2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2543768 18-Aug-2020 15:20

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12357328

PM interview on why border workers not tested when we were told they would be

DS248

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#2543772 18-Aug-2020 15:23

Scott3:

Hemi88:

with how fast this thing spreads I think we would of known by now

There appears to be quite some variability in the level of contagiousness.

We could have got lucky several times.

The odds of picking up the first such case days after rolling out widespread testing seem low.

Yes it does seen highly variable. Several Australian states have dodged the bullet, especially with interstate (ex Vic) cases that have lied, skipped self quarantine early, or otherwise; QLD at least twice - the recent three young women (two covid positive), and the 'essential' farm worker ex Victoria (covid positive) from a couple of months ago who was not required to isolate! A number of other cases also.

kingdragonfly

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#2543780 18-Aug-2020 15:30

Since it looks like this thread is going over a thousand posts...

I'd be interested in seeing a bar graph with the number of posts per day in this thread.

It'd be interesting if the Trump thread was used as comparison, since it's also over 1,000 pages.

I'd do it myself, but I don't know how.

It could be an interesting heat trending map.

Scott3

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#2543803 18-Aug-2020 16:03

Fred99:

I don't think that's got anything to do with functional variation in the virus since the D614G mutation - which is everywhere. It's got everything to do with human behaviour, where people went, what they did etc.

DS248:

Yes it does seen highly variable. Several Australian states have dodged the bullet, especially with interstate (ex Vic) cases that have lied, skipped self quarantine early, or otherwise; QLD at least twice - the recent three young women (two covid positive), and the 'essential' farm worker ex Victoria (covid positive) from a couple of months ago who was not required to isolate! A number of other cases also.

We know that timing is very important to contagiousness, with the 48 - 72 hour period prior to the onset of symptoms being partially key (carriers who are unaware they are sick are less likely to take mitigating action). It appears that the level of contagious drops away even while the host is still sick.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120985003/coronavirus-how-long-are-you-infectious-when-you-have-covid19

As fred 99 said, activities carried out by the host are likely to have a big impact. It is quite possible a hotel maintenance worker doesn't have a lot of interaction with other staff in the workplace. Perhaps they show up to work, log onto their computer in the equipment room, and work through an automatically populating maintenance list & repair task populated by front desk staff via their computers. If traveling via the service elevator (likely sparely used at the moment as there is no daily room service in managed isolation), it is quite possible they rarely see their colleagues. The workers private life is pure speculation, but could range from minimal to a lot of physical contact.

I don't have a firm scientific basis, but I speculate that some hosts also shed a lot more virus than others. It was mentioned that this is what the term "super spreader" relates to, rather than hosts who frequent area's with a lot of people. No idea what drives this, but we also know some people get hit really hard by covid-19, and others don't even notice they have it... so symptoms are highly variable too.

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#2543814 18-Aug-2020 16:26

apparently we could have a level 1.5 https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122474741/coronavirus-alert-level-15-masks-social-distancing-among-considerations-bloomfield-suggests

Fred99

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#2543818 18-Aug-2020 16:38

Batman:

apparently we could have a level 1.5 https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122474741/coronavirus-alert-level-15-masks-social-distancing-among-considerations-bloomfield-suggests

People got very complacent with level 1 IMO. Shops stopped having hand-sanitiser freely available - despite it being easy to buy, hardly anybody was using the Covid app, hand-shaking, hugging was pretty well back to normal levels.

I wonder if they have enough detail on contact between people in the present cluster to come to any useful conclusions - when they had contact, then what was it? Handshake, a hug, sharing a slice of pizza - or just being in the same room for a while?

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#2543824 18-Aug-2020 16:54

I am surprised still at the surfaces people touch needlessly with their hands like......
Push doors
Escalator hand rail
Traffic signal crossing buttons
Browsing and handling items in shops (not buying)
Elevator buttons.

I had to go upstairs in a building that had an escalator. In front of was about ten folk on the escalator and at least 6 had their uncovered hand on the rubber escalator band. I have to steady my self on these things and I use my covered elbow to do so. Preferably I would avoid places like this.

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mattwnz

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#2543825 18-Aug-2020 16:55

Scott3:

I don't have a firm scientific basis, but I speculate that some hosts also shed a lot more virus than others. It was mentioned that this is what the term "super spreader" relates to, rather than hosts who frequent area's with a lot of people. No idea what drives this, but we also know some people get hit really hard by covid-19, and others don't even notice they have it... so symptoms are highly variable too.

