2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2498491 4-Jun-2020 19:27

mattwnz:

I can't understand why we are allowing film crews in, but not these other people who need to return. They would all be quarantined for a minimum of 14 days to reduce the risk. It doesn't make any sense.

Money (relatively high returns for relatively low/manageable risk).

bluey

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#2498538 4-Jun-2020 21:00

Rikkitic:

empacher48:

As a short haul pilot who will be flying across the Tasman one day, I would like to know if you think it is reasonable to have a COVID test 5 or 6 days a week?

I wouldn't even have the result of the first test, before the second one was conducted. Even with a 24 hour turn around in the result, I'll be perpetually having tests without results (I'd hate to think what the back of my throat will look like after having these tests every day!).

When I work, my interactions with actual people outside of the flight deck would be less than 5, and 4 of them would be kiwis here in NZ. When we operate across the Tasman, we don't even get off the plane!

If you think I come home after my 12 hour day, which started at 3am, that I'm going to go immediately out to socialise after work, there is a slightly unrealistic idea of what we do when we finish work. (it is usually end up at home and try to get 8 hours sleep before we do the same thing again). Even if I'm at home here in NZ between shifts, I don't usually see my family at all, because... sleep.

I would agree with random testing of NZ based crew, or even targeted testing if you are spending time in high risk areas. But testing us every time we go to work, even if I'm only going to the Cook Islands and back, I would draw the line. We already get treated like terrorists at AVSEC, or drug mules by customs.

If you are sleep-deprived and working 12-hour shifts as a commercial pilot, I think that would bother me more than your Covid19 tests.

Where does he say he is sleep deprived? I think he is saying that it is important to get 8 hrs sleep and is prepared to miss other thing to ensure he gets it.

mattwnz

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#2498608 5-Jun-2020 00:06

Fred99:

mattwnz:

I can't understand why we are allowing film crews in, but not these other people who need to return. They would all be quarantined for a minimum of 14 days to reduce the risk. It doesn't make any sense.

Money (relatively high returns for relatively low/manageable risk).

I would think that would be something that politicians from other parties would be more vocal about. But they seem to be more interested in this trans Tasman bubble thing which according to the deputy prime minister, where the date to open it is apparently in the hands of Australia. Even though the PM says September is more realistic, the Deputy PM says now, or by 1st July. But that isn't backed up by medical experts recommendations from what I can see, and they should be the ones making the decision when it occurs.

tdgeek

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#2498638 5-Jun-2020 07:13

mattwnz:

Fred99:

Money (relatively high returns for relatively low/manageable risk).

I would think that would be something that politicians from other parties would be more vocal about. But they seem to be more interested in this trans Tasman bubble thing which according to the deputy prime minister, where the date to open it is apparently in the hands of Australia. Even though the PM says September is more realistic, the Deputy PM says now, or by 1st July. But that isn't backed up by medical experts recommendations from what I can see, and they should be the ones making the decision when it occurs.

Thats because all politicians see that the need now is the economy.

As for the bubble, the news noise on it is overrated. Its between NZ and Australia, Im not seeing Australia banging on about it. The want it, we want it, WHEN its ready. Winston is doing what he does best, making the noises pre election as if he's the main act. Hopefully, his new role will be as a spectator come September 20th

mattwnz

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#2499123 5-Jun-2020 15:00

tdgeek:

Thats because all politicians see that the need now is the economy.

As for the bubble, the news noise on it is overrated. Its between NZ and Australia, Im not seeing Australia banging on about it. The want it, we want it, WHEN its ready. Winston is doing what he does best, making the noises pre election as if he's the main act. Hopefully, his new role will be as a spectator come September 20th

So Labour isn't? I think they are just as keen, but realize that Australia isn't ready based on all the cases they are still getting, and that it will likely be less / no risk when Australia have eliminated it which would hopefully be closer to the end of the year.

