Her integrity just keeps on shining through! If only there were more conservatives like this.

A few election-related stories I found today:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/trump-harris-polls-battleground-states-00177286

^ again, it's only a few polls and she doesn't a hell of a massive lead. But it's something. Mind you, at this point in 2016 Hillary was well outpolling Trump, and, well...we all know how that ended.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-fear-factor-is-now-hurting-trump/ar-AA1q0kMV?cvid=aafb1d4c81cf40e68b6acd02b6aa4f33&ei=38

^ from The Washington Post. A majority of people view the orange buffoon negatively, and a fairly sizeable portion view him as "extreme". Could Harris maybe use this to her advantage?

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/harris-separate-biden-economy-trump/index.html

^ Harris is trying to separate herself from a lot of Biden's economic policies, and boy is it p-----g Trump off 😀

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/04/kamala-harris-republicans-after-trump-00177194

Interesting take on it - if Harris wins, the Republicans might just be able to regroup and (finally) move on from the orange buffoon.

Seriously, if he loses this year, I highly doubt he'll run in 2028 (if he makes it that far).

The founding members of the Losers club have been at it again.

Trump says Musk could head 'government efficiency' force - BBC News

Ive been waiting for a morning consult poll, one came out today 11414 LV's has Harris 49% Trump 46% head to head. 

Harris has been up and down from her peak of +3.7, now +3.1. Experts said RFKjr pulling out on the 10 battleground states would have an impact of only +0.5%.

So perhaps the change is about on point.

Other smaller polls have Harris up as much as +6 at 51% including Indies & +4 at 52% head to head. But +3-4% range seems realistic at this point. Essentially its down to whomever drops the political football ie the debate, possibly advertising.

However Favorability polls have Harris at an avg of just +0.3 unfavorable and Trump has lost ground and now at +9.7 unfavorable. This is good momentum polling.

Generic congressional ballot avg (which party ppl want in congress) is at +2.6 for Democrats. Interestingly the Republicans took a sizeable dip (~0.8%) noticeable on the chart, it appears around the Arlington fiasco (the dip shows up on the 30th), but hard to say for sure.  Generic ballot : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

Last I looked (yesterday) Harris currently holds an estimated 50% with the Youth vote. Of interest is what interests them which is very different to older voters. Its not Obama percentages but its about numbers, Ive listened to analysis state if they turn out to vote, it will decide the election, in reference to swing states. 

A lot of this work with getting youth engaged is thanks to the Gen Z congressman (D) Maxwell Frost - Florida.  

Pennsylvania is still way too tight imo. Which is why I thought not taking Shapiro could be a mistake at the time.

Hold onto your hats its going to be close :-)

quickymart:

 

Seriously, if he loses this year, I highly doubt he'll run in 2028 (if he makes it that far).

 

If he loses and tries again at 82yo, presuming hes not behind bars, would he even get any interest from his party.....

This is why this election is about Democracy, not just for democrats, but to heal the GOP, which from memory is still 70% traditional Reagan ethics types. The country needs both parties functional for bipartisan to work. Fingers crossed.

What do people think will happen if Harris wins by a narrow margin, or any margin? The courts will be overwhelmed with appeals and litigation. There will be riots around the country. Armed militias will pop up in places like Mar-a-Lago to defend their dear leader from arrest and other indignities. I doubt there will be an actual revolution but there will almost certainly be major civil unrest (and an actual revolution can't be completely ruled out!). 

If Harris loses (god forbid!) something similar will probably take place. Harris supporters are convinced that another Trump presidency would mean the end of everything they hold dear. They are unlikely to take it lying down. I fear there will be blood in the streets and chaos at the top regardless of what happens. Only a landslide win by one side or the other might prevent this kind of thing, and that certainly doesn't seem likely. A narrow victory either way is only going to convince the loser that the other side cheated. It isn't going to be pretty.

Rikkitic:

 

 A narrow victory either way is only going to convince the loser that the other side cheated. It isn't going to be pretty.

