Linuxluver: MG ZS EV 

Looks nice and like a real car; just a shame it is another one of these SUV things.

tdgeek:

Geektastic:

If you say so. We cannot even improve the current car fleet (we do not even have a proper emissions test in the WOF yet!) because every time it is suggested it is decried as "too expensive".

Well, if that is too expensive, a volte face to full on electric is going to make that look like pocket change. I just cannot see where all this money is going to come from.

I reckon we will at best end up with a list of exceptions as long as your arm - for example, powering agricultural machinery on batteries is not going to happen any time soon: how do you run a combine or a forage harvester for 18 hour non stop work days on batteries?

You're just focussing on edge cases and being negative. If EV's were cheaper, so that the premium was recoverable in a few years by fuel savings, and plentiful, they would sell like hot cakes. Because most people are green? No. because its a financially cheaper than an ICE. Who cares if large farm equipment is largely oil based? Then you have solid state batteries. Hydrogen can replace diesel for edge cases such as farm equipment.  

Geektastic:

I’m not sure that would happen. There are a lot of people in NZ who can’t afford to buy their fuel in advance, which is what you’re in effect saying.

What are all the people driving clunkers who earn low wages going to drive if ice cars are banned?

There are a lot of people who live outside handy metropolitan areas for whom switching would be both more difficult and impractical based on present vehicles.

Certainly, city dwellers who use their cars for relatively modest commutes and weekend shopping can change assuming they can afford something. Farmers and rural dwellers would presently find it a challenge.

Also what will the cheap second hand market be filled by?

Unless someone is prepared to commit a lot of taxpayer money to subsidising this it’s going to be very challenging.

I also have a suspicion that electricity used for cars might suddenly get more expensive once it’s a majority fuel - or that RUCs will be levied.

Buy the fuel in advance? Dont follow that. I buy petrol in advance, I'd charge the car in advance

Clunker drivers will remain, when ICE cars get stopped from arriving, they wont be buying them new. They can buy their next clunker as an old EV or PHEV. Its JUST a powerplant, its nothing new or weird or extraordinary. The car Steve pictured is just a car, it could be diesel, petrol or electric, its just a car

Outside handy metro areas? I guess if they lived 350km from the next charging point.....

Farmers etc who need more than electric will use what they use now

Cheap second hand market will be filled by cheap second hand cars, just that over time they will be less ICE and more EV/PHEV

Fuel will probably start to increase as well in the future. less produced and exported means higher price per litre, another reason to buya  cheaper running vehicle

gzt:
Trains. Line electrification is expensive. UK and Germany have around 50% of national track electrified. Both are looking at hydrogen fuel cell electric trains to bridge the gaps in electric track. UK is converting some existing stock and will begin mainline testing in March:

And trains are one application where hydrogen might make sense - they already weigh 1000t+ each so the additional weight for a high pressure hydrogen tank is not a huge sacrifice. Also, being high powered industrial equipment, it's a reasonable assumption that they will be professionally maintained: filled by trained & certified operators, and the tanks and other high pressure components of the train regularly inspected. The bogan factor in theory isn't a problem here.

Geektastic:

What are all the people driving clunkers who earn low wages going to drive if ice cars are banned?

When they talk about 'banning' ICE vehicles, what they normally mean is ban new registrations. They're not going to come around your place at midnight on the 1st of January and tow your old car away. You will just have to replace it with an EV when it stops clunking.

jonathan18:

And I see it as a ‘homage’ to Mazdas like the CX5...

tdgeek:

 

Buy the fuel in advance? Dont follow that. I buy petrol in advance, I'd charge the car in advance.

 

I believe he was referring to the premium you pay for an EV over an equivalently specced ICE. Mainly due to the cost of the battery. That is then recovered over time by a cheaper (possibly free, from PV home charging) energy source and lower maintenance costs. But you pay up front at the time of purchase.

From the same podcast as I referenced earlier, for a fully renewable grid and an ev transport fleet, expect electricity to cost 3 times what it does at the moment.

Linuxluver:

jonathan18:

 

And I see it as a ‘homage’ to Mazdas like the CX5...

