2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2475909 3-May-2020 16:59

From a friend in the US:

Right now the big thing on Capitol Hill is to put ligitation protection measures in to guard against lawsuits arising from people getting sick after visiting places that opened -- or opened too soon.

That whole place is just so broken they need to do a reformat and reinstall.

neb

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#2475924 3-May-2020 17:19

Very interesting analysis from Fyodor (of Nmap fame), forwarded with permission:

While it's true that the virus is too new to know for sure how long any immunity lasts, there's also a concerted (well meaning) campaign by the "health establishment" to downplay the future protection afforded by getting the virus. It's like when they insisted for so long that the public shouldn't wear masks. Instead of being honest that saving them for health workers and preventing public hoarding was the main concern, they made a lot of excuses about masks supposedly being ineffective for the public (but essential for medical workers) along with the condescending line that the public could never figure out how to wear them properly anyway. It was only when it became overwhelmingly obvious (especially by comparison with Asian countries wearing masks) that face covering was critical that the health establishment changed their tune and now they strongly promote face covering by the public.

In the same way, the health community has a lot of reason to downplay acquired resistance right now:

=> They are worried about governments implementing "immunity passports" allowing folks who have recovered from the virus to travel/work with fewer restrictions because people might then try to get the virus to gain those extra privileges.

=> They are worried about the people who say "let's just open up and let the virus go through it's course until herd immunity develops". Sowing doubt about immunity helps them counter this.

=> The viral antibodies you develop after getting the virus certainly afford some protection. But the virus is too new to know how long, and what the parameters are. What about people who are mostly asymptomatic? What about people with compromised immune systems? The experts understandably don't want to give people a false sense of security that gets them to go out and get infected. It's considered safer to say that there isn't much evidence of acquired immunity than to say that having the virus almost certainly confers some resistance, but we don't know all the details yet.

=> Until very recently, it was hard to get a good antibody test. Even the UK government famously bought 2 million bogus antibody tests from China. So people might think they have immunity due to a bogus test and then go out and get infected. Better tests are starting to become available now.

These are fairly sound reasons and I'm not trying to knock them. But I think acquired immunity is probably a lot stronger than they are letting on. We just don't know all the details yet. We do know that the antibodies for the similar coronaviruses that cause SARS and MERS last for years. I have also seen studies where researchers found they could not re-infect monkeys who had recently recovered from COVID-19. And of course recovering from Coronavirus shows that your immune system has been trained (at least at the time) to defeat COVID-19.

Once more data is in, we may see a huge about-face on acquired immunity like we did with masks.

Paul1977

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#2475943 3-May-2020 18:25

We had nearly 5 weeks in Level 4, the economy can’t handle going back.

And with many businesses unable to operate under level 3, I don’t think the government will have much choice than to move to level 2 at 11:59pm May 11. At that point many businesses will have been shut down for 7 weeks.

I think they only way this won’t happen is if we started seeing the numbers of unexplained cases increase significantly over the next week.

People went a bit mental this weekend, but hopefully that will settle down and people will get it out of their systems.

I do maintain that level 2 needs tweaking though.

tdgeek

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#2475954 3-May-2020 19:01

Paul1977: We had nearly 5 weeks in Level 4, the economy can’t handle going back.

And with many businesses unable to operate under level 3, I don’t think the government will have much choice than to move to level 2 at 11:59pm May 11. At that point many businesses will have been shut down for 7 weeks.

I think they only way this won’t happen is if we started seeing the numbers of unexplained cases increase significantly over the next week.

People went a bit mental this weekend, but hopefully that will settle down and people will get it out of their systems.

I do maintain that level 2 needs tweaking though.

I dont think it will settle down.

I think it comes down to two camps. 1. We need to shut the virus down. 2. We need to get businesses up and running, forget about the virus, just cross fingers. That's it, one or the other. There is no middle ground.

Yes, there is tweaking for L2, but L3 is a mess. I have no answer. If we do find the virus is well and truly under control, we got lucky, based on a poor 5th week of L4 and a dismal L3 to date. If we have just done really well, and there is a chance of a second wave, well these last 10 days have possibly allowed a second wave. Id like to know the exposure the recent cases have had to the community before they developed symptoms. This is what L4, and most of L3 is supposed to keep in check.The last 10 days haven't.

kingdragonfly

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#2475958 3-May-2020 19:20

Why Is This Virus So Contagious?

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Filmed on 28th April

Grunta47

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#2476026 3-May-2020 20:10

Paul1977: We had nearly 5 weeks in Level 4, the economy can’t handle going back.

