Our PM Jacinda Ardern (and the government)

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#2679332 23-Mar-2021 15:29

SJB:

Something like 85% of landlords only have 1 rental property. Can't see many of those exiting if things like the Healthy Homes changes didn't make them exit. So I can't see many rentals becoming available for FHB.

I've seen several governments in 2 countries try and make houses more affordable and it's never had any effect over an extended period. I have no reason to think that these measures will be any different.

People who want to live in New York or Washington pay a lot of money for the privilege. I really fail to see why Auckland or Wellington should be any different.

I can see that. NZ is expensive all over, starting with nearby towns and expanding. The affordability won't change they have stated that the target is to stem the increase. Do these two countries have well priced home outside of the key main centres?

GV27

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#2679373 23-Mar-2021 16:09

SJB:

People who want to live in New York or Washington pay a lot of money for the privilege. I really fail to see why Auckland or Wellington should be any different.

Is Auckland 20% better than it was a year ago as a place to live? Have salaries increased by 20%?

The idea that suddenly Auckland should be unaffordable for the bulk of the people who are born in it because "other mega-cities are expensive" is perverse.

SJB

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#2679402 23-Mar-2021 16:42

GV27:

SJB:

People who want to live in New York or Washington pay a lot of money for the privilege. I really fail to see why Auckland or Wellington should be any different.

Is Auckland 20% better than it was a year ago as a place to live? Have salaries increased by 20%?

The idea that suddenly Auckland should be unaffordable for the bulk of the people who are born in it because "other mega-cities are expensive" is perverse.

I thought Auckland prices had stagnated over the last year.

SJB

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#2679407 23-Mar-2021 16:47

tdgeek:

SJB:

Something like 85% of landlords only have 1 rental property. Can't see many of those exiting if things like the Healthy Homes changes didn't make them exit. So I can't see many rentals becoming available for FHB.

I've seen several governments in 2 countries try and make houses more affordable and it's never had any effect over an extended period. I have no reason to think that these measures will be any different.

People who want to live in New York or Washington pay a lot of money for the privilege. I really fail to see why Auckland or Wellington should be any different.

I can see that. NZ is expensive all over, starting with nearby towns and expanding. The affordability won't change they have stated that the target is to stem the increase. Do these two countries have well priced home outside of the key main centres?

I would assume the US has as it's such a large country. In the UK they are more affordable but you would have to move away from the south east altogether probably because it is really one large conurbation.

GV27

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#2679409 23-Mar-2021 16:47

SJB:

I thought Auckland prices had stagnated over the last year.

Steady increases in the median multiple since August 2019

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples

And yes, that chart shows an Auckland premium, but a premium which is 4x median household income is a much different proposition to one that costs 10x the median income.

Handle9

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#2679410 23-Mar-2021 16:47

networkn:

I wonder if peoples trust in Ardern will be eroded with her effectively introducing tax by stealth. She was adamant no CGT and now we have CGT effectively.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/03/tova-o-brien-jacinda-ardern-and-the-mother-of-all-broken-promises.html

Some National MP’s complaining that they wouldn’t have Party voted Labour if they had known about the extension to the National Party’s bright line policy.

networkn

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#2679411 23-Mar-2021 16:47

GV27:

The idea that suddenly Auckland should be unaffordable for the bulk of the people who are born in it because "other mega-cities are expensive" is perverse.

Well, it's not more expensive because... magic. It's more expensive for many reasons. I mean really, you can't just keep ignoring that peoples insistence on living here isn't creating pressure. It's basic economics, demand increases prices.

If it was a horrible place to live, people wouldn't move here in droves and then prices wouldn't have risen so steadily.

Immigration have taken some steps in the right direction, by giving people seeking permission to live here from overseas, less points toward their ticket, if they live in a major city. The lady who was helping us last year has decided to move to Dunedin as a result.

Samsung

Shop now on Samsung phones, tablets, TVs and more (affiliate link).

SJB

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#2679468 23-Mar-2021 18:37

Trouble is only 1 in a hundred want to or can live in Dunedin, 1 in 1000 for Invercargill and 1 in 10000 for Timaru.

You need to ban all inward migration to the major centres for a number of years. Force businesses and people out to the provinces over a long period of time. Tinkering like today will achieve nothing.

Unfortunately, with politicians only really concerned with their job prospects after the next election (which is never more than 3 years away), nothing will change because the measures that are necessary would see them voted out.

