Electricity spot pricing

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63 posts

Master Geek

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#3269751 9-Aug-2024 10:28

wellygary:

But the biggest driver is the lack of rain in the South Island, which has happened on a regular basis since when ever, under both nationalised and privatised power networks.

AND for those who can remember, in 1992 when we still had a Nationalised power Network we suffered with government Mandated Brownouts

I also remember the 1990's power rationing in Auckland, cold hot water (off 19 hours per day), two out of every three street lights off at night, and then the remaining lights off after midnight.

Consider the current level of Lake Taupo. If there's no significant rain or snow melt in the catchment, and consent to take the lake below the minimum level cannot be obtained, then hydro generation on the Waikato River power stations, including Huntly, could be badly affected in the near future, leading to power shortages for the North Island, especially if the same downward trend of storage with the South Island lakes continues.

High(er) spot prices could be around for quite a while, perhaps including rolling blackouts.

Source: https://www.mercury.co.nz/about-us/renewable-energy/hydro-generation/lake-levels

jrdobbs

106 posts

Master Geek

#3269755 9-Aug-2024 10:35

wellygary:

Pubs closed early; TVNZ and TV3 moved their nightly close-down time forward by an hour or so; an interisland ferry hooked its generators to the national grid and the Government looked at cloud-seeding options from Australia.

Well at least these days theres a power saving with TVNZ/TV3 - nobody watches them. Shortland Street is a complete waste of power from start to finish.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#3269759 9-Aug-2024 10:41

geek3001:

I also remember the 1990's power rationing in Auckland, cold hot water (off 19 hours per day), two out of every three street lights off at night, and then the remaining lights off after midnight.

Consider the current level of Lake Taupo. If there's no significant rain or snow melt in the catchment, and consent to take the lake below the minimum level cannot be obtained, then hydro generation on the Waikato River power stations, including Huntly, could be badly affected in the near future, leading to power shortages for the North Island, especially if the same downward trend of storage with the South Island lakes continues.

High(er) spot prices could be around for quite a while, perhaps including rolling blackouts.

Yesterday Transpower issued a consultation document (responses due in a week) on allowing access to the consented "emergency reserves" in the Southern Lakes

- Nothing so far on Taupo or the Waikato- but given the likely politics I suspect they simply won't bother

https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/bulk-upload/documents/August2024_ERCBufferDraftDecision.pdf?VersionId=91I9Nis5bl8syLw4I9dZppoKCZ1mhsbp

Scott3

3963 posts

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#3269771 9-Aug-2024 11:00

geek3001:

wellygary:

But the biggest driver is the lack of rain in the South Island, which has happened on a regular basis since when ever, under both nationalised and privatised power networks.

AND for those who can remember, in 1992 when we still had a Nationalised power Network we suffered with government Mandated Brownouts

I also remember the 1990's power rationing in Auckland, cold hot water (off 19 hours per day), two out of every three street lights off at night, and then the remaining lights off after midnight.

Consider the current level of Lake Taupo. If there's no significant rain or snow melt in the catchment, and consent to take the lake below the minimum level cannot be obtained, then hydro generation on the Waikato River power stations, including Huntly, could be badly affected in the near future, leading to power shortages for the North Island, especially if the same downward trend of storage with the South Island lakes continues.

High(er) spot prices could be around for quite a while, perhaps including rolling blackouts.

Source: https://www.mercury.co.nz/about-us/renewable-energy/hydro-generation/lake-levels

Don't pay too much attention to Taupo. Nominal full is ~329 GWh.

Nominal full for NZ as a whole is ~4,500 GWh.

Good graphs on the first and last page here:

ERC Update Log - July 2024.pdf (transpower.co.nz)

Bluntj

556 posts

Ultimate Geek

#3269832 9-Aug-2024 11:33

Ban electric cars :P

Mehrts

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#3269834 9-Aug-2024 11:40

Bluntj:

Ban electric cars :P

I know that's satire, but too many people actually think that EVs are the sole cause of power shortages...
Even though the vast majority are charged overnight during the cheaper off-peak period when there is excess generational capacity available.

rb99

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#3269840 9-Aug-2024 11:59

Ban fridges without doors. OK, one of my many pet hates, but shops full of fridges and freezers without doors making everything cold and fighting aircon trying to warm the place up. And shops with the doors permanently open with, again, aircon trying to warm the place up.

“The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” -John Kenneth Galbraith

rb99

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billgates

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#3269842 9-Aug-2024 12:02

As much as I would love to switch to Flick for high spot pricing to get some good credits $ from my solar PV, they can change there pricing with a 30 days notice period so it's too risky to switch for very short term gain. My current locked in rate for both unit and daily charge with Meridian for 5 years on there solar PV plan is good and I suspect come 1st April next year when electricity prices are reviewed by all retailers and wholesalers, my locked in rate will be lower or same compared to other companies and the next 4 years after that is when I can really reap the benefits of the locked in rate. Still couple of years atleast from getting a Solar battery storage system added to our PV system so until then, I would love it if there are no rolling blackouts please.

Do whatever you want to do man.

ezbee

2405 posts

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#3269847 9-Aug-2024 12:27

Ban Winter

That was easy job done.

Problem is that markets are terrible for anything that has highly variable consumption.
Especially requiring investment in real 'concrete' production facilities that may lie around collecting mothballs for periods of time.