Moneywise, it means far less to Australia, than it does to NZ. Australia are wanting a travel bubble between some other countries like Japan, so if we do enter a bubble with Oz, we will likely also be joining the bubble with those other countries in the near future, probably well before any of these other countries have eliminated it. I saw someone on the news today saying a travel bubble will always be a risk, and there is a way of managing he risk. Well that didn't work previously, as that is how it got in. Also their statement isn't true IMO and there also isn't a risk if both countries have reached elimination of the virus, as it will then be no different to NZs traveling freely between the North and South Island. At the moment, with spread still occurring in Australia, quarantine is the only full proof way to make sure the virus doesn't get in. Unless Australia move to an elimination strategy, which is possible closer to September, but currently their policy is only suppression, so we aren't even on the same page as Australia, especially as they are still getting new cases, and it has only been a week since the last Community transmission cases was detected there. In NZ I understand it has been months and all signs so far is that currently it is eliminated from NZ. I suspect new cases will be imported, or maybe the very odd case linked to a cluster. I wonder if there is a reason why there is very little coverage in NZ media, on the state of the virus is Oz.

I think in order to help our Pacific neighbours, we should be looking at opening a travel bubble sooner with these pacific islands that rely on tourism from NZ. Haven't seen hardly any mention of this. Maybe it is because moneywise it makes little difference to NZ, but it likely makes a huge difference to the islands. Maybe that is why there hasn't been a big thing in Australia about the bubble, because moneywise it isn't very significant for them, and the risk/reward isn't great. It is somewhat ironic that it comes down to Australia to make the rules on when the bubble opens considering NZ has likely eliminated it, and Oz may not for a very long time, so the risk is greater for NZ in the virus getting back in.

tdgeek

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#2499158 5-Jun-2020 15:33

Labour is keen, Aus is keen, Ive implied that. PM says looking at Sept, Aus PM no date I'm aware but he's keen.

Everyone wants it, for the economy, but some want it AFTER we vare happy with the virus sutuation, some want it now, irregardless of the virus. Thats why the two PM's are keen but cautious on when. Thats the only option to take

frankv

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#2499161 5-Jun-2020 15:42

tdgeek:

Labour is keen, Aus is keen, Ive implied that. PM says looking at Sept, Aus PM no date I'm aware but he's keen.

Actually, from what I saw, the Aus PM said words to the effect of "We'd like it, when it's safe". Which is a no-brainer... obviously it's something that everyone wants. But also obviously, no-one wants to start spreading c-19 again.

So, somehow Aus needs to proof that NZ is safe, and NZ needs proof that Aus (or maybe Queensland or NSW or Victoria) is safe. Presumably there's busy little beavers at the MoH working on exactly how we're going to prove to Aus that we're safe, and another bunch looking at how we can be sure that Aus (or part of it) is safe.

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

tdgeek

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#2499203 5-Jun-2020 17:40

frankv:

tdgeek:

Labour is keen, Aus is keen, Ive implied that. PM says looking at Sept, Aus PM no date I'm aware but he's keen.

Actually, from what I saw, the Aus PM said words to the effect of "We'd like it, when it's safe". Which is a no-brainer... obviously it's something that everyone wants. But also obviously, no-one wants to start spreading c-19 again.

So, somehow Aus needs to proof that NZ is safe, and NZ needs proof that Aus (or maybe Queensland or NSW or Victoria) is safe. Presumably there's busy little beavers at the MoH working on exactly how we're going to prove to Aus that we're safe, and another bunch looking at how we can be sure that Aus (or part of it) is safe.

Exactly. "We'd like it, when it's safe"is what I see from both PM's. Maybe Scott Morrison is keen but not as keen as we are, but both want it. The key thing is both want it when it's safe.

kingdragonfly

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#2499212 5-Jun-2020 18:13

The Weekly With Charlie Pickering is a weekly TV comedy /news show out of Australia.

From Australian comedians, a lot of talk about the corona virus

There's a segment about nut jobs 5G conspiracy. Did you know 1 in 8 Australians believe 5G caused the corona virus?

A bit about the infected Boris Johnson advisor breaking quarantine rules to drive cross country.

Unrelated, a lot of talk about the systemic racism in Australia.

You can search the Internet for "The.Weekly.With.Charlie.Pickering.S06E06"

DS248

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#2499356 6-Jun-2020 01:49

With increasing pressure for a travel bubble between NZ and Australia, I thought it time to update my tables comparing the current situation in NZ and Australian states and territories. In general the time since last local case is in terms of 'Notification date' though some for AU states/territories it may be press release date? For NZ the 21 days is ex. 'Notification date' in the individual case data and the 14 days, based on press release date.

