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tdgeek
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  #2947686 29-Jul-2022 08:23
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mattwnz:

 

I am guessing house prices would have to drop to compensate for the rise in the rates. So the ones most affected will likely be those who purchased in 2020-2022 and got mega mortgages. The crazy house price rise was in part fueled by the record low interest rates, and I hope we are not going to find out the hard way, that banks should have been far more conservative with their lending during that time. It seems some banks were only stress testing around the 5-6% mark when rates were at emergency low levels . I have already seen some people who purchased in the last 2 years, dropping their price to about what they paid for it back when they purchased it. Some sellers are getting desperate. 

 

 

Fully fueled by low interest rates I'd suggest. Prices will ease as rates go up, and that's fine. The unfortunate factor right now is that due to supply inflation, building is more costly and risky which will push buyers to buying not building, based on horror stories of sunset clauses. Be better if building was encouraged, but I cant see that for the near future




kingdragonfly

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  #2954104 13-Aug-2022 09:01
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Press Release – REINZ: Housing sales and prices continue to ease, first home buyers return

New Zealand’s winter property market continues its recent trend, slowing from the pace of sales and price rises of last year — properties stay on the market longer and median prices dip, according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), home of the most complete, accurate and up-to-date real estate data in New Zealand.
...
The median price in Auckland was down 5.6% compared to July last year from $1,165,000 to $1,100,000 in July 2022. Auckland also recorded a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% — down from $1,150,000 in June. Auckland was one of five regions to see an annual decrease in the median price.

In Wellington, the median price was down 5.9% annually, from $860,000 to $809,100 in July 2022.

Tasman was down 4.6% annually, from 839,000 to $800,000,

Otago was down 3.7% from $670,000 to $645,000

Manawatu/Whanganui was down 0.2% from $586,000 to $585,000.

That said, some regions are still seeing double digit annual median price growth.

The median price in Nelson was up 16.3% on July 2021, from $688,000 to $800,000.

Taranaki saw the annual median price increase 15.9% on the same period last year, from $535,000 to $620,000.

West Coast was up 14.7% from $296,500 to $340,000

Canterbury saw an annual increase of 13.6%, from $597,000 to $678,000
...

quickymart
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  #2954111 13-Aug-2022 09:22
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While it's good to see prices drop, I hasten to point out that they are falling from record highs. So while $40,000 off a $1 million house isn't much, it's certainly a start (and a step in the right direction). Houses have been way too overvalued for way too long.




alasta
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  #2954211 13-Aug-2022 14:15
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quickymart:

 

Houses have been way too overvalued for way too long.

 

 

No they haven't. They've been consistent with rents and interest rates.

 

The problem is that rents have been too high and interest rates too low, hence driving up the capital value of a house. Those two factors are now moving in the other direction which is good news. 


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  #2956322 18-Aug-2022 19:20
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kingdragonfly

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  #2956408 18-Aug-2022 20:51
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I know this will make me unpopular, but my fixed rate is 2.79% p.a. for 14 more months.

On my previous home, the same bank, BNZ, was always fussy about me making early payments.

In the last year they add a new feature to Internet banking called "make a lump payment" without fees, and in any amount. I guess BNZ want to me to get rid of me as soon as possible.

In early payments, I've reduced my mortgage about 5% in the last two year. I guess it could be argued it would have been wiser to save the money than make additional payments.

NZ Herald: OCR: Reserve Bank hikes cash rate by 50bp

The Reserve Bank has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3 per cent - its highest level since 2015.

The RBNZ now sees the OCR peaking at 4.1 per cent as it fights inflation pressure. Previously it had forecast a peak of 3.95 per cent.
...

tdgeek
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  #2956457 19-Aug-2022 07:22
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quickymart:

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/three-factors-fuelled-our-housing-market-cheap-money-tax-distortions-land-supply-shortage/ZM6MKG4BKK54RK7CGPOQJ74XRY/

 

A high-level overview of what's caused house prices to skyrocket over the last 20 years.

 

 

Makes sense. Both governments allowed it to happen, allowing tax advantages for citizens and investors, and no interest in skewing buyers to new builds. That all seems to be changing now, land is being opened up, RMA loosened, some media article a day or so ago predicted houses will drop 20%, so all seems to be trending in the right direction. If more are leaving NZ than arriving (expats going back) then thats helpful too.


 
 
 

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quickymart
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  #2956462 19-Aug-2022 08:00
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I agree - I just wish this had happened about 10 years ago instead of finally happening now, prices wouldn't be anywhere near the level they are today.


tdgeek
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  #2956463 19-Aug-2022 08:03
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quickymart:

 

I agree - I just wish this had happened about 10 years ago instead of finally happening now, prices wouldn't be anywhere near the level they are today.

 

 

Yep. Covid didnt help, with the QE, lowering interest rates. Then no holidays so people did renos, adding to a supply crisis of materials for building, so they buy instead


Batman
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  #2956798 19-Aug-2022 23:22
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quickymart:

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/three-factors-fuelled-our-housing-market-cheap-money-tax-distortions-land-supply-shortage/ZM6MKG4BKK54RK7CGPOQJ74XRY/

 

A high-level overview of what's caused house prices to skyrocket over the last 20 years.

 

 

that's correct for the 20 year issue up to 2020.

 

but in the last 2.5 years house prices have almost doubled because of the free money handed out called covid recovery fund - i think it was around $100 billion dollars that was printed that mostly ended up in the housing market thanks to reserve bank's gift to investors called record low OCR

 

so that's basically what happened


  #2956811 20-Aug-2022 07:44
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Batman:

 

but in the last 2.5 years house prices have almost doubled....

 

 

Show me a house that has doubled in the last 2.5 yrs?


tdgeek
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  #2956813 20-Aug-2022 08:01
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Batman:

 

that's correct for the 20 year issue up to 2020.

 

but in the last 2.5 years house prices have almost doubled because of the free money handed out called covid recovery fund - i think it was around $100 billion dollars that was printed that mostly ended up in the housing market thanks to reserve bank's gift to investors called record low OCR

 

so that's basically what happened

 

 

Like everyone else did, what was your solution? Maybe cease QE, dont provide a wage subsidy, we can just as easily and more cheaply just pay them the dole. I guess it doesnt matter if businesses go bust, we can pay the owners the dole too, unless its a larger company, then I guess it doesnt matter. Inflation would have remained low as there is little demand. Recession, but thats ok? We will run out of money for the dole so we can just borrow, and we wont need to watch the annual Budget as that will go to paying down the debt. Health, climate change, etc, etc,etc they dont matter too much?


tdgeek
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  #2956814 20-Aug-2022 08:03
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Senecio:

 

Batman:

 

but in the last 2.5 years house prices have almost doubled....

 

 

Show me a house that has doubled in the last 2.5 yrs?

 

 

He didnt say doubled, "almost doubled" so take that as 90% plus. Also he infers all houses


  #2956830 20-Aug-2022 10:05
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Real data would confirm that most places went up by 40-50 at their peak during the last 2.5 years but many have come back down 10-15% from that peak. Net 30-35% is a long way from 90%!

quickymart
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  #2956899 20-Aug-2022 12:17
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www.homes.co.nz has a good (historic) price tracking tool, interesting to see what prices used to be like before the pandemic compared to now.


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