2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2589442 20-Oct-2020 16:49

vexxxboy:

loceff13:

Covid-19: 'Major outbreak' at Christchurch isolation facility housing dozens of international fishermen

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/123150584/covid19-major-outbreak-at-christchurch-isolation-facility-housing-dozens-of-international-fishermen

Media update at 4pm, ~237 russian crew flew in on the first plane to work on Sealord fishing trawlers. Article mentions ~25 likely cases at this stage

sorry im confused as why this is a big story, isnt this is what is meant to happen?. We have had nearly 60,000 people do the same thing. Fly in, go into isolation for 14 days and if they test positive they stay in Quarantine until cleared. what is different.

it's a "big" story because normally you get 0-2 cases a day.

it's like - this guy normally takes 30 mins to run 5km for the last 5 years, suddenly in the next race they cover 5km in 10 mins - it's going to be big news.

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#2589455 20-Oct-2020 17:42

I am with vexxxboy. This is how the system is meant to work.

ezbee

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#2589531 20-Oct-2020 21:03

Another data point for Test and Fly ...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428777/imported-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-at-christchurch-isolation-facility

Seafood New Zealand chief executive, Jeremy Helson, said all the men were tested before they flew to New Zealand.

"All of these fishers were Covid tested before they took the charter flight into New Zealand. All crewmen tested negative. This pre-flight test was beyond what the government required," Helson said.

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#2589577 20-Oct-2020 21:17

billgates: I hope all the infected cases stayed in Isolation and security is tight unlike last time with loonies jumping fences and visiting supermarkets.

Walking past for lunchbreaks this week for the first time in a bit. There are remote tower cameras on each corner of the outer perimeter fences at Sudima now.

But they're still mingling in the recreation area or talking to people through the fences. Love to know if they're segregated by date of arrival to stop anyone due to leave after day 12-14 from coping it.

Sure, you can clean your hands and put on a mask to head outside. But if you itch your face once outside in the wind all bets are off.

Ironically this was the claim made on the announcement last week

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/russian-and-ukrainian-seamen-will-land-in-christchurch-to-re-float-the-deep-sea-fishing-industry/UPFBITVUIGTH63AY326TCK3WKA/

The seamen will share twin rooms in managed isolation before re-staffing deep sea fishing boats.

She said they will be expected to follow strict rules to prevent Covid-19 being spread

That doesn't seem to have gone to plan...

Fred99

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#2589578 20-Oct-2020 21:21

ezbee:

Another data point for Test and Fly ...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428777/imported-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-at-christchurch-isolation-facility

""

Seafood New Zealand chief executive, Jeremy Helson, said all the men were tested before they flew to New Zealand.

"All of these fishers were Covid tested before they took the charter flight into New Zealand. All crewmen tested negative. This pre-flight test was beyond what the government required," Helson said.

""

Still plenty of scope for someone infected, pre-symptomatic, to test negative, become infectious in the next 24 hours, and transmit the infection to >20 fellow passengers.

Pre-flight testing alone is not going to work for arrivals of passengers to NZ (and other countries with near zero CT). IMO they shouldn't be packing them on charter flights like sardines either - the same rules (or stricter) should apply as we had for domestic flights in NZ when we had CT.

Oblivian

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#2589581 20-Oct-2020 21:32

Aircraft in question. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-smm

Used the previously reserved SIN-CHC Flight ID for the additional Christmas run - 295

Looks like it went on to london once back same day.

pab

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#2589582 20-Oct-2020 21:33

billgates: I hope all the infected cases stayed in Isolation and security is tight unlike last time with loonies jumping fences and visiting supermarkets.

A supermarket (my local) is right next door to the Sudima Hotel Christchurch, so if anyone breaches the temporary fencing they won’t be going far.
It’s an interesting case since this is privately funded, but using an existing managed isolation facility (apparently totally booked out for this group). I’ll bet plenty of other industries are watching closely - in particular universities and education providers wanting to bring in international students.

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Fred99

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#2589591 20-Oct-2020 22:14

Oblivian:

Aircraft in question. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9v-smm

Used the previously reserved SIN-CHC Flight ID for the additional Christmas run - 295

Looks like it went on to london once back same day.

So with two trips on an A350 with ~ 400 passengers total, they may have had a passenger separation policy.

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#2589611 21-Oct-2020 05:44

i'm not sure what to say ... https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/20/australia/australia-covid-quarantine-blood-testing-hiv-intl-hnk/index.html

tdgeek

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#2589626 21-Oct-2020 07:54

Batman:

it's a "big" story because normally you get 0-2 cases a day.

it's like - this guy normally takes 30 mins to run 5km for the last 5 years, suddenly in the next race they cover 5km in 10 mins - it's going to be big news.

