What will power our vehicles in the future?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › What will power our vehicles in the future?

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#2751062 28-Jul-2021 09:32

This is the global car industry not NZ related. I didnt realise we were limiting discussion to just NZ.

and overall I would trust Seba over someone called dingbat.

Grunta47

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#2751065 28-Jul-2021 09:36

Dingbatt:

Really? You expect BEV production (or in NZ’s case availability) to be the same as FFV demand by 2024? To quote a Mitre10 ad, “Mate, you’re dreaming!”. Unless of course it’s not the Osbourne effect at all and is driven by regulation (politics).

Lol, you beat me to it :-)

By this graph there will only be 45 Million cars sold in 2024, whereas currently sales are around 80-90 million per year and showing no signs of changing.

RobDickinson

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#2751067 28-Jul-2021 09:39

Heres another view on it.

https://thedriven.io/2020/07/07/the-osborne-effect-why-new-car-sales-will-be-all-electric-in-six-years/

But keep heads firmly in sand if you like.

Actual timeline and numbers might be slightly different but the industry knows this is coming, which is why we've had a number of car company ceo's quit, and lots of car companies group together to try and use scale as an advantage.

mkissin

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#2751070 28-Jul-2021 09:55

Technofreak:
gzt: Wireless inductive charging at the lights and in parking spaces is a serious contender. The transmission losses are fairly high, 20-30% on a good day if I recall. That's still workable for many people, the average car commute km is not high.

I've thought wireless charging might be an option but when you read about the issues with the wireless charging with some of the iPhones and pacemakers I'm not too sure the traffic light option will be a goer.

Wireless vehicle charging is required by standards (SAE J2954 and others) to be 85% efficient minimum, wall to battery at a 3.3kW to 11 kW power level. That's about the same level of efficiency as the plugin charger on the Nissan Leaf. Much higher efficiencies are readily achievable (95% is doable) but at increased cost.

In addition, the chargers have very sophisticated designs and safety systems to avoid any danger (real or perceived) to humans including influence to implantable medical devices. They fully comply with ICNIRP 1997 limits oin human exposure and the ISO/AAMI 14117 standard on limits for induced voltages on implantable cardiac devices.

Source:I design wireless charging systems for a living.

RobDickinson

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#2751072 28-Jul-2021 09:57

I see wireless charging for public on road level 2 charging but theres little point in using it at home/garage.

Grunta47

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#2751081 28-Jul-2021 10:27

RobDickinson:

But keep heads firmly in sand if you like.

I don't see where we said it wasn't coming. You supplied a graph, we disagreed based on what appears to be a serious oversight (from our POV) in the data, you go on a personal attack.

Yes, ICE will go the way of the dinosaurs. I just don't believe it will be as quick as many say.

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Obraik

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#2751109 28-Jul-2021 11:18

With governments having set dates for when ICE vehicles will no longer be sold, ICE will quickly start to fade away from the new car market in the next 10-15 years. By the end of this decade I would be very surprised if the majority of new vehicles sold are not BEVs

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#2751121 28-Jul-2021 11:48

Obraik:

With governments having set dates for when ICE vehicles will no longer be sold, ICE will quickly start to fade away from the new car market in the next 10-15 years. By the end of this decade I would be very surprised if the majority of new vehicles sold are not BEVs

This is similar to the announcement a while back about restricting residential gas - it may not come into force for ages, but this announcement alone was enough to sway my neighbours to going electric instead of gas for their new build.

Even if it only persuades 1% of new car buyers to go electric, this will have a noticeable decent impact.

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Obraik

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#2751135 28-Jul-2021 12:12

I'm not talking about our government, I'm talking about international governments. Especially the likes of the UK and Japan. Being the largest RHD markets, their decisions will directly impact the supply of new vehicles that we get. Car makers aren't going to bother making RHD ICE vehicles for our small market if they're increasing the scale of the BEV RHD vehicles for the large markets.

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Dingbatt

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#2751144 28-Jul-2021 12:28

RobDickinson:

This is the global car industry not NZ related. I didnt realise we were limiting discussion to just NZ.

and overall I would trust Seba over someone called dingbat.

For a start there isn’t labelling on the vertical axis, so I assumed it was thousands because of the digits on display rather than millions, hence the reference to NZ rather than the world.

I know you are passionate about this subject but try not to make it personal.

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MrAmerica

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#2751162 28-Jul-2021 13:14

Dingbatt:
RobDickinson:

This is the global car industry not NZ related. I didnt realise we were limiting discussion to just NZ.

and overall I would trust Seba over someone called dingbat.

For a start there isn’t labelling on the vertical axis, so I assumed it was thousands because of the digits on display rather than millions, hence the reference to NZ rather than the world.

I know you are passionate about this subject but try not to make it personal.

Agree, probably be good if everyone stopped making it personal

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=162&topicid=197896&page_no=363#2749972

It adds nothing to the discussion.

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Technofreak

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#2751164 28-Jul-2021 13:19

RobDickinson:

Heres another view on it.

https://thedriven.io/2020/07/07/the-osborne-effect-why-new-car-sales-will-be-all-electric-in-six-years/

But keep heads firmly in sand if you like.

When I see headlines like that I immediately think of stuff like this.

"Everything that can be invented has been invented." — Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." — Bill Gates, 1981

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

Early in the history of automobiles we had a time where the vast majority of motor cars were BEV's. Technology and consumer demands meant that the ICE became dominant.

We are now moving to a period where once again BEV's are likely to dominate not because of technology or consumer demands but because of legislation. Right at the moment BEV's are the easiest way to comply with the legislated requirements. The current move towards BEV's is being artificially driven by government legislation, which I would argue isn't necessarily the best way to get to the best solution. BEV's may not be the best long term solution. Technology and consumer demand will ultimately determine that.

RobDickinson:

Actual timeline and numbers might be slightly different but the industry knows this is coming, which is why we've had a number of car company ceo's quit, and lots of car companies group together to try and use scale as an advantage.

The consolidation of car companies has nothing to do with EV's. It's been going of for many years.

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gzt

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#2751413 28-Jul-2021 17:45

mkissin: Wireless vehicle charging is required by standards (SAE J2954 and others) to be 85% efficient minimum, wall to battery at a 3.3kW to 11 kW power level. That's about the same level of efficiency as the plugin charger on the Nissan Leaf. Much higher efficiencies are readily achievable (95% is doable) but at increased cost.

In addition, the chargers have very sophisticated designs and safety systems to avoid any danger (real or perceived) to humans including influence to implantable medical devices. They fully comply with ICNIRP 1997 limits oin human exposure and the ISO/AAMI 14117 standard on limits for induced voltages on implantable cardiac devices.

Source: I design wireless charging systems for a living.

Wow! Things have really moved on. That's awesome.

gzt

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#2752879 31-Jul-2021 14:51

Tesla's lead battery supplier developing Sodium Ion batteries:

https://insideevs.com/news/523413/catl-unveils-sodium-ion-battery/

Main advantages are excellent low temperature performance and fast charging. Manufacturer is working on power density. Even if they can't raise density for some reason this is a useful niche product.

RobDickinson

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#2752899 31-Jul-2021 15:32

Second gen at 200wh/kg is close to the 210wh on the LFP cells currently used in the model 3

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