Driverless cars... how far off are they now?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › Driverless cars... how far off are they now?

PhantomNVD

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#229041 5-Feb-2018 07:48

So slightly separated from the EV move, will my kids ever need to learn to drive?

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#1951692 5-Feb-2018 07:56

About as far away as the Flying cars that we were promised 40 years ago, or the Martin "Jet" pack. There are so many things that need to be in place before a real "driverless" car is viable that I doubt it will happen in my lifetime in anything but very limited demo situations. Its all about the PR, not the reality.

epr

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#1951693 5-Feb-2018 07:57

Hopefully they are not too far away because i am looking at a potential future with disability self driving cars will make life so much more livable for people who cannot drive themselves.

sbiddle

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#1951694 5-Feb-2018 08:00

Driverless cars that can operate within specific geofenced areas that have been fully mapped out are not that far away. Drfiverless cars that can operate anywhere are still many years away from reality.

noroad

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#1951695 5-Feb-2018 08:01

sbiddle:

Driverless cars that can operate within specific geofenced areas that have been fully mapped out are not that far away. Driverless cars that can operate anywhere are still many years away from reality.

Exactly my point.

langi27

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#1951697 5-Feb-2018 08:20

I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see self driving delivery cars soon, (2-3 years)

https://hypebeast.com/2018/1/nuro-self-driving-delivery-car

The most basic of delivery services eg Pizza, Supermarket, Uber Eats.

Even courier's could off load a high percentage of their delivery's to this type of car.

sbiddle

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#1951719 5-Feb-2018 08:24

langi27:

I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see self driving delivery cars soon, (2-3 years)

https://hypebeast.com/2018/1/nuro-self-driving-delivery-car

The most basic of delivery services eg Pizza, Supermarket, Uber Eats.

Even courier's could off load a high percentage of their delivery's to this type of car.

Yeah nah.

Lazy people who want pizza delivered aren't going to want to have to actually leave their couch to find the the self driving car to collect their pizza.

noroad

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#1951723 5-Feb-2018 08:35

langi27:

I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see self driving delivery cars soon, (2-3 years)

https://hypebeast.com/2018/1/nuro-self-driving-delivery-car

The most basic of delivery services eg Pizza, Supermarket, Uber Eats.

Even courier's could off load a high percentage of their delivery's to this type of car.

Not going to happen in this lifetime, that thing will hundreds of thousands of dollars (at best)and the ROI would never add up for deliveries compared to a second hand Japanese import and minimum wage worker. The numbers are not even close to stacking up even if the technology one day got good enough to navigate unprepared residential neighborhoods and driveways. Sorry, that is just hype created by companies trying to suck in investment capital, its just not real.

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sbiddle

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#1951729 5-Feb-2018 08:54

noroad:

langi27:

I wouldn't be surprised if we start to see self driving delivery cars soon, (2-3 years)

https://hypebeast.com/2018/1/nuro-self-driving-delivery-car

The most basic of delivery services eg Pizza, Supermarket, Uber Eats.

Even courier's could off load a high percentage of their delivery's to this type of car.

Not going to happen in this lifetime, that thing will hundreds of thousands of dollars (at best)and the ROI would never add up for deliveries compared to a second hand Japanese import and minimum wage worker. The numbers are not even close to stacking up even if the technology one day got good enough to navigate unprepared residential neighborhoods and driveways. Sorry, that is just hype created by companies trying to suck in investment capital, its just not real.

Exactly. How will the courier package get from the vehicle to the customer? Will they need to spend a few million on a robot that can climb steps?

How will they train the self driving vehicle to park on yellow lines or the footpath with it's hazard lights on?

epr

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#1951732 5-Feb-2018 08:58

How will they teach self driving cars who to kill in an accident situation. Do I run over 1 child to save 2 old people or do I kill any one to protect my owner at all costs.

langi27

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#1951769 5-Feb-2018 09:24

maybe some blind optimism on my part but, i still think there is a place for these types of vehicles and they will be here sooner than you think. They may not be in your face on a daily basis but they will operate behind the scenes. think about large companies that uses drivers for specific duties, eg Medical couriers that pick up samples for testing and take them to a testing facility, or a coffee roasting house that sends out its fresh beans to cafes every day. Why can't this be done autonomously?

So long as you agree to walk out to the car drop it off and collect it, I don't see how this wouldn't be cheaper than a man in a van.

