2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2454726 5-Apr-2020 07:30

Tinkerisk:

tdgeek:

Am I too positive? Maybe, but Im only looking at the math.

I really don't like to demotivate you. But for total NZ you are still exactly 11 days in behind of Hamburg who had the same count (989) the days before. I know there SHOULD be a difference but unfortunately IT IS NOT. That's why I try to emphasize that fact since a while (why else should you have a look to a single bloody German city in a completely different context than yours?). We're at 2739 infections at the moment, you're at 950 and there are 11 days to go.

I do feel there is a difference. We have been importing cases at international arrivals, and every day, the majority are from that source.It was thousands, now its barely 300 a day. Testing has doubled but its still linear. The main issue is that CT is very very low. 99% of our cases flew here in recent weeks. CT hasn't begun to cause any real growth. If we had no lockdown, it would have. Wit the drying up of our 99% source in cases, and the lockdown snuffling spread, I feel we are well on the right track. Our hospital use has been very minimal. We have been adding cases at 60 to 80 per day. As testing has doubled, the new case trend hasn't changed. In effect that means half of our extra tests gave zero cases. I feel there is little spread right now.

Fred99

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#2454728 5-Apr-2020 07:41

tdgeek:

The main issue is that CT is very very low. 99% of our cases flew here in recent weeks. CT hasn't begun to cause any real growth.

No. I think the figure was that only 1% of cases which had been followed up couldn't be contact traced to either overseas travel or a known local cluster. But 17% had not been explained. So it's highly likely that "untraceable" CT is much higher than 1% of cases. That's why we need lockdown - and for as long as we have untraceable cases cropping up, then we'll have to stay in some form of lockdown - maybe as we come out of lockdown it could be in regions where there'd been no untraced cases for 14 days etc.

kingdragonfly

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#2454732 5-Apr-2020 07:49

There's been some complaints from people who aren't in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin or Nelson trying to leave NZ.

Here's the official Covid NZ site, regarding Domestic Travel, as of Sunday, 5 April, NZ time

https://covid19.govt.nz/help-and-advice/for-travellers/domestic-travel/

Domestic air travel

While we are in Alert Level 4, all domestic travel after midnight Friday 27 March will be permitted only for the transport of people undertaking essential services and the transport of freight. All air transport providers will ensure physical distancing is enforced during travel.

Exemption for foreign nationals connecting to international flights

Foreign nationals in New Zealand can now drive, take private or public land transport, or take domestic flights, in order to connect with commercial, or chartered, international flights to their home country.

Scheduled domestic flights will be available from Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Dunedin and Nelson.

Ferries are not available, and those needing to move between islands should take flights if available.

There are several criteria that foreign nationals must meet in order to drive or take land transport to an international airport, or take a domestic flight within New Zealand while we are under Alert Level 4:

You must hold a ticket for an international flight
If you are taking a domestic flight, you must have a ticket booked for an international flight leaving Auckland or Christchurch scheduled to depart no more than 24 hours from the scheduled departure time of your connecting domestic flight
...You must travel by the most direct route possible.

And you must meet the following public health criteria, and will be questioned before travelling:

Are not diagnosed with COVID-19 (or have been declared as recovered by a medical doctor)
Do not have symptoms consistent with COVID-19
Are not awaiting results for COVID19 testing
Are not a close contact of a suspected/probable/confirmed case of COVID-19, and,
Have not travelled internationally within the last 14 days.

...Any foreign national who does not meet those criteria should continue to shelter in place in their current location.
...

gchiu

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#2454733 5-Apr-2020 07:54

Tinkerisk:

+++ WARNING: Here on the daily hospital frontline several batches of Chinese "FFP-2/N95" masks have been found with small perforations

It's ironic that Alibaba are gifting 1000 free ventilators to New York

Coronavirus latest: China sends over 1,000 ventilators to crisis-hit New York

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3078469/coronavirus-latest-china-sends-over-1000-ventilators-crisis-hit-new-york

But you can still buy fake kn95 masks on their platform.
So, if they're free they are probably okay.

tdgeek

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#2454735 5-Apr-2020 08:01

Fred99:

tdgeek:

The main issue is that CT is very very low. 99% of our cases flew here in recent weeks. CT hasn't begun to cause any real growth.

