It's never "the right time to talk about guns" with Republicans.

They're deplorables.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/donald-trump-looks-excite-white-small-town-base-wisconsin-rally-2024-09-07/

He repeatedly presented migrants as a grave danger to Wisconsin, warning without evidence that immigrants in the country illegally could evict local residents from their homes.

How the hell does that one work, I wonder? 🤔

The NY Times - Trump avoids sentencing before Election Day

today

The judge who presided over Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan postponed Trump’s sentencing until after Election Day, guaranteeing that the American people will vote without knowing whether Trump, the first former president convicted as a felon, will spend time behind bars. ...

 

Despite his legal troubles, Trump has enjoyed remarkably resilient support. 

 

A national poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College found Trump narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 48 percent to 47 percent.

 

The results are in line with polls in the pivotal battleground states, where Harris is tied with Trump or holds slim leads, according to New York Times polling averages.

 

Delaying Trump's sentencing (yet again) was unsurprising - but what I find astonishing is that the polls are still so close, despite sidelining Biden.  😦

From 538 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/):

I'm surprised (and depressed) that it's even this close. Harris is holding steady while the orange buffoon (somehow) seems to be very slowly climbing.

But for comparison, this is how things looked around this time in 2016:

Like I said, we all remember what happened next 😢

quickymart:

 

From 538 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/):

 

I'm surprised (and depressed) that it's even this close. Harris is holding steady while the orange buffoon (somehow) seems to be very slowly climbing.

 

But for comparison, this is how things looked around this time in 2016:

 

Like I said, we all remember what happened next 😢

 

To Be honest, unless the gap is more than 5 points, National polls in the US are not really worth anything, 

In the popular vote  in 2016  Clinton beat Trump 48.2% to 46.1%  ,

its the swing states that are important, more people voting for Harris in California or New York wont change the outcome, but more votes in marginal states will... 

wellygary:

 

its the swing states that are important, more people voting for Harris in California or New York wont change the outcome, but more votes in marginal states will... 

 

This is quite true, and I agree with you - more people voting for her in, say, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania probably helps her more.

I did find this and the swing states (somehow) look quite close, although I don't think they should be; as in, how can so many people be so wrong as to keep supporting a felon?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html

Pity the election isn't today.

quickymart:

 

I did find this and the swing states (somehow) look quite close

 

Use Race to the WH, better than 538 for detail (others too like Real Clear Polling too offer other benefits)

Sticking to Race to the WH you will see some useful stuff there, ie Polling Lead Snapshot - Swing States, for the curent avgs which have narrowed, although have Harris back to the lead (within margin of error, although avg) in Penn. 

30 Most Recently Added Polls, yougov have just added their latest swing state polls you can see there which I think are pretty much on the money ie Harris leads but the gap has closed.

as I mentioned the other day with the Congressionall poll (who people want to see in Congress House) on the 538 site, Repubs took a massive drop (given it being avg) of -0.8 between after the 1st Sept putting Democrats at ~+2.7 lead.

If you go back to the Race to the WH site and scroll down to Trend Line - Electoral College, in similar time frame, conversely, Democrats (Harris)/Trump gap has closed around a similar date 1-5th Sept. Harris still holds a lead, but its narrow, a lot of them have become essentially a coin toss ie Trump Arizona +0.5%, Georgia +.02% N.Carolina +0.4%

This is of course just my opinion as a non pollster, when looking at polls its important to take into consideration many things but for birds eye their accuracy/rating, do they lean Red or Blue, the sample size (when I look at the pop vote I look at the morning consult ones as they often ~11500 voters) and what type of voter (RV, LV etc), very important is Party participation %. You can drill down on polls where it says "Full List of Polls"

Edit: It appears Trump and co have stepped up the spending on ads recently, considerably. as of the 25/08/24, graph broken into states at bottom  https://www.npr.org/2024/08/27/g-s1-19636/trump-ad-spending-harris

IMO his TV presence is out stripping her with just the one sit down interview. Id be trying to fit in as many of those as I can imo. 

I suggest looking at their campaign ads on YT to form your own opinion, there is a chap who has posted a playlist. Trumps ads imo whilst often out of context or simply Hyperbole, are more targetted at Harris making her look incompetent. Whilst Harris started out well, I find her ads do not spell out who Trump is enough, almost like they are hoping the swing state voters who decide this will just remember. Her ads do a fair job of pointing out her vision, where Trumps are mostly about the opposition rather than what he will do.

One thing I do not think has been said enough, which was mentioned on msnbc for ten mins a couple nights ago is Trumps age and mental fitness, given how hard they went at Biden over his. 

So Harris has more ads, but which tactic is winning? Trump has many more sit down interviews and pressers where Harris is doing lots of Rallies, which is more effective?

I was thinking his sentencing would have an impact, whilst he will be sentenced as neither candidate or president is what I guess the judge thought to be the most fair. But the evidence in the Georgia case is still being presented before election day?

It could come down to the Debate and depending on how it goes will Trump bite at another.......

TeaLeaf:

It could come down to the Debate and depending on how it goes will Trump bite at another.......

 

To be honest, US politics is so polarised at the moment, things like debates are significantly less important than they used to be. 

I think that it will basically come down to turnout, with each side needing to get as many of their supporters to go and vote....

If your candidate is being an idiot, I think the days of you voting for the "other" side are over,

You're simply likely to just stay home or only vote in the Congress/local races...

As some wise individual said, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. Until then I will focus my attention on important things like enjoying the spring sunshine outside on my deck.

wellygary:

 

I think that it will basically come down to turnout, with each side needing to get as many of their supporters to go and vote....

 

If your candidate is being an idiot, I think the days of you voting for the "other" side are over,

 

You're simply likely to just stay home or only vote in the Congress/local races...

 

This is so true. although there is a metric for that, there are so many things that fall threw polls. and in a close one like this, voter turn out is everything. That is where I wonder if the Democrats Grass Roots swell might be larger than any of us know. Of course, it could go the other way.

Clinton many say lost because people thought it was a done deal so no need to turn up to vote, I think the Dem messaging this time has been very much about turn up to vote.

I forget the guys name, but he was on MSNBC the other night, he was convinced if the Youth turn out to vote Harris will win. But the oldies. you know for the most part they turn up and vote. which gives Trump an edge.

wellygary:

 

To be honest, US politics is so polarised at the moment, things like debates are significantly less important than they used to be. 

 

Eh? Clearly the Biden - Trump debate was as important as it gets.