2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2443856 22-Mar-2020 15:38

gchiu: We seriously need to get a coalition war time govt in place. The labour led coalition are making too many mistakes that we are all going to pay heavily for.

What "mistakes" are you referring to? 🤨

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#2443858 22-Mar-2020 15:42

Sideface:

gchiu: We seriously need to get a coalition war time govt in place. The labour led coalition are making too many mistakes that we are all going to pay heavily for.

What "mistakes" are you referring to? 🤨

I would say not enforcing strict quarantine on returnees after the border was closed would be one. We were probably a week late in closing the border too.

GV27

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#2443861 22-Mar-2020 15:50

Geektastic:

I would say not enforcing strict quarantine on returnees after the border was closed would be one. We were probably a week late in closing the border too.

I was exceedingly uncomfortable that some events (e.g. the Christchurch memorials) were going ahead right up until the day before they were meant to happen.

canine

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#2443881 22-Mar-2020 16:15

dogstar001: One thing I've been struggling with is if NZ's health care system is at capacity at 1200 cases & each case lasts 2 weeks. For arguements sake, let's say the average person spends a week in ICU before that recover or die. herd immunity is at 2.88 million NZ's. It will take 2,880,000/1200 =2400 weeks or 52 years for it to work this through our population at a level that doesnt overload our healthcare system. This is absurd!

I am beginning to wonder if the lower the curve thing is a waste of time? I think we may have to go full China on it & stamp it out or just accept the 100,000 deaths. Two very horrible options.

Yes the mitigation,"flatten the curve" mantra may take a huge toll.

Up until recently the ministry of education website proclaimed three bold bullet point recommendations... Wash your hands! Cough into your elbow! Don't be Racist!

That was quietly removed last week, miffed I didn't screenshot. Just one example of puerile attitudes clouding rational decision making among key institutions.

I think the response to date has been lacking... would prefer Prof Michael Baker at the reins. A not insignificant degree of mortality results from the delays we are seeing. Our inexpert experts culpable.

Here is a superb indepth analysis of differing response methods of various nations...

https:// medium.com/@tomaspueyo/ coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Interesting to input NZ specific parameters in the model discussed above... here...

http:// gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.ht

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#2443892 22-Mar-2020 16:31

freitasm: I think the opposite.

I shudder to think what effect Simon Bridges or Paula Bennett would have.

canine

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#2443893 22-Mar-2020 16:31

From analysis link in my earlier post...

- Spain, Germany, France and the US all have more cases than Italy when it ordered the lockdown.
- An additional 16 countries have more cases today than Hubei when it went under lockdown: Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Portugal, Australia, Czechia, Brazil and Qatar have more than Hubei but below 1,000 cases. Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark all have above 1,000 cases.

NZ had a chance... good probability of carnage now. It seems due to NZ style spinelessness the US is not conforming to the Italian curve, it is exceeding it. US now at WHO-15219, Worldmeter-26825 on 22nd march at bottom end of this chart...

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#2443894 22-Mar-2020 16:33

gchiu: We seriously need to get a coalition war time govt in place. The labour led coalition are making too many mistakes that we are all going to pay heavily for.

there are maybe less than 10 leaders out of about 200 in the world who are making the correct decisions for their own people

Xi Jin Peng, Lee Hsien Loong (actually Vivian Balakrishnan also), Taiwan, And a few others.

The rest of the world, a bit useless. When the govt finally want to enforce things, either the citizens don't listen or the head doesn't talk to the tail and there is no coordination. We are seeing the same pattern and nobody is able to change it. It's the human condition?

The other problem was there wasn't a worldwide coordinated attack from the start. everybody was doing their own thing. And up till today, everybody is still doing their own thing.

Globally I don't see a way around it now. Virus has gone viral!

Back to the question - we have Vivian Balakrishnan? We need the Singapore government to help us. we ain't got no war time govt type people here.

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

markhodgeNZ

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#2443896 22-Mar-2020 16:35

neb:
mattwnz:
in the USA they are wanting factories to start manufacturing face masks instead of what they were previously making, so thy must see a benefit to using them.