No. I think the figure was that only 1% of cases which had been followed up couldn't be contact traced to either overseas travel or a known local cluster. But 17% had not been explained. So it's highly likely that "untraceable" CT is much higher than 1% of cases. That's why we need lockdown - and for as long as we have untraceable cases cropping up, then we'll have to stay in some form of lockdown - maybe as we come out of lockdown it could be in regions where there'd been no untraced cases for 14 days etc.

Yes, I recalled that 17% number after posting. They are still undergoing checking, but yes, some of that will be CT. The key point is cropping up. My point to Tinkerisk was that I feel its different here to Hamburg, the example he quoted. Our cases are vastly known imports. We have a few clusters, some of which were avoidable, such as the Hereford mass gathering of people from infected countries, I can only assume that was "ok" then. Marist is a classic example of exponential growth. With all that, I dont see NZ as in the rampant, exponential growth pattern, and our lockdown is thorough, or as thorough as it could be.If we had a few imported cases and the rest was internal growth, then we don't have control, but IMO thats not the case, which is the point I was trying to make to Tinkerisk. One would hope that as imports are almost dried up, our new cases will reduce. Hospitals have been impacted very little in terms of beds used. We are looking good. The challenge now is we see reduced cases, and everybody grumbles when the lockdown is extended

gchiu

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#2454736 5-Apr-2020 08:05

https://technode.com/2020/02/06/e-commerce-firms-cracking-down-on-sellers-of-fake-protective-masks/

I guess AI isn't perfect yet

Technofreak

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#2454741 5-Apr-2020 08:17

If you ask me the government was about two weeks late in restricting foreign tourist coming into the country and were far, far to casual about qurantining returning New Zelanders and tourists. By qurantine I mean either strictly enforced self isolation or actual qurantine like happening to the people off the cruise ship. Passing out leaflets to arriving passengers doesn't cut it in my books.

Too little too late. While their decision to go to level 4 when they did has probably limited the effects to a greater extent than many countries we could have been much further ahead of where we currently are and be looking at returning to a more normalised lifestyle much sooner. The peak of infections would have been significantly reduced making it quicker to achieve their aim of eradication.

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Batman

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#2454743 5-Apr-2020 08:28

Batman:

kingdragonfly: StatNews: White House expected to recommend.

They (ie Trump) already have done so 24hrs ago based on CDC advice

Lombardy now follows the US https://wgno.com/news/health/coronavirus/italys-lombardy-region-makes-people-wear-masks-outside/

Meanwhile we are waiting on advice from WHO.

WHO still exists?

gchiu

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#2454744 5-Apr-2020 08:29

Technofreak:
If you ask me the government was about two weeks late in restricting foreign tourist coming into the country and were far, far to casual about qurantining returning New Zelanders and tourists.

At the end of January at least, Chinese cities were automatically force quarantining people returning to their cities. This was in hotels and you paid for it yourself. Couples had to pay for separate rooms. After two weeks you could return to your home. I had two guests with me that couldn't return to China on this account but gave up waiting and flew back to quarantine.

At the same time NZ issued a travel advisory not to travel on non urgent business to China.

I'd say we were 7 weeks too late. If we had implemented quarantine on our borders at that time we would all still be working.

debo

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#2454745 5-Apr-2020 08:32

Technofreak:

If you ask me the government was about two weeks late in restricting foreign tourist coming into the country and were far, far to casual about qurantining returning New Zelanders and tourists. By qurantine I mean either strictly enforced self isolation or actual qurantine like happening to the people off the cruise ship. Passing out leaflets to arriving passengers doesn't cut it in my books.