GV27

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#2679571 24-Mar-2021 06:32

networkn:

If it was a horrible place to live, people wouldn't move here in droves and then prices wouldn't have risen so steadily.

The fact there are employment opportunities here that there aren't elsewhere doesn't change the fact that commuting is abysmal, state and council investment in infrastructure has failed to keep up with population growth over the last two decades and yes, we may have beaches everywhere, but good luck getting near one on a summer's day.

As for prices rising steadily; successive generations have managed to limit planner's abilities to upzone central areas. Not only can we not add meaningful supply, investors make up a huge portion of the market for existing houses. It is a perfect storm, and one that has been brewing a lot longer than the situation in Wellington. Funnily enough, we finally got some action from the government when that started becoming an issue.

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#2679608 24-Mar-2021 08:48

GV27:

The fact there are employment opportunities here that there aren't elsewhere doesn't change the fact that commuting is abysmal

You should try living in the south east of England and commuting to London. Travel is by cattle truck quality trains and they charge you mortgage level amounts for the privilege. The roads are choked and you can spend hours going nowhere.

Commuting anywhere in NZ is easy by comparison.

networkn

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#2679614 24-Mar-2021 09:11

GV27:

networkn:

If it was a horrible place to live, people wouldn't move here in droves and then prices wouldn't have risen so steadily.

The fact there are employment opportunities here that there aren't elsewhere doesn't change the fact that commuting is abysmal, state and council investment in infrastructure has failed to keep up with population growth over the last two decades and yes, we may have beaches everywhere, but good luck getting near one on a summer's day.

As for prices rising steadily; successive generations have managed to limit planner's abilities to upzone central areas. Not only can we not add meaningful supply, investors make up a huge portion of the market for existing houses. It is a perfect storm, and one that has been brewing a lot longer than the situation in Wellington. Funnily enough, we finally got some action from the government when that started becoming an issue.

It's well and good punishing speculators for flipping property, but supply and demand rules apply here. IMO the Government should have been focused on easing supply, incentivising business to move out of the larger cities and enabling the workforces to work efficiently remotely. Whatever they offered in taxation incentives, interest-free land, or outright grants, would be a rounding error on infrastructure costs in any major city in NZ.

GV27

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#2679885 24-Mar-2021 16:52

networkn:

It's well and good punishing speculators for flipping property, but supply and demand rules apply here. IMO the Government should have been focused on easing supply, incentivising business to move out of the larger cities and enabling the workforces to work efficiently remotely. Whatever they offered in taxation incentives, interest-free land, or outright grants, would be a rounding error on infrastructure costs in any major city in NZ.

The government has been adding tens of thousands more people each year than it can house, and most end up in the cities. I'd suggest that congestion in Auckland is so bad that anyone who can work remotely already has a major incentive to do so.

While yes, it would be great if businesses or people can relocate, that shouldn't get the government off the hook for actually providing the infrastructure to meet the population pressure that they've created. You'll struggle to generate buy-in for things like paying tax if the government can put off paying infrastructure until it can say "too hard, sorry, have you considered just leaving?".

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#2680927 26-Mar-2021 10:21

GV27:

SJB:

People who want to live in New York or Washington pay a lot of money for the privilege. I really fail to see why Auckland or Wellington should be any different.

Is Auckland 20% better than it was a year ago as a place to live? Have salaries increased by 20%?

The idea that suddenly Auckland should be unaffordable for the bulk of the people who are born in it because "other mega-cities are expensive" is perverse.

Obviously yes, it is 20% better, or the market wouldn't bear it.

networkn

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#2680930 26-Mar-2021 10:25

GV27:

The government has been adding tens of thousands more people each year than it can house, and most end up in the cities. I'd suggest that congestion in Auckland is so bad that anyone who can work remotely already has a major incentive to do so.

I don't disagree with your sentiment that immigration exceeds infrastructure. I do however think that whilst our congestion is bad by NZ standards, you probably need to spend some time living overseas to see what 'real' congestion is like.

It's like when people say Kiwi's live in poverty, it's simply not an accurate statement compared to 'real' poverty you see overseas. Interestingly, poverty as far as the Government is concerned is those living in the bottom 10% of the population, and with a measure like that you can't 'cure' poverty.

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#2680969 26-Mar-2021 11:15

What you seem to be saying is our poor people should be grateful for their poverty because it could always be worse. Not sure I agree with that!

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