What will power our vehicles in the future?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › What will power our vehicles in the future?

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#2749540 25-Jul-2021 20:15

raytaylor:

Also thinking about hydrogen transport - whats stopping it being transported in the form of off-peak electrical capacity?
A mini production plant at every service station using off-peak daytime grid capacity from nearby residential solar panels?

Our excess off-peak generation would be better off going into something like pumped hydro so that it can then be used on-peak. Just getting one decent pumped hydro site would probably be enough to kill off Huntly. Get a few more and combine it with incentives to put solar on residential houses then we can start storing daytime solar generation for use at night during the peak hours.

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WyleECoyoteNZ

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#2749585 25-Jul-2021 23:31

Meridian Energy and Contact Energy, are investigating the idea of turning the Tiwai Point facility into a large-scale green hydrogen factory

https://www.autocar.co.nz/autocar-news-app/tiwai-point-could-be-world-s-first-large-green-hydrogen-factory

geoffwnz

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#2750569 27-Jul-2021 11:49

I think one thing that most people tend to overlook with Hydrogen is that we aren't done "inventing" new technology yet. Not by a long shot. So who knows what breakthrough might/will occur in the next 5, 10, 50 years to either make Hydrogen a viable alternative, or something totally different become a viable solution.

My own use-case, I could, if I had the funds, replace the daily driven 25 year old corolla with, for example, an older low capacity Leaf as it really only ever gets driven to and from the station and occasional slightly longer drives.

Currently there isn't a viable (and I include initial purchase price in the viability assessment) option to replace the 2008 Ranger that I use for towing the race car (that's a whole other debate for another time) and any longer trips. There are certainly more potential options starting to make appearances in worldwide markets and I await with interest to see what starts trickling down in the next 10 or so years. Be that more efficient/cleaner fossil fuel use, battery, hybrid or something else entirely.

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RobDickinson

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#2750573 27-Jul-2021 11:56

geoffwnz:

I think one thing that most people tend to overlook with Hydrogen is that we aren't done "inventing" new technology yet. Not by a long shot.

Whilst that is true its true of any sector (including batteries) and the fundamental energy equations of hydrogen are poor. Those cant be solved by new technology.

Technofreak

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#2750579 27-Jul-2021 12:10

RobDickinson:

geoffwnz:

I think one thing that most people tend to overlook with Hydrogen is that we aren't done "inventing" new technology yet. Not by a long shot.

Whilst that is true its true of any sector (including batteries) and the fundamental energy equations of hydrogen are poor. Those cant be solved by new technology.

The fundamental energy equations of fossil fuels are also poor but they've served the worlds energy requirements very well from a purely energy point of view for a very long time. Similarly hydrogen cannot be dismissed because of its energy equation.

When/If we invent a battery with equal energy density to fossil fuels and can charge that battery in a time similar to it takes to refuel with fossil fuels then batteries will likely be the universal energy source. Until then there will be a market for the likes of hydrogen.

Also I'm not convinced the true cost (environmentally and economically) of the whole life cycle of batteries has been realised yet.

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RobDickinson

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#2750580 27-Jul-2021 12:12

So who is looking at the whole life cycle of a FCEV? It has batteries, it has rare metals in its fuel cell. it has tanks and piping that are only rated for 10 years etc.

Handle9

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#2750586 27-Jul-2021 12:30

RobDickinson:
geoffwnz:

I think one thing that most people tend to overlook with Hydrogen is that we aren't done "inventing" new technology yet. Not by a long shot.

Whilst that is true its true of any sector (including batteries) and the fundamental energy equations of hydrogen are poor. Those cant be solved by new technology.

So what? There isn't one single technology that is suitable for every application.

We don't have a single fuel used for every application today. Why would that be any different in the future?

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RobDickinson

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#2750589 27-Jul-2021 12:36

No it wont, check back some pages you'll see me supporting hydrogen for a number of applications. cars isnt one tho.

frankv

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#2750709 27-Jul-2021 14:48

Technofreak:

When/If we invent a battery with equal energy density to fossil fuels and can charge that battery in a time similar to it takes to refuel with fossil fuels then batteries will likely be the universal energy source. Until then there will be a market for the likes of hydrogen.

There will be a market for hydrogen if

it (including the tanks and coolers, etc) has an equal or better energy density to batteries
can refill it in a similar or less time
it is cheaper than electricity
it is at least as clean to make
there is a distribution network for it

I figure it's 2/5 at best.

