As the OP stated this is getting off topic.

How will NZ go? Not how will a global nuke war go (which it wont)

tdgeek:

 

As the OP stated this is getting off topic.

 

How will NZ go? Not how will a global nuke war go (which it wont)

 

How will NZ go? one word = screwed

frankv:

 

Batman:

 

i think it's fair to say in such a scenario those who already own nothing will have nothing to worry about, and the more you own the more there is to worry.

 

a person who controls the warheads naturally fall into the latter group.

 

thus only a psychiatrically insane person would do this.

 

out of the owners of such warheads i can think of only 2 who are potentially insane - Putin (definitely, maybe), Kim (maybe, maybe not), in 2024 potentially Trump if he is not legally barred from running (maybe not insane but may be crazy)

 

 

Right. Except if the owner of a nuke believes that in 2025 they have a 90% chance of being dead if they do nothing, vs an 89% chance of being dead if they nuke Ukraine 

 

i have no idea why Putin would think he has a 90% chance of being dead. nobody dares touch him.

Rikkitic:

 

The secretary-general of the United Nations has just issued a warning that the world is on the verge of nuclear annihilation. What would happen to us here if there was a major nuke exchange in Europe/America? Not total destruction, but substantial attacks on cities and military targets on both sides. How would that affect New Zealand? Radioactive cloud? Climate damage? Collateral effects of strikes on Australia? Would it become On the Beach here or could we get through it cockroach-fashion?

 

tdgeek:

 

As the OP stated this is getting off topic.

 

How will NZ go? Not how will a global nuke war go (which it wont)

 

From what I have read by most accounts we are unlikely to suffer direct effects unless they attack Australia or us directly, which is less likely. Our distance is a huge advantage. 

What is more likely to cause us a lot of pain in a global nuclear war is to instantly be totally self reliant. With likely international trade collapse there would be an immediate cut off of all imports including critical things such as oil, medicines, replaceable parts, skilled labour etc. Even though we are likely to have good food stocks, without oil harvesting it, transporting it and processing it would be hard to impossible. Communication is another thing. If communication networks collapse, how you get the government to immediately shift into a war economy footing and then getting out the plan to all regions and the population becomes hard. Lots of people would immediately be required to shift into food harvesting and critical industries etc.  This is assuming there is a plan, if there isnt one will need to be created real quick.

Lots of critical industries rely on imported parts and labour for key machinery and infrastructure to operate. Coming up with local replacements for these, without the skills or plant to manufacture these will become really hard. Hopefully they have a couple of years of spares on hand, but probably not.

Also - borders would be immediately closed, lots and lots of kiwis would be trapped overseas with very little to no prospect of getting home for maybe years or at all if they are even still alive. Its also likely, being in NZ becomes very valuable. It is likely we would have to prepare to get many refugees. When you have little to no medicines, you certainly wont be able to do much to help people arriving who are sick or injured.

Just some of the points - overall at least initially we should be ok. But man, it will be a tough few years after that.

Batman:

 

frankv:

 

Right. Except if the owner of a nuke believes that in 2025 they have a 90% chance of being dead if they do nothing, vs an 89% chance of being dead if they nuke Ukraine 

 

 

i have no idea why Putin would think he has a 90% chance of being dead. nobody dares touch him.

 

When the military and/or FSB and/or oligarchs decide that he's a liability, he's a goner.

And, whilst he has been successful in Chechnya and Georgia and I guess Syria, he badly misjudged in attacking Ukraine. That misadventure has pushed Finland and Sweden into NATO, created a de facto alliance between Ukraine and NATO members, cost Russia billions of rubles, thousands of lives, and perhaps the ability to control other secession attempts. The powers behind the throne wouldn't want a recurrence.

If you give any credence to rumours about Putin's (physical) health, perhaps there's 100% chance he'll be dead in a year or two. So perhaps he may soon have nothing to lose personally.

I have more fear of the actions of the US leadership immediately past, present and likely future. Poking the bears will eventually get you bitten.

Seems like unfortunately once some dictator has finished subjugating his (inevitably its a he), they can't wait to start having a go at other peoples countries.

We would have complete chaos and mass rioting.  We are not a country of preppers, but more a country of 'She'll be right'. 
Martial law would have to come into play very quickly.  We struggled with a few protesters in Wellington....

magnetonz:

 

We would have complete chaos and mass rioting.  We are not a country of preppers, but more a country of 'She'll be right'. 
Martial law would have to come into play very quickly.  We struggled with a few protesters in Wellington....

 

Over reaction there.The public would listen to the authorities, get an idea what the next 12 months entails, and how they and you can prepare. Oil is the big issue, but as oil use would probably ease a lot, the oil producers would still want to export, and everyone else would want to import. While buying the cheap Chinese skilsaw wont be an option, its a time to hunker down and focus on the NZ local economy. Food exports and imports would probably continue for those that had radiation free goods.

Perhaps, but I see the riots and mayhem also too pessimistic. Japan had two strikes, they managed fine. While a world nuke fest would obviously be more than 2 strikes, Id wager that a wildfires put out more particles in the air than nuclear blasts. Volcanoes as well, they also spew particles over a lengthy period of time. 

Lets say there are no exports or imports of any kind, or oil, even though most of those facilities will still be fully operational. In NZ we can eat our own food, regions will need to manage that if no fuel for transport. We could go backwards by 100 years and just get by. People managed that 100 to 200 years ago

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#:~:text=Nuclear%20winter%20is%20a%20severe,a%20large%2Dscale%20nuclear%20war.

 

firestorms would result in the injection of soot (specifically black carbon) into the Earth's stratosphere, producing an anti-greenhouse effect that would lower the Earth's surface temperature. The severity of this cooling in Alan Robock's model suggests that the cumulative products of 100 of these firestorms could cool the global climate by approximately 1 °C (1.8 °F), largely eliminating the magnitude of anthropogenic global warming for the next roughly two or three years.

 

Our climate is currently heating (or hotter), so the firestorms could be just what we need to get back to where we were a few years ago. Considering the immediate population loss from nuclear strikes and subsequent knockback to global trade, a nuclear war could be just what we need as a climate 'reset'.