QZ8501 goes missing Surabaya

Forums › Travel (planes, train, cruise) › QZ8501 goes missing Surabaya - Singapore

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#1213485 14-Jan-2015 03:24

Just heard on Al jazera that the CVR has been recovered. Obviously it will take some time to analyse all the data contained from the black boxes.

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#1213499 14-Jan-2015 06:35

That is good news indeed

tdgeek

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#1213619 14-Jan-2015 10:34

DarthKermit: Just heard on Al jazera that the CVR has been recovered. Obviously it will take some time to analyse all the data contained from the black boxes.

Based on Air Crash Investigation, the CVR would be quite quick to be available to listen to. The FDR longer, but not terribly long. The CVR may well answer 90% of what happened suddenly based on verbal and noises. Has to be a sudden failure IMO given that no comms occurred

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#1213631 14-Jan-2015 10:43

My wife's theory from day 1:

Struck by lightning disabling every single electronic System

tdgeek

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#1213645 14-Jan-2015 10:54

joker97: My wife's theory from day 1:

Struck by lightning disabling every single electronic System

Possibly, although aircraft are hit by strikes a lot, they are protected, but could be a severe hit perhaps.

Massive up or downdraft but hard to see that if they were avoiding the worst, and at altitude, and hard to see that causing a structural failure.

Im guessing a somehow tail failure, or wing failure.

nathan

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#1214623 14-Jan-2015 11:08

updraft/downdraft and stall is my guess

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#1214626 14-Jan-2015 11:11

nathan: updraft/downdraft and stall is my guess

Yes, well said. Stall would make sense as no need to have such as issue to cause structural failure, but a stall, especially where the winds, up/downdraft made it difficult to lower the nose to recover.

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markl

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#1214632 14-Jan-2015 11:20

nathan: updraft/downdraft and stall is my guess

Pure speculation of course, at this stage, but potentially something like a massive microburst...would have to have been something that kept the crew from informing ATC of any problems though so either something catestrophic, or something that was so serious that the pilots were too occupied with aviating to bother communicating.

turnin

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#1214639 14-Jan-2015 11:27

joker97: My wife's theory from day 1:

Struck by lightning disabling every single electronic System

no doubt including the black box itself.

frankv

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#1214655 14-Jan-2015 11:47

I don't buy the lightning strike theory. Aircraft are struck by lightning hundreds of times every day.

I think more likely is a structural failure of wings or tail, caused either by turbulence within the thunderstorm, or the flight crew's reaction to it (think AA587). Or perhaps decompression due to failure of e.g. a door or window due to turbulence.

It would be interesting to know how big an area the wreckage is spread over... a large area would indicate an in-flight breakup.

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#1214671 14-Jan-2015 11:55

CNN quote

The fuselage, or main body, of the plane is believed to have been found northeast of where the tail section was previously discovered by a ship scanning for wreckage, said Supriyadi, an operations coordinator at Indonesia's national search and rescue agency who goes by only one name.

But he said he hasn't seen the full report on the reported discovery yet -- and it hasn't been confirmed so far by the head of the search and rescue agency.

markl

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#1214698 14-Jan-2015 12:09

frankv: I don't buy the lightning strike theory. Aircraft are struck by lightning hundreds of times every day.

I think more likely is a structural failure of wings or tail, caused either by turbulence within the thunderstorm, or the flight crew's reaction to it (think AA587). Or perhaps decompression due to failure of e.g. a door or window due to turbulence.

Structural failure would be unlikely I'd have thought, chiefly because of lessons learnt from incidents like AA587...unless it was contributed to by something additional, such as poor maintenance (e.g. wrong size fasteners in use, etc).

It would be interesting to know how big an area the wreckage is spread over... a large area would indicate an in-flight breakup.

Yeah, perhaps, but remember that once it hits the water, different size, shape, and buoyancy characteristics will mean that different pieces of wreckage would sink at different rates, and drift on the current for different amounts of time as a result.. Thus it's plausible for the aircraft to have hit largely in one piece, yet the wreckage to be spread out.

DravidDavid

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#1214706 14-Jan-2015 12:26

My guess is that it was a stall and perhaps pilots were being fed incorrect information also.

I do remember hearing that talking to air traffic control comes second to wrangling the plane. It could be that they were trying to get everything under control and had no time for anything else. In which case, the CVR will answer all questions.

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#1214749 14-Jan-2015 13:13

awaiting the CVR report with bated breath

zl1fly

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#1214791 14-Jan-2015 13:49

The mentioned that according to the radar it went into a near vertical decent. So my guess is a similar situation to the Air France jet that was lost or a really strong downdraught.

Some thing similar to a micro burst that have downed planes on landing approaches in the past. But I guess until they have downloaded the blackbox data we will just be shooting in the dark.

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