Jack and Jill in accounting will quickly earn easy points pointing out the terrible ROCE on these.

I also understand there is a lot of infrastructure built with taxes when they were 20% or more higher that is coming due for extensive maintenance and possible replacement.
Thanks to my parents for your sacrifices.

Like water and sewage capex, you kick that can down the road as thats not a private enterprise thing.
Looooong term investment, with marginal risky returns, unless someone else is underwriting profit.

Who would that someone be?

Of course we don't need to insulate new builds so well, as well.

wellygary

8312 posts

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#3269848 9-Aug-2024 12:32

ezbee:

Like water and sewage capex, you kick that can down the road as thats not a private enterprise thing.
well.

Most of the local councils appear to have ballsed that up too :)

zenourn

271 posts

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#3269854 9-Aug-2024 12:44

Mehrts:

I know that's satire, but too many people actually think that EVs are the sole cause of power shortages...
Even though the vast majority are charged overnight during the cheaper off-peak period when there is excess generational capacity available.

Yes, but it isn't about generation capacity at the moment: even at off-peak prices are crazy due to low of energy reserves. I'm a fan of EVs and we have three of them and use an average of 120 kWh/day and can get up to 180 kWh if a busy day charging cars. As can be seen by my high usage below EVs will be one factor increasing power demand and using up some of the available energy reserves.

The main issue is under investment in new generation because of the uncertainty around Tiwai. Dryish years are something we should be able to deal with. The gentailers also like supply being constrained to maximise profit.

Dingbatt

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#3269860 9-Aug-2024 12:59

Just dig up some of our high quality NZ coal and burn it in the boilers at Huntly to make up the shortfall.

Oh, no, wait……….

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

tehgerbil

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#3269861 9-Aug-2024 13:04

I'm a really pessimistic guy, from what I see - Unless you're a shareholder, electricity as a service is being increasingly used as a cash cow by greedy people who give zero mind to who they're hurting.

Change my mind?

I mean, here's a pile of barely coherent thoughts and sources for this:

National sells off energy companies.
Labour handed them a cash bonus by forcing removal of prompt payment discounts.
Successive Governments have kept shelling out cash with the winter energy payment benefit.
Energy companies keep hiking prices, increasing earnings to $7 million a day.

Energy prices from EA:
https://www.ea.govt.nz/news/eye-on-electricity/new-zealands-electricity-future-generation-and-future-prices/

Coupled with:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132841291/big-four-power-companies-earning-7-million-every-day

And the biggest F-you to consumers:
http://www.dividendsranking.com/New+Zealand-dividend-stocks.html
How and why are energy companies paying higher dividends than freaking gambling companies, logistics and healthcare!?

And Labours freaking meddling in 2019 just caused companies to raise their prices with impunity.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2019/10/government-s-threat-to-power-companies-end-prompt-payment-discounts-or-we-will.html
Power prices jumped 20% immediately for many. (yes lowered for some).
Funnily enough it was meant to save 45million dollars a year but I can't find any follow up assessment whatsoever so can only presume it would have been bad press and the call to remove PPDs utterly backfired???

So..
..Power companies are in the 3/10 highest dividend payers..
..The Government is propping up prices with the Winter energy payment benefit..
Companies who sell energy are going broke.
Companies who generate and sell energy are making money hand over fist.
Generating companies are caught red handed dumping water to raise prices and are not punished in any way.

The rot is systemic and deep.

Anyway, hopefully you've learn something. I know the dividend payout graph by companies was pretty eye opening and aggravating.

wellygary

8312 posts

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#3269886 9-Aug-2024 13:53

tehgerbil:

mean, here's a pile of barely coherent thoughts and sources for this:

National sells off energy companies.
Labour handed them a cash bonus by forcing removal of prompt payment discounts.
Successive Governments have kept shelling out cash with the winter energy payment benefit.
Energy companies keep hiking prices, increasing earnings to $7 million a day.

The Government still owns 51% of the 3 major gentailers, so effectively can control them ( if it wanted to)

Geez, thou, that EA article (written in Feb 2023) is basically telling us there is a Huge frigging problem coming down the pipe, but we don't really have a solution for the next few years other than

"Therefore, until large-scale energy storage is available (which stores excess energy from intermittent generation), or demand flexibility becomes more prevalent, fossil-fuelled generation will remain available to meet winter demand."

and that chart..... who decides to produce a scary chart without actually Zeroing the Y axis- I mean come on, that is Stats 101

Also glib remarks like

"However, more renewable generation should act to depress spot prices in the long run, as it is generally cheaper to produce. "

Err yes, but its not continuous generation, so when its dark or less windy you get no much, and you can't run industry, ( let alone a country) on " well when the wind starts to blow it will be OK...

cddt

1548 posts

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#3269910 9-Aug-2024 14:27

zenourn:

Yes, but it isn't about generation capacity at the moment: even at off-peak prices are crazy due to low of energy reserves. I'm a fan of EVs and we have three of them and use an average of 120 kWh/day and can get up to 180 kWh if a busy day charging cars. As can be seen by my high usage below EVs will be one factor increasing power demand and using up some of the available energy reserves.

Wow. Middle of winter and we're using about 20 kWh / day!

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