 

Very much so.

An EV MG Roadster, now you’re talking! Because they could just copy take inspiration from the MX5 if they are into Mazdas.

(Yes, I know MG is a Chinese company now so unlikely to ever build something like that.)

Geektastic:

I also have a suspicion that electricity used for cars might suddenly get more expensive once it’s a majority fuel - or that RUCs will be levied.

RUCs are unlikely to rise to the cost that makes EVs uneconomical and are actually likely to be lower for EVs than other domestic cars as incentivisation to phase out ICEs.

Dingbatt:

 

I believe he was referring to the premium you pay for an EV over an equivalently specced ICE. Mainly due to the cost of the battery. That is then recovered over time by a cheaper (possibly free, from PV home charging) energy source and lower maintenance costs. But you pay up front at the time of purchase.

 

From the same podcast as I referenced earlier, for a fully renewable grid and an ev transport fleet, expect electricity to cost 3 times what it does at the moment.

 

Ok, ta.

I have issues with the premium, its too high, as you replace a VERY expensive ICE and gearbox with an EV motor. Batteries cost three arms and two legs? No.

BUT, the premium (based I assume on R+D not real cost) is coming down. Steve's car he pictures is 48k for a new SUV

Electricity is 30 cents per litre equivalent. Bare minimum annual servicing

Should the grid be expanded, say Tiwai, and we produce more electricity and we use more, it "should" be cheaper, economies of scale-wise (Yes, I know Tiwai pricing is an issue) I cannot see power prices increasing 300%

Geektastic: 

 

I’m not sure that would happen. There are a lot of people in NZ who can’t afford to buy their fuel in advance, which is what you’re in effect saying.

What are all the people driving clunkers who earn low wages going to drive if ice cars are banned?

There are a lot of people who live outside handy metropolitan areas for whom switching would be both more difficult and impractical based on present vehicles.

Certainly, city dwellers who use their cars for relatively modest commutes and weekend shopping can change assuming they can afford something. Farmers and rural dwellers would presently find it a challenge.

Also what will the cheap second hand market be filled by?

Unless someone is prepared to commit a lot of taxpayer money to subsidising this it’s going to be very challenging.

I also have a suspicion that electricity used for cars might suddenly get more expensive once it’s a majority fuel - or that RUCs will be levied.

As was pointed out, these bans are on new cars, not cars that already exist in the country. New Zealand also isn't big enough that an EV is any less practical for getting to the shops with in a rural environment vs urban. With all the EV utes due to release this coming year the rural tasks that a ute could be needed for on a farm are about to have a solution too.

The governments current commitment to replace all of their vehicles with EVs by 2025 will go a ways to boosting the EV second hand market. Adding real incentives now for consumers to do the same like nearly every other developed country would also help with that. 

Electricity has a cap on how expensive it can get. With the costs of solar and home energy storage dropping, power companies will need to be mindful of breaking that cost benefit barrier - if they do, then people are just going to make their own power and bypass the power companies.

tdgeek:

 

......

 

Should the grid be expanded, say Tiwai, and we produce more electricity and we use more, it "should" be cheaper, economies of scale-wise (Yes, I know Tiwai pricing is an issue) I cannot see power prices increasing 300%

 

nzkiwiman:

 

Linuxluver: MG ZS EV 

 

Looks nice and like a real car; just a shame it is another one of these SUV things.

 

Obraik:

 

As was pointed out, these bans are on new cars, not cars that already exist in the country. ....

 

tdgeek:

 

Fuel will probably start to increase as well in the future. less produced and exported means higher price per litre, another reason to buya  cheaper running vehicle

 

I think in the short to medium term, petrol & diesel prices won't rise. Oil sales are now limited by demand, not supply. Any increase in price will reduce demand further, and shift customers to EVs.

In the longterm, petrol & diesel prices will increase as economies of scale are lost. As a consequence, oil prices will decrease (and peace will break out in the Middle East). It may be that the price of other oil-based products (e.g. plastics) will rise as they are no longer by-products of a profitable petrol industry.