.

https://riskinfonz.co.nz/2021/08/16/coroners-court-backlog-could-delay-full-death-benefit-payments/

FineWine

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#2904437 20-Apr-2022 15:39

Oblivian: The me me me win over 'how stuff actually transfers' again.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-pilot-announces-everyone-can-remove-their-mask-mid-flight/INV26F3I2Y3RWQLCPELVFTN334/

Nevermind the upper east states are again having a mass spread issue.

This is the important bit:

During the flight, the Biden administration announced it would no longer enforce a US mask mandate on public transportation, including on board flights, after a federal judge in Florida on Monday ruled that the 14-month-old directive was unlawful, overturning a key White House effort to reduce the spread of Covid-19.

Ahhh Florida. Land of The Free, Home of The Brave. Sorry that should read; Land of the Republicans, Home of the Idiots Ah Trump

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

johno1234

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#2904438 20-Apr-2022 15:43

Be nice if we could keep this a little less political.

Buster

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#2904439 20-Apr-2022 15:47

Looking at it simplistically, when figures of 500 die from flu per year, why not just use similar criteria for determining Covid deaths.

I'm sure some of the 500 flu deaths per year had other co morbidities going on but are determined to be flu deaths (because it suits someone's agenda).

Rikkitic

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#2904441 20-Apr-2022 15:55

johno1234:

Be nice if we could keep this a little less political.

Covid-19 is political. It shouldn't be, but some people who care more about their right to infect others than about public health have made it so.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

DS248

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#2904455 20-Apr-2022 16:43

NZ & AU Omicron outbreaks - Fun facts dept.

Two plots of the same data:

Plot 1: Cases (pm per day) vs Days since start of Omicron outbreak

Note: Days since start of outbreak adjusted so that case onset rates were similar between ~200 and 800 cases pm per day

Very similar peaks in case rates in NZ and other AU states, with WA the only outlier
Lower and later peak in WA (a significant difference – these are log plots)
QLD and ACT had much faster initial ramp up (due to seeding from NSW)
Very clear weekly ‘sawtooth’ pattern, especially post-peak
NZ & WA outbreaks 50 – 60 days behind the others
NZ & WA case rates higher than in other jurisdictions at similar stages post-peak (due to BA.2 variant impacting all at the same time)
Post-peak NZ and WA following a very similar trend (WA lagging NZ by ~1wk, hence the higher current rates in WA). Though possibly some initial signs of higher rates in general in WA, maybe since did not experience the high peaks that occurred in other areas
As per the plots this is looking to be a very drawn out down hill process (at least until a new variant comes along and pushes the case rates up again)!

Plot 2: Cases (pm per day) vs Calendar Date

NZ and WA outbreaks started on the same date
Cases ramped up a lot slower in WA than in NZ at the start & near the peak
NZ rate has now merged in with other areas. All except WA and less so ACT, currently very similar trends.
WA now coming down slower than other areas. Again presumably due to having had a significantly lower peak case rate.
Amazing that NZ, QLD, NSW, & Vic are now so similar, especially given that many if not most current cases are from home RAT’s and are dependent on people actually reporting their results (and that each got to current via quite different paths)

mattwnz

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#2904899 21-Apr-2022 16:19

Rikkitic:

Covid-19 is political. It shouldn't be, but some people who care more about their right to infect others than about public health have made it so.

It should have been moved to a dedicated department by now, rather than being government run, so politics were less likely to get involved IMO.. But luckily the MOH weren't the ones controlling it originally, otherwise IMO we wouldn't have eliminated it originally. That was largely down the government listening to some of the other experts such as Sir Skegg and Dr Baker. I recall when NZ went into the first lockdown, elimination was not the goal, it was to flatten the curve to protect the health system. It wasn't until Sir Skegg said that it is possible to eliminate it while in the lockdown, did that become the focus. Then the rest is history.

It is a bit sad that the new normal with living with Covid in NZ, seems to be between 10-20 deaths a day in NZ, and we seem to now accept this as a new normal. Yet we could potentially reduce this by keeping up mask use, rather than phasing them out, including in schools, which appears to have been one of the main ways the virus as spread into NZ households. Everyone I know who has children, has had Covid in their household and it came from schools. I guess it is lucky than NZ doesn't have a large number of multigenerational households, as overseas it can be quite normal for grandparents to live in the same household.

sudo

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#2905125 21-Apr-2022 21:49

mattwnz:

It is a bit sad that the new normal with living with Covid in NZ, seems to be between 10-20 deaths a day in NZ, and we seem to now accept this as a new normal.

How many are over and above the 90-100 deaths in NZ every day?

I personally know of two recent deaths counted in the Covid column ... both very old.

One had tested positive several weeks earlier, recovered, then died after a cardiac arrest (had pre-existing heart issues).

The other went to hospital with late stage cancer, tested positive on admission, and died a week later.

I only know of one death under 60, and he was obese/severely immunocompromised

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