I heard an expert discussing this fact at the weekend, and it was based around people that are considered to be 'superspreaders'. Apparently their point was that they shed a lot more virus than a normal person, so the high numbers they infect are due to this, rather than the way they act and socialise.

mattwnz

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#2543831 18-Aug-2020 16:59

Fred99:

Batman:

apparently we could have a level 1.5 https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122474741/coronavirus-alert-level-15-masks-social-distancing-among-considerations-bloomfield-suggests

People got very complacent with level 1 IMO. Shops stopped having hand-sanitiser freely available - despite it being easy to buy, hardly anybody was using the Covid app, hand-shaking, hugging was pretty well back to normal levels.

I wonder if they have enough detail on contact between people in the present cluster to come to any useful conclusions - when they had contact, then what was it? Handshake, a hug, sharing a slice of pizza - or just being in the same room for a while?

I very much doubt we will be going back down to level 1 again for a very long time. The DG even alluded to changes under level 1, which means we will likley have new level 1 definitions, or a level 1.5. eg masks on trains. Some physical distancing, and tracing requirements,.

I also heard that app uptake was about 35%, which IMO is quite high so quickly. But we need more people to signup and use it, and it needs to be better. It seems to log the person out of the app, each time they do an app update, which IMO is very poor. It has done this too me. Normally apps shouldn't log you out after an update .

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#2543832 18-Aug-2020 17:00

Uh oh some security guard is about to loose his job.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300085565/coronavirus-security-guard-leaks-list-of-auckland-isolation-guests-via-snapchat

Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding : Ice cream man , Ice cream man

Hemi88

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#2543833 18-Aug-2020 17:02

MikeB4: I am surprised still at the surfaces people touch needlessly with their hands like......
Push doors
Escalator hand rail
Traffic signal crossing buttons
Browsing and handling items in shops (not buying)
Elevator buttons.

I had to go upstairs in a building that had an escalator. In front of was about ten folk on the escalator and at least 6 had their uncovered hand on the rubber escalator band. I have to steady my self on these things and I use my covered elbow to do so. Preferably I would avoid places like this.

I was at a shop on sat when I was just leaving I caught a guy blowing his nose with a tissue and throwing it it away and then started too rub his nose with his hands and from what I could see through the windows he never used sanitizer when he went into the shop it’s disappointing

wellygary

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#2543834 18-Aug-2020 17:03

Fred99:

Batman:

apparently we could have a level 1.5 https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122474741/coronavirus-alert-level-15-masks-social-distancing-among-considerations-bloomfield-suggests

People got very complacent with level 1 IMO.

You can't really blame them thou, Even the Govt at one point rebranded the entire COVID website to be "unite for the recovery" ....

QR codes should have been mandatory from the start, and people should have been told to use them.. not "suggested"

Level 1 was pretty widely described as "normal with a closed border"...

Testing was ... well enough has already been said about testing.... we were probably quick enough to stop this cluster turning into Melbourne (its appears their cases leaked out in late May and it was not until July/August they had any lockdowns- a month a lot of spread)

We may never know the source of the two leaks here, but if we throw enough testing and isolation at them we should stamp them out...

The aftermath will probably see more QR use, and stocking up of masks, so that they can potentially be required quickly

(I've heard no stories this time round of bespoke gin distilleries turning to sanitiser production- that supply chain appears to be holding up- Masks on the other hand are as rare and expensive as hen's teeth- something to improve for next

Fred99

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#2543854 18-Aug-2020 17:45

JaseNZ:

Uh oh some security guard is about to loose his job.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300085565/coronavirus-security-guard-leaks-list-of-auckland-isolation-guests-via-snapchat

How could anybody be so bloody stupid?

I've got no idea if this was malicious or plain stupidity (maybe short-cutting procedures in place on shift-changes to let colleagues know who is in which room etc).

Probably stupidity / Hanlon's razor in action.

freitasm

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#2543861 18-Aug-2020 17:55

@kingdragonfly: Since it looks like this thread is going over a thousand posts...

I'd be interested in seeing a bar graph with the number of posts per day in this thread.

It'd be interesting if the Trump thread was used as comparison, since it's also over 1,000 pages.

It could be an interesting heat trending map.

I can do later tomorrow. But for reference this is probably the only thread ever that's been on the top of the trending list since it's started, never moving from the 1st position so far.

freitasm

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#2543862 18-Aug-2020 17:57

wellygary:

QR codes should have been mandatory from the start, and people should have been told to use them.. not "suggested"

The aftermath will probably see more QR use, and stocking up of masks, so that they can potentially be required quickly

This, quoted and bold. QR codes not being mandatory has probably made tracing harder. I still scanned every time that I went into any business - if available.

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