The Future and Software, interesting read

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#1778441 9-May-2017 13:30

Elon Musk is on record saying universal income is the way to go.

Several European countries are beginning large trials.

Personally i tend to think we will blunder along without changing much.

Universal income aside, China will be an interesting case dealing with these issues. The government there has demonstrated a clear ability to plan long term.

tdgeek

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#1778444 9-May-2017 13:30

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

The thread is about if and when automation and software vastly take over humans working. The article gave many examples of how that can happen. Its not a movement towards a political issue, its how do we maintain the balance of having a currency that is earned by working and spent on goods, if the humans have no need or place to work

History has shown that advances in technology either increases jobs or shifts job focus. If the World was to see a big shift to large scale job losses due to increased automation this would very much be a political issue. The impact on our society would make the Great Depression and the GFC look like speed wobbles.

Everything is political. The article suggested the many things that can reduce labour requirements. Thats happening now, and has been for a long time, and its ramping up. New jobs get created, lost jibs work elsewhere, but the issue, is if there is a steady decrease in jobs, then over time there will;l be steady unemployment. And ultimately very low employment.

The question is how to manage that, apart from upheaval and wars. Right now we have a stable level of jibs and income. Should the world be so good at automating, it will be a far more efficient place to be, and more free time. But the cashflow between workers and employers and the financials that go with that will change. So how do we manage that change so we enjoy the fruits of this, and where the people have purchasing power?

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#1778451 9-May-2017 13:35

gzt: Elon Musk is on record saying universal income is the way to go.

Several European countries are beginning large trials.

Personally i tend to think we will blunder along without changing much.

Universal income aside, China will be an interesting case dealing with these issues. The government there has demonstrated a clear ability to plan long term.

Thats it. This problem is occurring now, but it gets absorbed into unemployment, new job creation, hard times, recession. We need to evaluate employment over many many years in each industry. We will work it out as its slow. However, they article showed how this could be ramping up, then "slowly over time" dissent wash if the jobs per 100,000 people reduce consistently every year.

Its just a numbers game. if you looked at an economy with x people, x jobs, x companies producing goods, tax take, etc, it all works.

So just remove the wage bill, add that to the tax bill and the same numbers still apply, they have just been moved. And although "I get 48 weeks holiday" and geese my company tax bill has rocketed up" seem impossible to accept, but its not that difficult.

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#1778461 9-May-2017 13:41

Universal income is already being trialled in Canada. I think they have rolled it out in one or two provinces, or parts of provinces. I don't have the link at hand but will look for it.

New Zealand used to be a pioneer in this kind of daring innovation, such as giving women the vote. Now not so much. Our leaders have become followers, usually of Australia. Hopefully a government with more spine will come along before it is too late.

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#1778463 9-May-2017 13:44

Here is one. There are many more.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ontario-canada-largest-province-launch-universal-basic-income-trial-kathleen-wynne-a7701451.html

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#1778480 9-May-2017 13:57

Rikkitic:

Instead of paying the human wages, Heart Attack Heaven pays a levy (call it a tax if you prefer) for being allowed to have the robot replacement.

Bill Gates proposed something similar. I'm not sure I agree; To quote from the American Revolution: No taxation without representation.

I believe that HAH and other corporates would become the major source of income for the Govt, and consequently would have an excessive say in what the Govt did.

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#1778490 9-May-2017 14:12

to provide a living income of say $600 per week the government would need close to two thirds of GDP to fund just that. Now add on infrastructure, health, defence.......... NZ would need a considerable growth rate to even come close. Automation does not create a pot of gold.

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#1778492 9-May-2017 14:16

It is being trialled elsewhere. I don't know the details but they must think they have some way of making it pay. Maybe you are not casting your net wide enough.

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#1778493 9-May-2017 14:17

Rikkitic:

It is being trialled elsewhere. I don't know the details but they must think they have some way of making it pay. Maybe you are not casting your net wide enough.

I think its called North Korea

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#1778494 9-May-2017 14:22

MikeB4:

to provide a living income of say $600 per week the government would need close to two thirds of GDP to fund just that. Now add on infrastructure, health, defence.......... NZ would need a considerable growth rate to even come close. Automation does not create a pot of gold.

The cost of a robot, amortized over its lifetime, must be less than the cost of the worker(s) that it replaces. (Otherwise why replace the workers?) So the business owner increases his profit. I think it's fair that a proportion of that increased profit goes to pay for the workers that are displaced.

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#1778495 9-May-2017 14:24

MikeB4:

to provide a living income of say $600 per week the government would need close to two thirds of GDP to fund just that. Now add on infrastructure, health, defence.......... NZ would need a considerable growth rate to even come close. Automation does not create a pot of gold.

I think your over thinking this. Right now, everyone works, earns a living, pays some to Govt to run the country, spends the rest on living.

Automation could, but shouldn't change that. If the wages disappear to machines, that creates a hole, and everything grinds to a halt. Who paid the wages before,

will have to pay them again. Not as per last weeks wages sheets, but as per a shift in taxation to put the burden back to the employer as tax, then pay a universal wage

That is the easiest means as the economic infrastructure remains the same.

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#1778497 9-May-2017 14:25

frankv:

MikeB4:

to provide a living income of say $600 per week the government would need close to two thirds of GDP to fund just that. Now add on infrastructure, health, defence.......... NZ would need a considerable growth rate to even come close. Automation does not create a pot of gold.

The cost of a robot, amortized over its lifetime, must be less than the cost of the worker(s) that it replaces. (Otherwise why replace the workers?) So the business owner increases his profit. I think it's fair that a proportion of that increased profit goes to pay for the workers that are displaced.

Which the company will need to recover in order to retain ROI

Rikkitic

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#1778520 9-May-2017 14:56

MikeB4:

Rikkitic:

It is being trialled elsewhere. I don't know the details but they must think they have some way of making it pay. Maybe you are not casting your net wide enough.

I think its called North Korea

No, actually it is called Canada, Finland, The Netherlands, Kenya and India, to name a few.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/can-a-universal-basic-income-work-another-country-is-giving-it-a-go

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frankv

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#1778527 9-May-2017 15:01

MikeB4:

frankv:

MikeB4:

to provide a living income of say $600 per week the government would need close to two thirds of GDP to fund just that. Now add on infrastructure, health, defence.......... NZ would need a considerable growth rate to even come close. Automation does not create a pot of gold.

The cost of a robot, amortized over its lifetime, must be less than the cost of the worker(s) that it replaces. (Otherwise why replace the workers?) So the business owner increases his profit. I think it's fair that a proportion of that increased profit goes to pay for the workers that are displaced.

Which the company will need to recover in order to retain ROI

I was thinking that the calculated lifetime cost of the robot would include the cost of borrowing to buy the robot (both interest and capital) so that there is no investment, hence no need for a ROI.

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#1778633 9-May-2017 17:51

Freight will be in for huge changes, trucks driving along highways that drop their trailers at distribution hubs for actual drivers to then pickup and do the more skilled city driving etc. Thats a heap of jobs will will be gone in a few decades.

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