2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2543529 18-Aug-2020 11:12

GV27:

Nothing should surprise us anymore with this year at this point. I'm still bracing for the potential 'other' positives once the testing is made more available to asymptomatic people and focus is less on people who are actively crook.

Given the level of testing (nearly 100K tests over the past week), we are gonna be running out of people to test soon...

@20K tests a day you would test over 10% of the population a month.......

vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2543541 18-Aug-2020 11:22

mattwnz:

As things have played out today, it appears that the specified testing around the border staff and facilities wasn't in place on June 23rd, and was only in the process of being rolled out. More info at https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122473901/coronavirus-ashley-bloomfield-blames-miscommunication-for-quarantine-testing-confusion and https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/chris-hipkins-admits-tracking-system-for-border-workers-wasn-t-in-place-before-testing-strategy-announcement.html

Potentially lot of holes for the virus to find a route into the community during that time, and it appears it took advantage of a hole late August. Very important we find the source of the hole for our elimination strategy to continue, and to prevent a repeat of the virus entering in the same way again. At least they are being tested now, and luckily this outbreak looks like it is somewhat contained based on the cases so far. But it can take weeks to know for sure, and hopefully we don't get random cases popping up in other parts of NZ, even if linked to the cluster, otherwise we could have a very long tail in level 2 .

unless you are going to test the border staff daily and make them go into isolation until they do come back negative then testing them weekly or so will be a waste of time. You can be tested Monday and show a negative test and by Thursday you could be positive and walking around because your Monday test showed a negative result. You may catch a few but it wont catch everyone . Maybe more for peoples peace of mind.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Dingbatt

6754 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2543542 18-Aug-2020 11:23

Is there any antibody/T-Cell testing going on in NZ? The official government website mentions antibody tests but that the main focus is on the viral tests. Justified, because viral is now, antibody is after the fact.

Once this latest panic is over I’d like to see some community testing for antibodies/T-Cells. Is it the sort of thing that can be picked up from sewerage samples?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

debo

307 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2543555 18-Aug-2020 11:51

Dingbatt:

Is there any antibody/T-Cell testing going on in NZ? The official government website mentions antibody tests but that the main focus is on the viral tests. Justified, because viral is now, antibody is after the fact.

Once this latest panic is over I’d like to see some community testing for antibodies/T-Cells. Is it the sort of thing that can be picked up from sewerage samples?

It would make sense to do blood tests on the border staff now. Either t cells or antibodies but I understand t cell testing is more accurate. This will help find patient zero. I fell it is a bit late to be using PCR testing to locate patient zero because by now they would be fully recovered and would have a negative test.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2543597 18-Aug-2020 11:54

Dingbatt:

Is there any antibody/T-Cell testing going on in NZ? The official government website mentions antibody tests but that the main focus is on the viral tests. Justified, because viral is now, antibody is after the fact.

Once this latest panic is over I’d like to see some community testing for antibodies/T-Cells. Is it the sort of thing that can be picked up from sewerage samples?

Short answer: Yes

Otago Uni were doing a study for the Southern DHB (basically centered on Queenstown) to follow up the positives discovered by PCR and determine of any of their close contacts went un diagnosed.... I haven't heard any outcome yet..

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/417821/new-covid-19-antibody-blood-test-to-check-for-undetected-cases-in-southern-region

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2543600 18-Aug-2020 11:59

Dingbatt:

Is there any antibody/T-Cell testing going on in NZ? The official government website mentions antibody tests but that the main focus is on the viral tests. Justified, because viral is now, antibody is after the fact.

Once this latest panic is over I’d like to see some community testing for antibodies/T-Cells. Is it the sort of thing that can be picked up from sewerage samples?

I believe the sewage testing is looking for viral RNA sequences - PCR rather than antibodies. Then because people in quarantine are in the largest centres along with the 80 or so known positive "active" cases, the sewage in the places you'd probably most want to test (for unknown CT) is going to be positive anyway.

