2024 US Presidential election thread

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#3275824 27-Aug-2024 15:40

Georgia governor inquires whether he can remove MAGA election board members after series of alarming votes | The Independent

Here we go with more subversion via delay in Election Certification, slightly different to those Ive mentioned before that are still in there Certification roles after denying to do so previously. This is sneaky, new rules just put in demanding all Georgia counties MUST make a "reasonable inquiry" before certifying, without the rules stating what a "reasonable inquiry" means or is. The best bit, this law was approved by 3 Maga election board members (of 5 members). Georgia's (R) Governor Kemp has asked his attorney general if members can be removed from the state Election Board. Of course Trump has praised them.

Lets hope that gets fixed fast and can be isolated to Georgia, a key swing state that Harris is definitely making a play for as did Biden.

Trump and Harris clash over hot mics during presidential debate as ex-president suggests he might back out | The Independent
Trumps campaign too scared for him to debate with hot mics, worrying he can't help himself from derailing. To be fair, he can't. It will be Trump who loses this. He just has to stick to script. Im so hoping she gets him one on one, she will prosecute all his lies and nullify this mystery over his economic prowess.

Kerry Kennedy is ‘disgusted’ by her brother RFK Jr’s ‘obscene’ backing of Trump | The Independent
and this from Kerry Kennedy labelling her brother endorsing Trump as "disgusting" and backing him as "obscene". Hopefully this stays in the headlines long enough to nullify the dent it will have on the Harris campaign in some key states. But I think within a couple of weeks we should see a surge from the DNC for Harris in the polls, things have stagnated somewhat, it would be nice to see momentum indicators continue to rise over the next two to four weeks when people start cementing opinions.

Some sizeable polls from Kaplan (R) LV Harris +7, RV +4 and the Morning Consult Harris +4. It would be good to see a lift in Registered Voters, perhaps to about 8 points. Is a bit early for Polls to show impact from the DNC, maybe in a couple of days.

Current simulated Forecast (based of polling avgs). Too close to call accurate as most are well within margin of error still, but if momentum continues and she can kill the Economics/Cost of living debate...... https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2024

SaVaGE from Lawrence, but on point as usual.

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#3276582 29-Aug-2024 09:50

The November election trial of public opinion.

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TeaLeaf

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#3276658 29-Aug-2024 11:27

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

Harris is dipping, GE +3.7 down to +3.4, unfavourability up from 1.6 to 2.0.

abc experts believe RFKjr endorsing Trump and suspending his Ballot in 10 swing states will benefit Trump by circa 0.5%, which whilst not a lot, is a lot in States within which 0.5% could easily decide the outcome. Is so lame giving him an endorsement but only helping him in the battleground states.

"Opinion | Trump Can Win on Character - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
A NYT Op-ed which describes Harris "weak & phony", has raised some eyebrows but unlikely to have impacted the polls much."

She is also getting taken to task for having Walz join her for her first sit down interview with CNN (tonight but US time obviously).

Trump's advert where he has Harris debating herself on the economy will hurt. This is what her ads need to be doing.

But regardless I did expect to start seeing her go from GE plateau of ~3.7avg get a bumper from the DNC.

[Mod edit (MF): user asked to replace a paragraph with OP-ED source]

Rikkitic

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#3276713 29-Aug-2024 12:33

TeaLeaf:

NYT calling Harris a "weak/phony" and other non flattering comments wouldnt have helped much. This supposedly due to her DNC speech, which I personally thought was brilliant. Its almost like people forgot Trump had no substance and rambled incoherently for I think 60 extra minutes.

Some of your comments here are disturbingly misleading, especially when they lack context like the above. The New York Times did not call Harris weak or phony. The editor of the National Review, a right-wing publication espousing conservative views, said this in a guest opinion piece, which responsible publications like the New York Times offer to their ideological opposites from time to time in the interests of balance. Your comment makes it sound like the Times supports this opinion, which is dishonest as well as misleading and makes me wonder what your purpose here is.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

TeaLeaf

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#3276722 29-Aug-2024 13:30

Rikkitic:

The editor of the National Review, a right-wing publication espousing conservative views, said this in a guest opinion piece, which responsible publications like the New York Times offer to their ideological opposites from time to time in the interests of balance.