As per the tables, Victoria aside, most Australian states are at a fairly similar stage to NZ. NSW, WA and QLD perhaps a week or so behind, with Tasmania very similar to NZ (last local case 3 weeks ago). SA, NT and ACT have effectively eliminated COVID-19 from their territories (6+ to 8+ weeks since last local case).

Despite elimination, SA and ACT are still maintaining more stringent restrictions than NZ, significantly so in some aspects. Especially gathering sizes. Similar significant restrictions apply in most other states. At least in most respects, the AU 'Stage 2' is more restrictive than our now watered down 'Level 2'. And I suspect the restrictions may be better enforced in many areas. Saw little evidence of social distancing in our local shopping area when I went out for lunch today (first time in a restaurant in ~3 months!). Certainly nothing remotely like 4 m2, or even 2 m2 per person at the restaurant - plus served by at least two waiters, ...

Subject to no further flare-ups, a travel bubble sometime in July with all but Victoria does not seem unreasonable. The 'subject to' is of course the big issue. And that applies to NZ as much as AU - possibly more so given the rate at which the guard seems to have been let down here and the much larger gatherings allowed.

One other difference is that many AU states are currently performing significantly more tests per capita than NZ.

rugrat

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#2499358 6-Jun-2020 01:57

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/trans-tasman-bubble-plan-from-expert-group-given-to-prime-ministers/ar-BB152Sg7

Found this bit a bit disturbing

The details are still under wraps, but the report prepared over the past three weeks is understood to align with new international guidelines for masks and temperature screening.

One of its co-chairs, Scott Tasker of Auckland Airport, said the plan aligned with international guidance and would do away with the need for 14-day quarantine"

So just wear masks on plane, temperature screening and no need to quarantine for 14 days, I didn't realize someone would get a temperature the moment they are infected!

If it's because no cases for many days in both countries fair enough, otherwise what are they smoking.

ben28

190 posts

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#2499361 6-Jun-2020 07:04

rugrat:

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/trans-tasman-bubble-plan-from-expert-group-given-to-prime-ministers/ar-BB152Sg7

Found this bit a bit disturbing

"

The details are still under wraps, but the report prepared over the past three weeks is understood to align with new international guidelines for masks and temperature screening.

One of its co-chairs, Scott Tasker of Auckland Airport, said the plan aligned with international guidance and would do away with the need for 14-day quarantine"

So just wear masks on plane, temperature screening and no need to quarantine for 14 days, I didn't realize someone would get a temperature the moment they are infected!

If it's because no cases for many days in both countries fair enough, otherwise what are they smoking.

:

If what he said is true, then the whole recommendation needs to be rejected and be told to go away and try better. Even to a simple layman like me, this recommendation introduces too much risk. A person could catch covid at the departure airport and they wont have any symptoms for a number of days.

The source country would need to be virus free in order for this to work. I dont expect Australia to be at that level for months if ever

tdgeek

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#2499373 6-Jun-2020 08:09

Scott Tasker of Auckland Airport

Hardly an unbiased viewpoint.

zenourn

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#2499382 6-Jun-2020 09:00

Lancet has issued a retraction of the flawed hydroxychloroquine paper:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext

Looks like the data was largely faked, see this post by Peter Ellis (a kiwi statistician now working in Australia):

http://freerangestats.info/blog/2020/05/30/implausible-health-data-firm

I'm skeptical around hydroxychloroquine (in the sense of I don't know whether it has any benefit in COVID-19), but we need real randomised treatment studies to answer this. Unfortunately this paper ended several of those studies under way.

This is an example of how peer review often doesn't mean much. There is increasing push for data and code to be released for every study.

Batman

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#2499410 6-Jun-2020 10:22

zenourn:
Lancet has issued a retraction of the flawed hydroxychloroquine paper:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext

Looks like the data was largely faked, see this post by Peter Ellis (a kiwi statistician now working in Australia):

http://freerangestats.info/blog/2020/05/30/implausible-health-data-firm

I'm skeptical around hydroxychloroquine (in the sense of I don't know whether it has any benefit in COVID-19), but we need real randomised treatment studies to answer this. Unfortunately this paper ended several of those studies under way.

This is an example of how peer review often doesn't mean much. There is increasing push for data and code to be released for every study.

I bet this is not the only fake study out there eh. This is going to give a lot of fuel to Trump supporters and science skeptics.

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