Antibodies can be at such low levels that the "quick" tests wont detect them - or if the sensitivity is increased then too many false positives. Antigen testing picks up infection at the early stage - when the swab/PCR test is more accurate.

At the level of known infection, population screening for antibodies is going to be pretty useless. For example if there's a false positive rate of 0.1% (which would be pretty good) our known infections are 0.032%, so any significant variation from that would be noise. More useful to assess progress toward "herd immunity" in countries where several % of the population is known to have been infected.

Some quick and or easy test to assess T cell response would be great, not just to find out how many may have been exposed and may be immune - but to find out or quantify if there really is some "natural" immunity out there as some are suggesting - possibly through cross-immunity due to past infection with a similar virus.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2543601 18-Aug-2020 11:59

vexxxboy:

mattwnz:

As things have played out today, it appears that the specified testing around the border staff and facilities wasn't in place on June 23rd, and was only in the process of being rolled out. More info at https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122473901/coronavirus-ashley-bloomfield-blames-miscommunication-for-quarantine-testing-confusion and https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/chris-hipkins-admits-tracking-system-for-border-workers-wasn-t-in-place-before-testing-strategy-announcement.html

Potentially lot of holes for the virus to find a route into the community during that time, and it appears it took advantage of a hole late August. Very important we find the source of the hole for our elimination strategy to continue, and to prevent a repeat of the virus entering in the same way again. At least they are being tested now, and luckily this outbreak looks like it is somewhat contained based on the cases so far. But it can take weeks to know for sure, and hopefully we don't get random cases popping up in other parts of NZ, even if linked to the cluster, otherwise we could have a very long tail in level 2 .

unless you are going to test the border staff daily and make them go into isolation until they do come back negative then testing them weekly or so will be a waste of time. You can be tested Monday and show a negative test and by Thursday you could be positive and walking around because your Monday test showed a negative result. You may catch a few but it wont catch everyone . Maybe more for peoples peace of mind.

"waste of time"

Not really.

Another way to look at that is that , if you test weekly at least you are not further behind and looking at progressively wider spread.
The wider the spread the more difficult it would be to combat , in line with geometric expansion of infection.
Imagine where we would have been if the present earliest case had not got tested for another 1-2 weeks, or not at all.

Its a balance of practicality , and consequences.
Anything is better than the almost 2/3 not being tested at all for 4 months quite frankly.
I did see a webcast with UK virologist/Modeler that suggested 1 week is about minimum he would like, and our leading experts seem to have been suggesting weekly.

Perfection is not the goal its just damping risk to where you can keep on top of inevitable outbreaks, that they can be minor such that there is confidence to quickly leave level 3.

Many countries have spent far longer in total under restriction as they allowed a great depth and breadth of infection.

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vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2543605 18-Aug-2020 12:09

ezbee:

"waste of time"

Not really.

Another way to look at that is that , if you test weekly at least you are not further behind and looking at progressively wider spread.
The wider the spread the more difficult it would be to combat , in line with geometric expansion of infection.
Imagine where we would have been if the present earliest case had not got tested for another 1-2 weeks, or not at all.

Its a balance of practicality , and consequences.
Anything is better than the almost 2/3 not being tested at all for 4 months quite frankly.
I did see a webcast with UK virologist/Modeler that suggested 1 week is about minimum he would like, and our leading experts seem to have been suggesting weekly.

Perfection is not the goal its just damping risk to where you can keep on top of inevitable outbreaks, that they can be minor such that there is confidence to quickly leave level 3.

Many countries have spent far longer in total under restriction as they allowed a great depth and breadth of infection.

if one person gets through and starts a cluster then it was a waste of time , what im saying is that they could have been testing the whole time and this still could have happened.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2543660 18-Aug-2020 13:21

According to AB, and pending release of the final report in a couple of days, it appears that the cases at Americold Akl and Melbourne aren't linked.