Yes this is true, but you have right wing summation of these quotes out there as being from the NYT, which opinion piece or not is what it is.

But yes the quotes out there (and mine) should also state from Opinion piece. I do not think the piece is likely to be big impact for the recent dip in the Harris GE poll avg.

Im simply trying analyse cause for the Harris flat line and now dip. You obviously want to be going up at this point not peaking or dropping. Given these are polls that are now post the 30million who watched the speech live and other DNC events, it is logical to expect a bump not a dip. But I also think its a little early. The next large morning consult poll should give a more accurate state of play.

The Harris $370M advertisement campaign in the 7 key swing states kicks in on the 2nd, hopefully this wrestles back some of the Economic narrative from Trump, which to be fair that recent ad against Harris economics likely had impact. I do wonder if it was largely from his strategists who are finding it hard to keep him on his two campaign narratives, rather than the rambling grievance speeches.

Rikkitic

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#3276753 29-Aug-2024 16:36

Fake and misleading information on social media is a big problem that is only getting worse, especially where politics and political campaigns are concerned. Already there are numerous troll accounts overtly or subtly trying to plant conspiracy theories or shape public opinion in one way or another. If you are a good faith actor with something serious to say, it is more important than ever to be meticulous about whatever you post. Your comment that I quoted above is an example of something designed to mislead and deceive. It deliberately creates a false impression that a highly credible and reputable news organisation like the New York Times has called Kamala Harris weak and phoney and other unflattering things. This is a very big deal with big potential consequences. If you are passing this kind of thing along from other right wing sources without verifying it then that just compounds your culpability. It is a very irresponsible thing to do. There is already enough BS on the interweb.

Kamala Harris is the vice president of the United States and a leading candidate for the presidency. The New York Times is a major media organisation with enormous influence. People who see something like your comment will be influenced by it if they don’t know better. The NYT article is behind a paywall so non-subscribers can’t verify it. This is exactly how rumours and conspiracy theories get started. A bit of cut and paste and your comment could spread all over the Web without any kind of fact checking. Suddenly millions of people are thinking the New York Times says Kamala Harris is weak and phoney and because it is the New York Times saying it, it must be true!

If you can’t take the trouble to verify if something is true or accurate, then it is better not to repeat it. There is already enough crap to wade through. Don’t make it worse.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

quickymart

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#3276765 29-Aug-2024 17:07

(37 affairs?? Really?? Is that right? 😮)

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TeaLeaf

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#3276788 29-Aug-2024 19:06

quickymart:

Is that right? 😮)

Terribly depressing QM :-(. I do not want to even research what is true or not about that whole situation.

Some brighter news (unless you support Trmp that is) Harris poll dip has ended with some rather high numbers, mostly the one source however. It could be the post DNC biting, we shall see. They then have the first sit down interview with CNN tonight, then their swing state targeted ad campaign kicks in on the 2nd, so is likely to generate some more momentum.

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#3277129 30-Aug-2024 11:42

quickymart: (37 affairs?? Really?? Is that right? 😮)

Here is an extract from a very long and detailed Wikipedia reference:

wiki - Robert F Kennedy Jr.

Marriages and children

On April 15, 1994, Kennedy married Mary Kathleen Richardson, a close friend of his sister Kerry, aboard a research vessel on the Hudson River. They had four children: Conor, Kyra, Aidan, and William.

During his marriage to Richardson, Kennedy was known among his friends for sending explicit nude photos of women that they presumed he had taken, according to Vanity Fair. He reportedly engaged in multiple affairs during the marriage. His friends later called him a "lifelong philanderer".

On May 12, 2010, Kennedy filed for divorce from Richardson. On May 16, 2012, Richardson was found dead in a building on the grounds of her home in Bedford, New York. The Westchester County Medical Examiner ruled the death a suicide due to asphyxiation from hanging.

Before her death, Richardson had discovered Kennedy's personal journal from 2001, in which he recorded sexual encounters with 37 different women.

According to Kennedy, Richardson passed the journal along "to her sisters with instructions that, if anything happened to her, [it should be] published in the press".

RFK Jr. = The Ugly American.

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TeaLeaf

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#3277178 30-Aug-2024 14:06

Sideface:

RFK Jr. = The Ugly American.