Maybe shutting down the fishing industry is a better idea? We are wanting to revive whatever we can economically. In 2 weeks these guys will be working in NZ, for NZ

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#2589642 21-Oct-2020 08:43

Thailand taking a handful of tourists .. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/asia/300138115/covid19-thailand-admits-foreign-tourists-for-the-first-time-in-seven-months

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#2589723 21-Oct-2020 13:28

Watch the app scans and tests jump again..

Where there's 1 household contact there's likely more external.

Issue being, it's the last week and a half of movements you need to know. Not from now you goobers.

Was onto something with the segregation it seems...

Bloomfield said there were also three unrelated imported cases who flew in from London and who tested positive on routine day three testing.

A positive day 12 test raised the possibility of cross-infection while people were in quarantine, he added.

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#2589736 21-Oct-2020 13:55

tdgeek:
Batman:

it's a "big" story because normally you get 0-2 cases a day.

it's like - this guy normally takes 30 mins to run 5km for the last 5 years, suddenly in the next race they cover 5km in 10 mins - it's going to be big news.

Maybe shutting down the fishing industry is a better idea? We are wanting to revive whatever we can economically. In 2 weeks these guys will be working in NZ, for NZ

Exactly

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#2589806 21-Oct-2020 15:22

CDC report: "Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020"

Summary:

As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the United States; however, this might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality.

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.

Content:

As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause. Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

Estimates of excess deaths can provide a comprehensive account of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Estimates of the numbers of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 might be limited by factors such as the availability and use of diagnostic testing (including postmortem testing) and the accurate and complete reporting of cause of death information on the death certificate. Excess death analyses are not subject to these limitations because they examine historical trends in all-cause mortality to determine the degree to which observed numbers of deaths differ from historical norms. In April 2020, CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) began publishing data on excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS.

Discussion:

Based on NVSS data, excess deaths have occurred every week in the United States since March 2020. An estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died since January 26, 2020; approximately two thirds of these deaths were attributed to COVID-19. A recent analysis of excess deaths from March through July reported very similar findings, but that study did not include more recent data through September (5).

Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25–44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020. The age distribution of COVID-19 deaths shifted toward younger age groups from May through August (9); however, these disproportionate increases might also be related to underlying trends in other causes of death. Future analyses might shed light on the extent to which increases among younger age groups are driven by COVID-19 or by other causes of death. Among racial and ethnic groups, the smallest average percentage increase in numbers of deaths compared with previous years occurred among White persons (11.9%) and the largest for Hispanic persons (53.6%), with intermediate increases (28.9%–36.6%) among AI/AN, Black, and Asian persons. These disproportionate increases among certain racial and ethnic groups are consistent with noted disparities in COVID-19 mortality.

The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, the weighting of provisional NVSS mortality data might not fully account for reporting lags, particularly in recent weeks. Estimated numbers of deaths in the most recent weeks are likely underestimated and will increase as more data become available. Second, there is uncertainty associated with the models used to generate the expected numbers of deaths in a given week. A range of values for excess death estimates is provided elsewhere, but these ranges might not reflect all of the sources of uncertainty, such as the completeness of provisional data. Third, different methods or models for estimating the expected numbers of deaths might lead to different results. Estimates of the number or percentage of deaths above average levels by race/ethnicity and age reported here might not sum to the total numbers of excess deaths reported elsewhere, which might have been estimated using different methodologies. Fourth, using the average numbers of deaths from past years might underestimate the total expected numbers because of population growth or aging, or because of increasing trends in certain causes such as drug overdose mortality. Finally, estimates of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19 might underestimate the actual number directly attributable to COVID-19, because deaths from other causes might represent misclassified COVID-19–related deaths or deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic. Specifically, deaths from circulatory diseases, Alzheimer disease and dementia, and respiratory diseases have increased in 2020 relative to past years, and it is unclear to what extent these represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths or deaths indirectly related to the pandemic (e.g., because of disruptions in health care access or utilization).

Despite these limitations, however, this report demonstrates important trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results provide more information about deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic and inform public health messaging and mitigation efforts focused on the prevention of infection and mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and the elimination of health inequities. CDC continues to recommend the use of masks, frequent handwashing, and maintenance of social distancing to prevent COVID-19.

ezbee

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#2589966 21-Oct-2020 18:15

NewsHub reports on TV.
Nurses on 20 Hour shifts and pay cuts with DHB taking over.
These are our front line troups who should be getting danger money, and we need them to be on form and precise with their infection control.
Hospital Nurses being used to fill gaps, but are they then allowing them to work back in Hospital ?
Relying on assurances of Counties Manukau DHB , this is naive considering the number of times DHBs have blindsided Government.

We are handing a lot more cases in isolation, so the chance of any slip causing issues goes up.
The dollars being saved by DHB could cost us 1000's of times more.

Hopefully this reporting is not correct.

Oh it was great to see the Sudima hotel, the crews all hanging out on balconies smoking and talking room to room.
Um its not really fit for quarantine, barely for isolation considering the balconies.

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