Too little too late. While their decision to go to level 4 when they did has probably limited the effects to a greater extent than many countries we could have been much further ahead of where we currently are and be looking at returning to a more normalised lifestyle much sooner. The peak of infections would have been significantly reduced making it quicker to achieve their aim of eradication.

We are far, far to casual about quarantining returning New Zelanders. Nothing has changed. The government is still not taking this thing seriously. They lock down the whole country but simply trust these people to self isolate. Other countries are using apps and GPS to enforce it but over here the government thinks "she'll be right, mate".

Dingbatt

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#2454748 5-Apr-2020 08:42

gchiu: I'd say we were 7 weeks too late. If we had implemented quarantine on our borders at that time we would all still be working.

No not “all of us”. Anyone involved in tourism or international education would still be out of work, but it would have started 7 weeks earlier. Now how much of GDP is that?

I do believe allowing NZers returning now to self isolate instead of quarantining them is akin to mopping up a bath with a sponge at one end while the tap is still running at the other.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

Geektastic

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#2454749 5-Apr-2020 08:44

gchiu:
Technofreak:
If you ask me the government was about two weeks late in restricting foreign tourist coming into the country and were far, far to casual about qurantining returning New Zelanders and tourists.

At the end of January at least, Chinese cities were automatically force quarantining people returning to their cities. This was in hotels and you paid for it yourself. Couples had to pay for separate rooms. After two weeks you could return to your home. I had two guests with me that couldn't return to China on this account but gave up waiting and flew back to quarantine.

At the same time NZ issued a travel advisory not to travel on non urgent business to China.

I'd say we were 7 weeks too late. If we had implemented quarantine on our borders at that time we would all still be working.

All of this economic and social damage, with the exception of international tourism, could have just not happened if we’d been quicker off the mark.

It’s infuriating that the PM is getting acclaim for dealing well with something she could have avoided entirely.

iamaelephant

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#2454750 5-Apr-2020 08:47

Batman:

Lombardy now follows the US https://wgno.com/news/health/coronavirus/italys-lombardy-region-makes-people-wear-masks-outside/

Meanwhile we are waiting on advice from WHO.

WHO still exists?

The WHO no longer has a single shred of credibility. They need to keep their mouths shut and focus their efforts and resources on distributing help where needed. And after this is over we need to take a very serious look at whether WHO should continue to exist at all.

tdgeek

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#2454751 5-Apr-2020 08:47

debo:

Technofreak:

If you ask me the government was about two weeks late in restricting foreign tourist coming into the country and were far, far to casual about qurantining returning New Zelanders and tourists. By qurantine I mean either strictly enforced self isolation or actual qurantine like happening to the people off the cruise ship. Passing out leaflets to arriving passengers doesn't cut it in my books.

Too little too late. While their decision to go to level 4 when they did has probably limited the effects to a greater extent than many countries we could have been much further ahead of where we currently are and be looking at returning to a more normalised lifestyle much sooner. The peak of infections would have been significantly reduced making it quicker to achieve their aim of eradication.

We are far, far to casual about quarantining returning New Zelanders. Nothing has changed. The government is still not taking this thing seriously. They lock down the whole country but simply trust these people to self isolate. Other countries are using apps and GPS to enforce it but over here the government thinks "she'll be right, mate".

No. The rules have strengthened. Yes if you have plans, we trust you, what's wrong wth that? We are trusting the other 4.7 million. If you are happy both the lockdown you must be ok with passengers being part of that. You might say that they are a higher risk. Correct. Do we quarantine all those infected with COVID-19? No. Stay home.

We could have told Kiwis overseas to come home sooner. Either way we still import the same risk. Earlier we didn't have empty hotels so nowhere to quarantine them.

tdgeek

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#2454752 5-Apr-2020 08:50

Geektastic:

All of this economic and social damage, with the exception of international tourism, could have just not happened if we’d been quicker off the mark.

It’s infuriating that the PM is getting acclaim for dealing well with something she could have avoided entirely.

If we did this lockdown earlier, it would have been easy, and not caused any economic disruption? It would have caused the same disruption.

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