For politicians, the benefit is that it looks like they're doing something. For the factories, the benefit is that they make money. For a medical staff trained in using N95 masks it could be a life-saver. For everyone else, it's warm fuzzies. So there are different benefits to different groups, but only the medical staff really need them.

They form a less than perfect physical barrier BUT do reduce initial viral load if you are infected.

That can make a big difference in how successful your immune system copes with a disease this virulent.

Kiwi's fear of masks is bonkers.

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#2443899 22-Mar-2020 16:36

canine:

From analysis link in my earlier post...

Spain, Germany, France and the US all have more cases than Italy when it ordered the lockdown.

An additional 16 countries have more cases today than Hubei when it went under lockdown: Japan, Malaysia, Canada, Portugal, Australia, Czechia, Brazil and Qatar have more than Hubei but below 1,000 cases. Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark all have above 1,000 cases.
NZ had a chance... good probability of carnage now. It seems due to NZ style spinelessness the US is not conforming to the Italian curve, it is exceeding it. US now at WHO-15219, Worldmeter-26825 on 22nd march at bottom end of this chart...

I'm ready to meet my maker!

UncleArk

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#2443900 22-Mar-2020 16:37

Interesting watch from Thunderf00t 4 hours ago...

freitasm

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#2443902 22-Mar-2020 16:37

frankv:

freitasm: I think the opposite.

I shudder to think what effect Simon Bridges or Paula Bennett would have.

Exactly.

freitasm

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#2443904 22-Mar-2020 16:40

Release from the Commerce Commission:

COVID-19 - Commerce Commission approach to essential goods and services business cooperation

The Commerce Commission welcomes the Government’s Policy Statement today in relation to maintaining confidence in the market for essential goods and services such as grocery products.

Chair Anna Rawlings said following the Government’s announcement, the Commission wanted to offer reassurance to businesses providing essential goods and services.

“The Commission is aware that businesses are doing everything they can in extremely difficult circumstances to meet New Zealanders' needs. We do not want them to feel constrained by the Commerce Act in working together to do this. The Commission has no intention of taking enforcement action under the Commerce Act against businesses who are cooperating to ensure New Zealanders continue to be supplied with essential goods and services during this unprecedented time. If you need to work with your competitors to share staff or distribution networks or take other measures to ensure security of supply, you are able to do this.”

“However, the Commission will not tolerate unscrupulous businesses using COVID-19 as an excuse for non-essential collusion or anti-competitive behaviour. This includes sharing information on pricing or strategy where it isn’t necessary in the current situation.” Ms Rawlings said.

The Commission will be issuing further guidance for businesses on its website in the coming days.

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#2443907 22-Mar-2020 16:43

dogstar001: I am beginning to wonder if the lower the curve thing is a waste of time? I think we may have to go full China on it & stamp it out or just accept the 100,000 deaths.

China hasn't stamped it out.

Even if we did that, imagine that we're an island of 100% uninfected people in a world awash with covid-19. We would need to close our borders for 18 months or more. Every person entering would need to prove they're not carrying it, or do 2 weeks quarantine. Goodbye tourism industry. Every Kiwi leaving would be at risk of catching it, and 20% would I guess need repatriation for hospitalization. Maybe, hopefully, within 18 months there would be a vaccine or the disease would have petered out. But maybe it would take longer.

Flattening the curve would mean 28k deaths, but that's unavoidable.

GV27

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#2443909 22-Mar-2020 16:44

frankv:
freitasm: I think the opposite.

I shudder to think what effect Simon Bridges or Paula Bennett would have.

Probably exactly the same thing, given that we do not clear out our public service sectors with each incoming Governments (thank God). They would have had the same people advising them and largely working off the same planning that had gone on the background at MoH.

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#2443911 22-Mar-2020 16:47

What's the option for essential workers for childcare?

I did hear that if schools "shut" they may stay open in smaller classes to support those who had to work and couldn't do so from home.

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