DS248

1691 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2543684 18-Aug-2020 13:41

Now one separate case that is ex quarantine facilities

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/423804/one-auckland-covid-19-case-not-linked-to-cluster

DS248

1691 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2543690 18-Aug-2020 13:47

Re previous post - looks like genome sequencing and matching will (& should) become an important component of our virus suppression management.

Also highlights the importance of testing frontline border staff.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2543692 18-Aug-2020 13:50

DS248:

Now one separate case that is ex quarantine facilities

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/423804/one-auckland-covid-19-case-not-linked-to-cluster

"The sequencing shows a returnee from the US with the same sequence as the maintenance worker was at the Rydges Hotel from 28-31 July before they returned a day three positive test and were immediately moved to the Jet Park quarantine facility on 31 July."

"The person [maintenance worker] returned a positive result for Covid-19 on Sunday 16 August with symptom onset on 11 August."

So we are potentially looking at 1 or maybe 2 links from the returnee to this worker... but hopefully the blanket testing will find if there was any further spread off this chain....

PolicyGuy

1726 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2543694 18-Aug-2020 13:57

wellygary:

DS248:

Now one separate case that is ex quarantine facilities

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/423804/one-auckland-covid-19-case-not-linked-to-cluster

"The sequencing shows a returnee from the US with the same sequence as the maintenance worker was at the Rydges Hotel from 28-31 July before they returned a day three positive test and were immediately moved to the Jet Park quarantine facility on 31 July."

"The person [maintenance worker] returned a positive result for Covid-19 on Sunday 16 August with symptom onset on 11 August."

So we are potentially looking at 1 or maybe 2 links from the returnee to this worker... but hopefully the blanket testing will find if there was any further spread off this chain....

Dr Bloomfield said that all the maintenance worker's home and work close contacts have already tested negative

Zepanda66

533 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2543695 18-Aug-2020 13:57

Will be interesting to see the final report on the Americold facility. I'm guessing we wont know till tomorrow what the outcome of that investigation is. What happens if surface to human transmission is confirmed? That changes everything.

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

kingdragonfly

11190 posts

Uber Geek

Subscriber

#2543696 18-Aug-2020 14:02

New York Times: Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Rolls to a Close as Virus Tracking Remains Complex

The annual rally in Sturgis, S.D., drew hundreds of thousands of people. It will be challenging to track any coronavirus outbreak as bikers return to their home states.

And just like that, the roar of the motorcycles was gone.

Ten days after Sturgis, S.D., drew hundreds of thousands of bikers from all over the country to its signature motorcycle rally despite concerns about the coronavirus pandemic, the parties ended and most of the crowds headed home on Sunday.

Uncertain still was what effect, if any, the event will have on the spread of the virus. Because of the time it can take for symptoms to appear and the way coronavirus cases are tracked in the United States, officials may never know whether the annual rally was a place where the virus was widely passed along.

There were no immediate signs that the rally had led to a significant uptick: The county that includes Sturgis has reported 104 coronavirus cases during the pandemic, 33 of them since the start of August. On Monday, state health officials said they knew of one case of the virus in someone who had attended the motorcycle rally, according to The Rapid City Journal. And Mark Schulte, president of Monument Health Sturgis Hospital, confirmed that some people in Sturgis for the rally had tested positive for the virus, though he would not say how many.

But if a flurry of new cases were to emerge — days from now or even longer — they would likely be reported by attendees back in their hometowns, and would not necessarily ever be tied to the rally.

It is a challenge that public health officials have faced repeatedly as they try to understand how the coronavirus is making its way through the country: When people gather for a large event and then return to states with different health departments, it is difficult to be sure whether the event was part of an outbreak.

The issue has stymied certainty about how the virus’s spread has been affected by events like a rally for President Trump in Oklahoma, protests in Minneapolis after the death of George Floyd, holiday weekend visits to the Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri, Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans and spring break trips to Florida.

The rally in Sturgis, one of the biggest regional events to proceed amid the pandemic, drew attention from all over. More than 350,000 vehicles had flocked into the small town during the first week of the event, according to the South Dakota Department of Transportation.
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