I'm kind of hoping these will make it to NZ...

BYD’s affordable Seagull EV poised to arrive as the UK’s cheapest electric car

wellygary:

 

SaltyNZ:

 

I mean I'm fine with RUCs with but I also plan to stress test the NZTA system... It's my civic duty to ensure they can handle the load.

 

 

There are ~950K light diesels currently in the fleet that are already registered a purchasing RUC, adding 100K EVs isn't likely to cause that big a capacity problem 

 

Azzura:

 

I'm kind of hoping these will make it to NZ...

 

 

 

BYD’s affordable Seagull EV poised to arrive as the UK’s cheapest electric car

 

An interesting article on EV depreciation here which is sobering reading for anyone thinking of buying one. - https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/new-zealands-ev-trade-in-values-how-low-would-you-go/

But, judging solely by Trademe, BYD seems to be one manufacturer which seems to have avoided this - probably because their cars were such a good value proposition from the start.  So a small, cheap BYD might be just the thing to revive EVs in NZ

Azzura:

I'm kind of hoping these will make it to NZ...

 

BYD’s affordable Seagull EV poised to arrive as the UK’s cheapest electric car

Azzura:

I'm kind of hoping these will make it to NZ...

BYD’s affordable Seagull EV poised to arrive as the UK’s cheapest electric car

shk292:

 

An interesting article on EV depreciation here which is sobering reading for anyone thinking of buying one. - https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/new-zealands-ev-trade-in-values-how-low-would-you-go/

 

 

 

But, judging solely by Trademe, BYD seems to be one manufacturer which seems to have avoided this - probably because their cars were such a good value proposition from the start.  So a small, cheap BYD might be just the thing to revive EVs in NZ

 

It's a bit of a loaded article.

Doesn't consider the impact of the rebate on the initial purchase, and uses trade in value, instead of market value for the value after 12 months.

Publishes the quote in bold "A new $100,000 EV could be worth $60,000 after 12 months, and based on depreciation calculations, just $36,000 after two years", but I don't think there is any evidence of example of such a depreciation curve. ~ 2017 model X's are still asking around $65k...

And there is a new article by the same author on the same topic today (just two days later).

https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/is-a-used-tesla-the-new-used-nissan-leaf-in-nz/

-----------------------

That said, regular depreciation is returning to the auto market, after a few years of weird pandemic related behavior.

For the new EV Buyer Consider the following:

• New EV's are dramatically cheaper than a year ago as examples:

   

  • VW id.4 Pro $20k price drop from $80k to $60k
  • Ex demo EV6 GT, the 430kW one which is faster than the supercar's of my childhood: $83k (was $139,990 a year ago).
  • Ex demo 2024 EV9 RWD light $89,990, hasn't been out for a year , but was $89,990
• EV dealers have substantial excess stock, so phoning around a few dealers could net further discounts.
• We may well have the widest range of EV's in NZ now that we will have for a few years. As an example VW has announced it is dropping the ID.4 once current stock is cleared, I am sure other brands will quietly do the same.
• That said, there are still new & exciting models coming. EV5 pricing & specs have been released. Cheaper than the EV6, but with a massive LFP battery giving it more range.
• The pandemic era new (and used) car shortage's are over. The days of model 3's holding their value for ~2 years are long gone. We are going to return to normal depreciation behavior, and EV's will be hit harder as the tech is advancing faster than other vehicle types.
• A global glut of cars in general, (especially EV's) will put downwards pressure on new cars.

My take as to why the above is happening:

• Globally the car market is cooling. Supply was ramped due to demand & shortages in the pandemic, and this has collided with lesser demand due to economic conditions & high interest rates.
• Globally EV's are particularly impacted. There were long wait times in the wake of the Ukraine invasion & associated oil price spikes, but production has been ramped up to a point where waitlists have been cleared and there is now a supply glut.
• The UK has delayed it's IEC bans.
• Fomo is gone from the auto market, replaced with fear of overpaying. There is no longer a rush to buy, or place an order several months before delivery.
• And of course the NZ specific stuff

   

  • Rebate ending

     

    • Created a surge of demand at the tale of last year where people looking to buy made the decision to bring forward purchases to avail the rebate - this lead to a demand crash at the start of 2024.
    • Automakers have stock orders based on models which included the clean car discount (and likely a lower rate of RUC), now have abundant stock on hand.
  • RUC: I think many were predicting that EV RUC's would be further deferred, or set at a rate comparable to an economical hybrid car. As they stand a leaf pays 2.4x that of a toyota yaris hybrid or similar. This has an impact at the smaller, cheaper end of an EV market. A 24kWh leaf like mine is now half the value of a comparable Toyota aqua as the latter costs about the same to run, but has none of the range limitations.
  • New models (typically china built) have come to the market offering value never seen before in the EV space. 
  • The Clean Car Standard is running (where brands get charged a fee if their fleet average emissions is too high), means it is worth a few thousand in fee savings for somebody like ford to sell an EV, which may encourage them to offer sharper pricing.

Will be interesting how this plays out globally. Many countries have said they want to go EV only in the near future, so the auto industry has responded by ramping up production, but globally we have not put in place policies so this volume of EV's sell, so manufactures are now dialing back their production which is sad to see.

I have been reading recently about BYD’s Blade 2.0 battery. Through design and chemistry (still LFP though) it looks like it is going to increase energy density from (approx) 140Wh/kg to 180Wh/kg, as well improving charge rate. While it’s nowhere near the 240 Wh/kg achievable by NMC, it stands to still be cheaper, safer and longer lasting.