Even if hydrogen is better, it may need to be head-and-shoulders better. Otherwise you may get a VHS vs Betamax catch-22 situation, where insufficient users make it uneconomic to build a ubiquitous distribution network, and inadequate coverage mean users won't adopt it.

Technofreak

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#2750744 27-Jul-2021 16:19

RobDickinson:

So who is looking at the whole life cycle of a FCEV? It has batteries, it has rare metals in its fuel cell. it has tanks and piping that are only rated for 10 years etc.

Yes, no doubt the FCEV has some of the same issues.

I'm not saying BEV's won't be the future for motor cars and light vehicles. I'm saying some of the issues around BEV's aren't settled yet and there may end up being other options.

Hydrogen won't just be used in FCEV's it will also be used in ICE engines.

For some applications I don't see a viable alternative to fossil fuels for quite some years yet.

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RobDickinson

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#2750750 27-Jul-2021 16:25

Hydrogen is horrid stuff to burn though (low energy) and to store (temps or pressures).

Practically speaking your probably better off with biofuels if you are going to burn it

Technofreak

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#2750768 27-Jul-2021 16:33

frankv:

Technofreak:

When/If we invent a battery with equal energy density to fossil fuels and can charge that battery in a time similar to it takes to refuel with fossil fuels then batteries will likely be the universal energy source. Until then there will be a market for the likes of hydrogen.

There will be a market for hydrogen if

it (including the tanks and coolers, etc) has an equal or better energy density to batteries
can refill it in a similar or less time
it is cheaper than electricity
it is at least as clean to make
there is a distribution network for it
I figure it's 2/5 at best.

Even if hydrogen is better, it may need to be head-and-shoulders better. Otherwise you may get a VHS vs Betamax catch-22 situation, where insufficient users make it uneconomic to build a ubiquitous distribution network, and inadequate coverage mean users won't adopt it.

You make some good points. I don't know that we'll end up in a VHS V Beat Max situation, time will tell. Right at the moment there are applications where the BEV solution doesn't work from either or both energy density and charging times. For a lot of these applications Hydrogen is a solution I'm not saying it's viable right now (availability/cost) but otherwise is a working solution that can replace fossil fuels.

Technological advancements in battery technology, electricity production costs etc will tip the balance in various directions. It may well be that that light vehicles will be BEV replacing gasoline powered vehicles and hydrogen (either FCEV or ICE) will power heavy vehicles replacing diesel powered vehicles.

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RobDickinson

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#2750770 27-Jul-2021 16:44

Technofreak:

Right at the moment there are applications where the BEV solution doesn't work from either or both energy density and charging times. For a lot of these applications Hydrogen is a solution I'm not saying it's viable right now (availability/cost)

The problem is speed.

We need change fast, and hydrogen is anything but.

Every year you delay it batteries get 10% better (energy density etc) and 10% cheaper and your potential use and market for hydrogen shrinks.

Given they have been working on it for literal decades I've no confidence in it ever being a practical , green, solution to any problem, it has the potential for sure.

Grunta47

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#2750880 27-Jul-2021 17:28

RobDickinson:

The problem is speed.

We need change fast, and hydrogen is anything but.

It all depends on your definition of speed/fast change. At the moment the EV timeline don't appear fast to me. With current uptake its still going to take 30 years for EV's to be the majority/vehicle of preference and this is only in countries where the Government has legislated and Joe public is on board.

If (and its a big IF) Hydrogen technology could be made to work, in either new or existing ICE vehicles, then you shut down a lot of the concerns of the ICE brigade.

I drove down a certain street for the first time last week and there were at least 30-40 cars parked on the side of the road, with another 10-20 parked in driveways. All throughout Wellington/Porirua there is major on-street parking and this is probably the biggest issue to address for EV's. Many houses will have 4 or 5 cars parked in their drive (I dont know what their situation is) so how do you manage charging all of these?

Hydrogen, or any other green fuel, would make it a lot easier for these people to transition away from ICE.....but that's all waiting for the big IF.

Gurezaemon

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#2750886 27-Jul-2021 18:00

There seems to be a total lack of discussion in NZ of battery swapping in electric cars - something which could essentially eliminate concerns about charging times and range anxiety. It's already taking off in a significant way in Asia.

This really piqued my interest:

Anyone have any thoughts as to why this couldn't/wouldn't work in New Zealand?

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