https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/02/nz-weather-fresh-heavy-rain-warnings-issued-metservice-monitoring-tropical-low-that-could-become-cyclone.html

Not good. When this popped up it was a chance, just. Now its a high chance to evolve to Cat 3+. Off course the track is entirely unknown, but its cyclone season and the sea temps wont have varied much

tdgeek:

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/02/nz-weather-fresh-heavy-rain-warnings-issued-metservice-monitoring-tropical-low-that-could-become-cyclone.html

 

Not good. When this popped up it was a chance, just. Now its a high chance to evolve to Cat 3+. Off course the track is entirely unknown, but its cyclone season and the sea temps wont have varied much

 

Well, as it relates to NZ it's chance to impact us is low.

tdgeek:

 

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/02/nz-weather-fresh-heavy-rain-warnings-issued-metservice-monitoring-tropical-low-that-could-become-cyclone.html

 

Not good. When this popped up it was a chance, just. Now its a high chance to evolve to Cat 3+. Off course the track is entirely unknown, but its cyclone season and the sea temps wont have varied much

 

i mentioned earlier about this one. its actually two lows both forming cyclones and possibly joining up. estimates of its track is all over the show as you would expect this early on. early predictions was for it to scoot off to the east but more recent predictions is for it to come down to nz, join up and smack Coromandel and east cape. 

networkn:

 

Well, as it relates to NZ it's chance to impact us is low.

 

media is just trying not to panic people.  it may miss us or it might pound the living daylights out of us. to early to tell, but i would be getting ready for it fast.

tweake:

 

media is just trying not to panic people.  it may miss us or it might pound the living daylights out of us. to early to tell, but i would be getting ready for it fast.

 

That doesn't sound like the NZ Media I have been exposed to in the last 5 years. Anything to raise peoples anything is what ends up in the headlines.

Multiple sources report the likelihood as low. There isn't much more people can do to prepare other than the stuff they did for the last one.

I don't think there is reason for much concern at this stage, especially as there is nothing anyone can do about it anyway.

networkn:

 

tweake:

 

media is just trying not to panic people.  it may miss us or it might pound the living daylights out of us. to early to tell, but i would be getting ready for it fast.

 

 

That doesn't sound like the NZ Media I have been exposed to in the last 5 years. Anything to raise peoples anything is what ends up in the headlines.

 

Multiple sources report the likelihood as low. There isn't much more people can do to prepare other than the stuff they did for the last one.

 

I don't think there is reason for much concern at this stage, especially as there is nothing anyone can do about it anyway.

 

 

 

just replace emergency items that have been used, stock up on food/water etc. if you have lost your car etc organise some transport. if your cleaning up stuff this week, try not to leave it where it may end up in the water again or get blown away.

its no big rush, but if it does end up looking nasty you don't want to be trying to do all that at the last minute.

tweake:

 

Just replace emergency items that have been used, stock up on food/water etc. if you have lost your car etc organise some transport. if your cleaning up stuff this week, try not to leave it where it may end up in the water again or get blown away.

 

its no big rush, but if it does end up looking nasty you don't want to be trying to do all that at the last minute.

 

This isn't stuff you should be doing now, it's what you should have done when the last one finished up. Many emergencies don't give you a weeks heads up.

Your emergency kit should be regularly checked and stocked. 

I don't think anyone should be making comments like 'the media is trying not to scare us' as that is unlikely true, and just alarms people. 

networkn:

 

I don't think anyone should be making comments like 'the media is trying not to scare us' as that is unlikely true, and just alarms people. 

 

This applies across the board, not just to the weather. Stupid and dangerous conspiracy theories start with whispers like this that then feed the rumour mill. If you haven't seen credible confirmation that something is true, you shouldn't spread it. 

Real life example: A neighbour I respect told me with alarm that 100 people were dead but the information was being suppressed to not panic people. He is very level-headed but clearly believed this. Until I checked for myself, I also wondered. This kind of thing doesn't help.

Very high quality drone video of the rail line and bridge at Awatoto.

By the look of it the rail bridge protected the road bridge from further damage.
Held back the slash until...

Before and After - Cyclone Gabrielle - Railway destroyed at Awatoto
geoffmackley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2LUnFOWahw

Apparently, you can view in 4K ? 

networkn:

 

tweake:

 

Just replace emergency items that have been used, stock up on food/water etc. if you have lost your car etc organise some transport. if your cleaning up stuff this week, try not to leave it where it may end up in the water again or get blown away.

 

its no big rush, but if it does end up looking nasty you don't want to be trying to do all that at the last minute.

 

 

This isn't stuff you should be doing now, it's what you should have done when the last one finished up. Many emergencies don't give you a weeks heads up.

 

Your emergency kit should be regularly checked and stocked. 

 

I don't think anyone should be making comments like 'the media is trying not to scare us' as that is unlikely true, and just alarms people. 

 

 

 

true, very true.

however if media make a big song and dance about it and it misses nz, then there might be some backlash to that. a lot of people might get very worried for nothing.

emergency kits should be replenished straight away but many are still using them. still got houses without power here. people are still cleaning out homes etc.

tweake:

 

however if media make a big song and dance about it and it misses nz, then there might be some backlash to that. a lot of people might get very worried for nothing.

 

emergency kits should be replenished straight away but many are still using them. still got houses without power here. people are still cleaning out homes etc.

 

Bolded, so what?????

Whats better, be alarmed and no issue, or be NOT alarmed and there is an issue you cannot escape from???

neb:

gzt: It is not a good time to encourage risk taking. Seriously, unless there is an officer or a civil engineer waving people across, I myself think I'd do the exact same thing this evening turn around and take a different route.

He's lived there for 40-odd years and the bridge has always had issues with water coming over it so he knew what he was doing. In terms of turning around, I don't think there were other routes, or at least none that weren't tens of km through even more flood-prone areas, that's why the SUVs were stacked up there. But in general, sure, don't cross a flooded bridge if you don't know what the conditions are.

It's not even just bridges. A common slogan in Queensland is "if it's flooded, forget it" because you cannot even be sure if the road that is meant to be there is in fact still there - there have been cases where the water is only theoretically a few centimetres over the road surface, but the road surface is gone. We actually had a case less than a kilometre from my house where some people were at a drive thru getting burgers, and drove off the edge of the carpark into a very fast moving creek and died. The drive thru now has a sign saying "flash flooding during heavy rain".

tdgeek:

 

tweake:

 

however if media make a big song and dance about it and it misses nz, then there might be some backlash to that. a lot of people might get very worried for nothing.

 

emergency kits should be replenished straight away but many are still using them. still got houses without power here. people are still cleaning out homes etc.

 

 

Bolded, so what?????

 

Whats better, be alarmed and no issue, or be NOT alarmed and there is an issue you cannot escape from???

 

will end up being the boy who cried wolf scenario.

make it out to be a massive storm and you need to evacuate, nothing happens, do that a few times and people loose faith in those whose job it is to predict the weather. they will then stop evacuating when asked to.

need to wait and access it more before starting to make a noise about it.