So for something like the Seal, if they stuck the same size (by weight) pack, that would potentially increase its range from 570km (WLTP) to over 720km. Depending how they deploy it, does that immediately decrease the value of BYD’s current vehicles with Blade 1.0 batteries?

Scott3:

 

It's a bit of a loaded article.

Doesn't consider the impact of the rebate on the initial purchase, and uses trade in value, instead of market value for the value after 12 months.

Publishes the quote in bold "A new $100,000 EV could be worth $60,000 after 12 months, and based on depreciation calculations, just $36,000 after two years", but I don't think there is any evidence of example of such a depreciation curve. ~ 2017 model X's are still asking around $65k...

And there is a new article by the same author on the same topic today (just two days later).

 

https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/is-a-used-tesla-the-new-used-nissan-leaf-in-nz/

 

....

 

As new EVs reduce in price towards and beyond parity with ICEVs so to will the values of those EVs already in use and it will be difficult for those who purchased new in the last year or two to see the benchmark of new EV prices recede as they now attempt to sell their investment, particularly when they have financed their way into the vehicle with the help of the CCD. Just like in a falling real estate market there will be sellers who cling to the hope of getting last month's/year's pricing rather than swallow the dead rat of reality. EVs are a disruptive technology and the market and lifestyle upset that this results in will come at a price, especially for those that extended their financial leveraging for FOMO and now find the economy tightening around them.

Teslas are perhaps not the best vehicles to apply the depreciation discussion to. Particularly the Model 3, which having just had a refresh, means the ‘old’ model is automatically worth less. Add to that the glut of 2-3 year old ones as people upgrade, and Teslas price cutting and it is a recipe for a steep depreciation. I factor in the rebate in my calculations. So my starting point is $8625 less. If I do trade to a different vehicle this year, then the numbers will have to stack up. Otherwise I’ll just continue to drive my 2022 TM3, it’s a good car.

What would really hurt, is if you’d bought an Audi eTron GT two years ago for $215K because they are now selling for $120K, which means the dealer probably gave you $110K as a trade. Nice car, but with depreciation like (in dollar terms it’s approx a thousand a week) that you probably need to be a lotto winner!

Dingbatt:

 

What would really hurt, is if you’d bought an Audi eTron GT two years ago for $215K because they are now selling for $120K, which means the dealer probably gave you $110K as a trade. Nice car, but with depreciation like (in dollar terms it’s approx a thousand a week) that you probably need to be a lotto winner!

 

Drive it until it costs more to put electrons in the tank than it's worth. That curve flattens out at some point. 

GV27:

 

Dingbatt:

 

What would really hurt, is if you’d bought an Audi eTron GT two years ago for $215K because they are now selling for $120K, which means the dealer probably gave you $110K as a trade. Nice car, but with depreciation like (in dollar terms it’s approx a thousand a week) that you probably need to be a lotto winner!

 

 

Drive it until it costs more to put electrons in the tank than it's worth. That curve flattens out at some point. 

 

My local Ford dealer just sent me an email with “Weekend Sale Specials”. Of interest to this thread is the Mach-E priced at

AWD $87.6K

GT $97.8K

which is a price drop of $22.4K and $27.2K respectively (on original pricing - discounts of $8K more recently). On top of that a whopping 1000km of RUCs ($76) and 5 year service plan.

Ford must be hurting. The Mach-E rwd was competitively priced for rebate times, but the AWD and GT were always overpriced compared to the competition. This will hurt Mach-E owners as the starting point for depreciation is $20K+ lower.

The EV market has been fascinating to watch, especially the recent significant drop in new sales (early adopters pretty much exhausted, rebates removed, road user charges introduced and, now, significant depreciation losses needing to be realised if looking to on sell in second hand market).

Visited local Kia dealer last weekend. A brand new EV6 had a $20k reduction hand-written note attached to the window. I suspect there was even more margin in it as salesman pretty much indicated that interest had all but dried up. Similar drops in Ford pricing per post above.

Where to? I think electric has a future, but that future will be Chinese-produced cars and will need EV pricing equal or below ICE to kick start mainstream interest.

I think the future for Tesla is tenuous. No new products in over 5 years (I'm excluding the folly that is Cybertruck) and the 'Model 2' seemingly pulled from development (?)  I don't think they will be able to compete against Chinese manufacturers, so maybe their future survival will be a pivot to industry leaders in EV technology (eg autonomous driving) rather than vehicle manufacture?

I don't think the lack of a cheaper Tesla Model 2 is going to spell the downfall for Tesla. They have been cutting prices on their cars when they have been able/needed to, and I am sure that will continue.

Neither do I think that "no new models" is a problem. Just look at the most sold cars in NZ for 2023:

1: Toyota RAV4
2: Mitsubishi Outlander
3: Tesla Model Y
4: Suzuki Swift
5: Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross
6: BYD Atto 3
7: MG ZS
8: Toyota Yaris Cross
9: Toyota Corolla
10: Honda Jazz

I would argue that the EVs in that list are substantially newer models than any of the other ICE cars on the list.

I mean, RAV4 has been for sale for 30 years. So following your logic shouldn't be selling at all, or did I misunderstand you?

dafman:

 

I think the future for Tesla is tenuous. No new products in over 5 years (I'm excluding the folly that is Cybertruck) and the 'Model 2' seemingly pulled from development (?) 

 

Musk has to go. He was merely dragging them down by forcing them to work on that ridiculous Cybertruck instead of the Model 2. But this week's round of firings - the entire Supercharger and new car development teams - what the hell is that?