Just some bizarre and disturbing behavior in his life, so perhaps no surprise he has found common ground with Trmp?

While looking at some previews of the CNN Harris/Walz sit down interview with D Bush (due out soon), I saw this below piece and it kind of sums up how Trump handles things when put under pressure. Its misogyny overload.

Yesterday ended with Harris back to +3.5 on the GE avg, but made a huge jump from +2.0 unfavorable to now just +1.4. Quite incredible given where she started. Should be more polls out later today which may be reflective of the DNC. The generic congressional avg for Democrats also bounced back from +1.3 to +1.5.

With everything compact into these final couple of months there are pros and cons, but one of the big pros should be momentum. Harris has an edge in the mid west and a few of the sun belt battleground states, hopefully this targetted campaign in the 7 main swing states will see her consolidate some of those minor leads to outside margin of error https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls scroll down to Poll Map - Electoral College, the all polls looks better than when changing to Head to Head. Im hoping they have some good ads that will stick and wrestle the narrative.

quickymart

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#3277260 30-Aug-2024 19:04

Merely a typo, but still... https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-typo_n_66d12698e4b0c8d61a38609a

TeaLeaf

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#3277272 30-Aug-2024 20:33

quickymart:

Merely a typo, but still.

But what I liked most on that post of yours was people calling out his false accusations at the end. ABC need a live AI fact checker for the debate to keep up with him haha jks ;-p

He is having a flurry of bad headlines today as has Vance with the booing firefighters in Boston JD Vance booed by firefighters union one day after they welcomed Walz: ‘Sounds like we got some haters’ | The Independent

Trumps last go at avoiding sentencing on the hush money case Trump urges federal court to throw out hush money verdict in last-ditch attempt to avoid sentence | The Independent

While Jack Smith is prob looking at the Nat Sec Docs case in Florida (if he wins the appeal to reopen it) and this election interference as long term, no doubt Trump will use "delay" should he lose the election. Some say he will live out his life as a defendant, only time will tell how accurate that will be. Trump faces new indictment in election interference case after Supreme Court immunity ruling | The Independent

These new Morning Consult polls taken in battleground states with and without 3rd parties is interesting. Either way Harris is in a strong position in most and interesting to see a Tie in North Carolina. The current Electoral College map "head to head" shows her in a good position, of course its just a simulation based on polls.
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

I thought she spoke confidently in the first interview, if she keeps the narrative to values, with policy examples on tap, I think she should do well.
Part one to three if you missed it. I think the pnel sums it up well in the post discussion "‘Extraordinary’: Dana Bash describes interview", worth a watch too.
https://www.youtube.com/@CNN/videos

quickymart

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#3277348 31-Aug-2024 08:48

A couple of this week's election-based cartoons:

kingdragonfly

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#3277351 31-Aug-2024 09:09

Before assuming office, Vance opposed the federal protection for gay and interracial marriages, stating that the efforts were a “bizarre distraction” from other issues.

Vance has also defended his use of the word “groomer,” often used as a slur by conservatives to describe LGBTQ people and their allies. “I’ll stop calling people ‘groomers’ when they stop freaking out about bills that prevent the sexualization of my children,”

New Zealand citizen Peter Thiel was a former boss of Vance.

"The Advocate" is pro-LGBTQ+ news.

The Advocate: JD Vance wants gay tech billionaire Peter Thiel to fund Trump-Vance campaign

JD Vance, former President Donald Trump’s running mate, wants gay tech billionaire Peter Thiel, who’s also Vance’s former boss, to help finance the Trump-Vance campaign.
...
“I’m going to keep on talking to Peter and persuading him that — you know he’s obviously been exhausted by politics a little bit — but he’s going to be really exhausted by politics if we lose and if Kamala Harris is president,” Vance said in the interview.

“He is fundamentally a conservative guy, and I think that he needs to get off the sidelines and support the ticket,” Vance added.

Thiel spoke at the 2016 Republican National Convention in support of Trump and contributed $1.25 million to his campaign. But Thiel did not donate to Trump in 2020 and has said he wouldn’t fund any candidates in the 2024 election, noting that he’d been disappointed in Trump’s presidency.
,,,

kingdragonfly

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#3277353 31-Aug-2024 09:17

Trump VP Vance - Peter Thiel theme song

Eminem - Stan

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