Building a car that doesn't need an interior will be significantly cheaper than a new vehicle and probably on par with a 2nd hand jap import. You can already buy cheap Chinese brand new cars for $15k, (Cherry J3) I very much expect a driver less, passenger less car to be half that.

tdgeek

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#1951774 5-Feb-2018 09:31

I feel the tech that would make driverless cars work well is not that far away. Even if a glitch causes an accident or a death that is still far safer than humans as tech will do what its told, humans don't, or make an unintended or careless mistake

The issue is how long would it take for the tech to be tested, and then to pass into law? Forever. There is a natural human concern for one tonne vehicles whizzing around the streets, past schools, that would take a long time to get human and legal acceptance. One minor accident that dented a $1000 dunga would be in the news for months.

Small applications such as airports etc may not be far away, and likely to be physically fenced as well.

Driverless cars that had to have a driver are bound to be sooner, that way you can combine the human being there just in case, with the 100% road rule compliance of the car. A form of cruise control, and same basis as autopilot on an aircraft

networkn

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#1951775 5-Feb-2018 09:32

langi27:

maybe some blind optimism on my part but, i still think there is a place for these types of vehicles and they will be here sooner than you think. They may not be in your face on a daily basis but they will operate behind the scenes. think about large companies that uses drivers for specific duties, eg Medical couriers that pick up samples for testing and take them to a testing facility, or a coffee roasting house that sends out its fresh beans to cafes every day. Why can't this be done autonomously?

So long as you agree to walk out to the car drop it off and collect it, I don't see how this wouldn't be cheaper than a man in a van.

Building a car that doesn't need an interior will be significantly cheaper than a new vehicle and probably on par with a 2nd hand jap import. You can already buy cheap Chinese brand new cars for $15k, (Cherry J3) I very much expect a driver less, passenger less car to be half that.

There is blind optimism, and then there is this. :)

wellygary

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#1951776 5-Feb-2018 09:33

On wide well defined roads, particularly motorways and large arterials I can see limited self driving coming in the next few years,

As for small narrow streets forget about it for at least 5 years

Plus of course the insurance industry might kill it entirely if they make the car manufacturers liable for accidents.

ripdog

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#1951817 5-Feb-2018 09:55

On motorways, self driving already exists: Teslas, and I think BMWs.

The Waymo cars already work in 99% of scenarios. Hell, even more than that. The work right now is the really hard work getting the tiny tiny edge cases filed down. Ensuring the cars react well to realllly weird and unusual scenarios, and getting disengages down (scenarios where the car flips control to the driver due to it not knowing what to do, or experiencing software or hardware failure).

Of course, the big problem with Waymo cars is that they need an extremely well mapped area to function. Detailed 3d scans of every road they operate on, in order to allow them to easily distinguish between expected and unexpected objects. The maps also require manual placement of things like traffic lights. If a road has been significantly modified from the mapped version, the car will disengage and inform the mothership, so other cars will avoid that road until it's remapped.

Obviously the mapping requirement must be lifted before the car can become a worthwhile mass market product, but who knows how long that will take. Other, more reckless companies (like uber and tesla) may barrel ahead without taking all the time and care that waymo is.

Anyone interested in self-driving cars should read waymo's recently published safety report, where the go over all the work which goes into making the waymo cars safe. It's fascinating stuff: waymo-safety-report-2017.pdf

It seems waymo has started to market the technology, starting with talking about safety, and educating the public about how they work and how they will fit into society, i.e. working with emergency services. Could be pointing at the beginning of a ramp up to launch, perhaps?

tdgeek

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#1951820 5-Feb-2018 10:00

ripdog:

On motorways, self driving already exists: Teslas, and I think BMWs.

The Waymo cars already work in 99% of scenarios. Hell, even more than that. The work right now is the really hard work getting the tiny tiny edge cases filed down. Ensuring the cars react well to realllly weird and unusual scenarios, and getting disengages down (scenarios where the car flips control to the driver due to it not knowing what to do, or experiencing software or hardware failure).

Of course, the big problem with Waymo cars is that they need an extremely well mapped area to function. Detailed 3d scans of every road they operate on, in order to allow them to easily distinguish between expected and unexpected objects. The maps also require manual placement of things like traffic lights. If a road has been significantly modified from the mapped version, the car will disengage and inform the mothership, so other cars will avoid that road until it's remapped.

Obviously the mapping requirement must be lifted before the car can become a worthwhile mass market product, but who knows how long that will take. Other, more reckless companies (like uber and tesla) may barrel ahead without taking all the time and care that waymo is.

Anyone interested in self-driving cars should read waymo's recently published safety report, where the go over all the work which goes into making the waymo cars safe. It's fascinating stuff: waymo-safety-report-2017.pdf

It seems waymo has started to market the technology, starting with talking about safety, and educating the public about how they work and how they will fit into society, i.e. working with emergency services. Could be pointing at the beginning of a ramp up to launch, perhaps?

Good points but the topic is driverless (autonomous), not self driving.

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