And with many businesses unable to operate under level 3, I don’t think the government will have much choice than to move to level 2 at 11:59pm May 11. At that point many businesses will have been shut down for 7 weeks.

The PM stated the government will meet on the 11th to decide on going to level 2. There is no way they will say, yep all good to do tomorrow.
I think level 2 wont happen until Monday 18th May, so that all businesses can ensure they are set to do this correctly, eg, Mitre10, Harvey Norman, the local bar......can get their stores and processes ready for opening again.

Likewise, level 1 after Queens Birthday weekend at the earliest, to help with stopping people going away to their holiday homes, gatherings, etc.

iamaelephant

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#2476059 3-May-2020 21:22

tdgeek:

I think it comes down to two camps. 1. We need to shut the virus down. 2. We need to get businesses up and running, forget about the virus, just cross fingers. That's it, one or the other. There is no middle ground.

Nonsense. The middle ground is in what is required to shut the virus down and what's excessive. There are reasonable arguments to be made that we can fight the virus just as effectively without such a severe shut down.

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frankv

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#2476073 3-May-2020 21:47

iamaelephant:
tdgeek:

I think it comes down to two camps. 1. We need to shut the virus down. 2. We need to get businesses up and running, forget about the virus, just cross fingers. That's it, one or the other. There is no middle ground.

Nonsense. The middle ground is in what is required to shut the virus down and what's excessive. There are reasonable arguments to be made that we can fight the virus just as effectively without such a severe shut down.

I think the argument is that we can fight the virus effectively, now that infections are down to a handful, with less severe social controls.

But I think the 2nd camp is "We want all the goodies of life now!", with perhaps the addendum "because we suffered so much under L4". Driving out to Muriwai is not about getting businesses up and running, and in fact cheerfully puts that at risk.

MadEngineer

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#2476082 3-May-2020 23:20

freitasm:

Removed a few replies about conspiracy theories. Fact people, facts.

Dang. I thought what I posted (a possible patient zero) would have been interesting to discuss

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

ezbee

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#2476083 3-May-2020 23:22

At the moment we have Apple and Friut Picking almost out of the way.
Vegetable, Produce, Dairy , and Meat processing.
A great podcast on the apple harvesting here.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/01/1150030/an-apple-harvest-no-one-will-ever-forget

Some other countries have significant CV19 in Meat processing so we are lucky, so far- so it is a risky business-
USA
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/meat-plant-workers-us-coronavirus-war
Ireland
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/covid-19-outbreaks-at-irish-meat-plants-raise-fears-over-worker-safety
Australia
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8279691/COVID-19-cluster-breaks-meat-processing-warehouse-Victoria.html

Log exports starting up, plus several other industries.
So we do have significant export income $$$ for the country , as well as our own food security.

The high contact high touch , mass market part of the economy risks are higher and different.
Stuff where there is not inherent logging of people, crowds passing in the street, laneways, enclosed malls.
General partying , weddings , bars we know how fast and persistent CV19 spread can be.

This is what is greying the hair of our leaders and their experts.
Especially when it seems a proportion of the population has great difficulty with self control.
Our institutions still letting us down, what happens when accountants have the final say ?.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/03/1156009/waitakere-57-staff-stood-down-amid-safety-claims

In Asia this was managed with a very major loss of privacy.
In Korea , a democracy, detailed people tracking when facing gates of hell.
Probably not a path for us, something much watered down and less effective.
Then masks , to substitute for 2 Meter where only 1 or 1/2 a meter is practical, and enclosed spaces.
Even if its only 50% effective it tips odds, also psychology reminder life is not normal.
We are stuck here, we have no MFG of scale.
What we can import has to go to health and essential industries.

With CV19 the dice is loaded.
There is no tight feedback loop to support experimental risky moves.
You will be last to know you have been Pwn3d , well 1 - 2 weeks too late.

Winter is coming, CV19 just got a level up....

Maybe we have actually won, but we don't know 'quite' yet that there is no silent transmission.

I do not envy those in government voting to go or stay or go earlier.

mattwnz

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#2476085 4-May-2020 00:05

Paul1977: We had nearly 5 weeks in Level 4, the economy can’t handle going back.

And with many businesses unable to operate under level 3, I don’t think the government will have much choice than to move to level 2 at 11:59pm May 11. At that point many businesses will have been shut down for 7 weeks.

I think they only way this won’t happen is if we started seeing the numbers of unexplained cases increase significantly over the next week.

People went a bit mental this weekend, but hopefully that will settle down and people will get it out of their systems.