 

Totally agree, even worse it will likely be drawn out chaos, which could lead to Us vs Them scenario. 

its going to take a hell of a lot to more to make sure this is beyond margin of error which would be minimum, it really does need a landslide

Jack Smith will use both statements from the recent Trump interview where he admits he "lost by a whisker" but that he also had a "right to interfere". Those will be in the Submission on the 26th with Chutkin seemingly not buying into delay tactics or consideration for the election.

Before this the sentencing for the 34 felonies. The timing is good, to remind people, presuming the judge rules in favor of the people.

I think the Debate is key, in many ways. Harris is smarter and able to counter his advertising narrative. But mostly she wants to get him completely unhinged looking crazed, but without Hot mics Im not sure its possible.

One thing Im surprised in the Harris campaign has not been attacking his plethora of Gaffes, seemingly incoherent babble and just age related concerns in general. Perhaps its yet to come.

But something major has to occur to get this to a landslide and its something, or a number of things he does. They would have to be major given what the country seems to just let slide with him.

The depressing thing is, a lot of this division and negativity and "us vs them" bs is a result of the orange buffoon.

Sure, he didn't start it - but he's sure as hell not helping anything, painting the other side as the worst possible choice any American could make, and he is the only answer to all their problems. Yet he isn't. As I've said before, Trump is only in it for one person - Trump, and maybe his family and cronies; everyone else = he couldn't care less.

Having said that, Allan Lichtman (see earlier in the thread) has finally released his prediction for this year's election:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/05/harris-election-allan-lichtman

Putting post election to the side for a sec.

This election is 100% Voter Turnout. 

Harris generated a lot of new volunteers on top of the pre existing base, this is the door to door stuff. 

From what Im reading mailboxes are already overflowing and people have campaign ad fatigue in some places.

Where Trump matched Harris spending in Pennsylvania (and I think Michigan) of around $50M now. Conversely in the other swing states the last I saw was Harris had out spent near ten to one.

Harris it appears is opening up the Sun belt, just in case Shapiro's Pennsylvania goes Trump, right not its literally 50:50

So its prob going to come down to, who has the better grass roots campaign and who can motivate the most to get out and vote, which is where ads need to be psychologically motivating. 

I just get this feeling it could be the youth who decide this one, mostly female, its the start of their future. Motivation could be high.

Mehdi Hasan explains Trump provided weapons and support for the deaths of 100,000 people in Yemen and throws in a few more Trump term facts

Rikkitic: [..] if Harris wins by a narrow margin, or any margin? The courts will be overwhelmed with appeals and litigation. There will be riots around the country. Armed militias will pop up in places like Mar-a-Lago to defend their dear leader from arrest and other indignities. I doubt there will be an actual revolution but there will almost certainly be major civil unrest (and an actual revolution can't be completely ruled out!).

It has to be a worry. Realistically a Trump 2024 loss is likely to be less eventful than 2020. Trump has no Pence to pin his threats on.

quickymart: Seriously, if he loses this year, I highly doubt he'll run in 2028 (if he makes it that far).

Tealeaf: If he loses and tries again at 82yo, presuming hes not behind bars, would he even get any interest from his party.....

Trump will not let go of the Republican Party if he loses this election. Trump will remain popular enough to hold it and Trump won't let go as long as it's making money for him which it will continue to do.

Oh he'll hold it, for sure - but (as I said before) it's a bit rich for him to be banging on about Biden's age as he was earlier this year, and then trying to run again himself (for a 4th time) as an 82-year old.

Having said that, if he does make it to 2028 and tries to run again, I think the losses would be quite significant. Lately I've seen a lot of commentary on a possible mental decline. If true, it's only going to get worse as he gets older (which is quite normal for a number of elderly people).

quickymart:

 

but (as I said before) it's a bit rich for him...

 

As if he would worry about what people think.

A couple of election-related cartoons for this week:

Also - I'll just leave this here: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/06/johnson-gop-congress-white-house-00177778

Confident, isn't he?