I do maintain that level 2 needs tweaking though.

The thing is that it may need 2 weeks to see what the infection rate has been under level 3, especially as some places only opened mid week last week. Any decision has to be 100% based on facts.

I think it depends on the type of business as to whether they can safely open under a level 2. Many businesses are already open, mainly it is retail outlets or ones that have to publicly interact with the public that aren't, but many are working about alternative ways to do it. But many are also able to operate perfectly well from people working at home. Infact I saw someone mention that the business they work in has decided to save money in the future on city office space, and now have all staff working from home. It will apparently save them a significant amount of money.

But if you saw some of the vids tonight on the news of people in workplaces not social distancing, I can see us heading back into level 4. For example some builders were working right next to one another, and some even sharing a smoke, it is clear that people are just no following the rules. These people risk costing teh countrey billions of dollars, in what we have already lost, and the billions we will lose if we go back into level 4. The DG did also warn to day that based on what he had seen, we should't treat it as a given that we will be moving into a level 2 soon, which I think is a signal that they are not comfortable about this. .

If our rules and policing is proving not to be strict enough, then we wither have to police it harder, with stricter penalties. If people are not going to follow level 3 rules, I hate to see how they will act under level 2.

Some businesses maybe too risky to reopen, unless we can prove we have eliminated it, which I am guessing is all active cases recovered or in a quarantine area, and no new cases for a period of time. I understand WHO will normally certify if a country has reached elimination status.

mattwnz

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#2476091 4-May-2020 01:35

A few of us were previously discussing the lack of data that is being provided each day by the MOH with the new case numbers.

I saw on TV One New tonight, Professor Michael Baker also calling for this information, and it shouldn't be too hard to provide to the public, as it is already there. He said he gets asked questions that he can't answer, because that information isn't available on their website.

I also see in this article, he doesn't believe NZ has actually 'eliminated' it from the shores yet, as per this article on the day we went into level 3. He obviously know definition of elimination being an epidemiologist, and has worked with the Ministry of Health's COVID-19 Technical Advisory Group.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329102

tdgeek

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#2476095 4-May-2020 07:12

iamaelephant:

tdgeek:

I think it comes down to two camps. 1. We need to shut the virus down. 2. We need to get businesses up and running, forget about the virus, just cross fingers. That's it, one or the other. There is no middle ground.

Nonsense. The middle ground is in what is required to shut the virus down and what's excessive. There are reasonable arguments to be made that we can fight the virus just as effectively without such a severe shut down.

Its nonsense as it doesnt suit you? Maybe everyone here can say all posts that don't agree are nonsense. Or, maybe, we can discuss our opinions?

We can fight the virus, or we can ignore it and deal with it as it regains traction. If its acceptable to have Mitre10, Farmers etc full of people, thats ok, if a cluster hit there, we can temporary close that branch and every other store and mall the many shoppers went to. Thats why Italy etc occurred.Then we go back to L4. Thats the potential scenario.

Im all for opening up as much as possible, I can easily see Mitre10's etc operating as the supermarkets did. They have bigger aisles, it would be easier. But you need to convince the huge numbers of citizens that are treating L3 as if it was L0 to play ball, THAT is the problem.

tdgeek

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#2476099 4-May-2020 07:18

mattwnz:

A few of us were previously discussing the lack of data that is being provided each day by the MOH with the new case numbers.

I saw on TV One New tonight, Professor Michael Baker also calling for this information, and it shouldn't be too hard to provide to the public, as it is already there. He said he gets asked questions that he can't answer, because that information isn't available on their website.

I also see in this article, he doesn't believe NZ has actually 'eliminated' it from the shores yet, as per this article on the day we went into level 3. He obviously know definition of elimination being an epidemiologist, and has worked with the Ministry of Health's COVID-19 Technical Advisory Group.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12329102

Yep. The issue is we get two cases from a cluster or household. That means nothing. We want to know that these people have been hard at it self isolating, or they have been shopping, beach, illicitly caught up with mates. What town and suburb. Option 1 is safe, sweet, option 2 is danger. Makes it much easier to justofy what they say on May 11.

frankv

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#2476102 4-May-2020 07:54

tdgeek:
The issue is we get two cases from a cluster or household. That means nothing. We want to know that these people have been hard at it self isolating, or they have been shopping, beach, illicitly caught up with mates. What town and suburb. Option 1 is safe, sweet, option 2 is danger. Makes it much easier to justofy what they say on May 11.

Actually, option 1 is also danger, in that "How did they catch it if they were properly self-isolating?"

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