2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2692659 14-Apr-2021 13:43

DS248:

From the other article (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-pause-cdc-fda/index.html), 1 (out of the 6) died, 1 seriously ill. They were all in women 18-58, so for that age group the risk may be higher than one in a million. Actual risk will depend on what age groups have mainly got that vaccine; eg. if mainly elderly, the risk in younger people (women?) may be significantly higher than 1:1,000,000.

==

Appears this may be the case for AZ? eg.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/astrazeneca-blood-clot-dilemma-europe/2021/04/05/a8091e4e-914f-11eb-aadc-af78701a30ca_story.html

"The EMA has said there is no scientific evidence to back any age-specific restrictions like those imposed by some European countries. But the agency said that looking at shots given to those under 60, risk levels appear to be more like 1 in 100,000".

Also in same article, UK reported 30 cases of the brain clots and other clots among 18 million patients given AZ doses up to March 21 (presumably a wide cross-section of the population, though they did start with elderly). Seven (out of the 30) had died.

Whereas in Norway, "regulators have said the AstraZeneca vaccine “likely” caused clots in six medical workers among 120,000 people vaccinated" (so ~1:20,000, presumably mainly under-65?). Four (out of six!) died. Presumably being medical workers the Norway stats may be more complete than the whole UK figures?

as you probably know, when the drug makers release something that has been tested on 10s of thousands of people, of a certain health level and certain gender and certain age group, chances are they won't know about the 1 in a million reaction which only shows up after they give it to millions

anyway, as you probably know, that's how all meds work. weighing up benefit vs risk. benefit of 99% no covid death vs 1:100,000 - 1:1,000,000 is something for people to consider.

people will happily take party pills, go on the piss and smoke junk but waaat rare side effect - vaccine is bad!

a woman didn't want tiny skin cancer removed surgically so she applied an acid to burn it off - but when the nose and forehead rotted away she happily underwent 2 plastic surgeries

Geektastic

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#2692662 14-Apr-2021 13:46

Impose a $100.000 fine on employers whose employees lie about testing and see how quickly they take accurate record keeping seriously...

networkn

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#2692666 14-Apr-2021 13:53

antonknee:

Indeed. The implication that this person is lying about getting tested regularly, and the revelation that the police had to get involved in order to get spending records to determine locations of interest, are both... well... very concerning. Especially given there appears to be nothing untoward in the case's locations of interest, why the secrecy on their part? And why lie about getting tested? I realise the tests aren't pleasant but I would want one for my own peace of mind if I worked in MIQ, let alone the fact it's a requirement.

It's far less relevant that he lied, and much much much more of an issue that records categorically exist to prove he didn't and it wasn't flagged by the people who's 40 hour a week job, is to determine the testing status of MIQ Workers.

There must be a zero-trust system in place.

empacher48

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#2692670 14-Apr-2021 13:55

Fred99:

That's incredible.

As a pilot, I do see why there is hesitancy here.

First thing is, a pilot’s health is directly related to their ability to do a job. Most of the serious side effects of this vaccine will mean a pilot will no longer be able to hold a medical and therefore won’t have a job. For example, have a blood clot = your medical is gone, never fly again = no income.

Second is there is no discussion in this article about where the pilot’s fly. Not every single pilot in ALPA is an international pilot. There would be about 400 pilots in NZALPA who fly to high risk destinations, then probably another 400 pilots who will only fly between Australia and NZ and the balance would be pilots who only fly domestically in NZ and will never fly outside of NZ. Is the risk of catching of the pilot who flies a PC12 between Wellington and Westport the same as the B787 pilot who flies to the USA twice a month?

The international pilots I know, including myself have been getting the vaccine as soon as we have been able to. For a lot of NZALPA members who aren’t going to be flying internationally for the next 10 years, why should they be in front of other people who have a high risk of importing COVID or dying from it?

As for pilots being customer facing? We don’t see customers, except when walking through the terminal. When we are on the plane the air circulated in the flight deck is separate from the cabin and has its own supply. This is done first because it means if there is a fire in the cabin, our air supply doesn’t get contaminated as fast by smoke, but has the added effect of reducing the chance of a pilot catching COVID from the SLF.

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#2692671 14-Apr-2021 13:55

networkn:

They are just asking all the wrong questions, no wonder they aren't getting useful answers.

Well the minister actually did almost all that could have been expected when asked about the individual who hadn't been tested since November. He'd informed his employer that he had been regularly tested. "So did he lie about being tested?" That as close to being acknowledged without actually calling the person a liar, which is something he should not do.

I said up in the thread somewhere that maybe some retrospective change to employment law could be acceptable, limited to enforcing the right for an employer to immediately dismiss anybody who did not disclose full information on Covid-19 test and vaccination status. As it is, if you fired someone for refusing vaccination, you'd probably be sued.

Everywhere the whole system has been reliant on voluntary compliance thus open to abuse everywhere, especially including in the general community.

Fred99

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#2692673 14-Apr-2021 14:06

empacher48:

First thing is, a pilot’s health is directly related to their ability to do a job. Most of the serious side effects of this vaccine will mean a pilot will no longer be able to hold a medical and therefore won’t have a job. For example, have a blood clot = your medical is gone, never fly again = no income.

Blood clotting is a common side effect of having C-19 - and you're far more likely to experience blood clotting from that, than from any of the vaccines - but especially the one you're offered here for which AFAIK the clotting risk is effectively zero.

There's no excuse for vaccine hesitancy by pilots at all. It's freaking crazy to think that I'd be in a plane flown by someone who's bought into anti-vax CT.

You're almost infinitely more likely to have a different adverse medical event not related to the vaccine ground you, and presumably have very generous income protection insurance should that happen.

antonknee

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#2692675 14-Apr-2021 14:10

networkn:

antonknee:

Indeed. The implication that this person is lying about getting tested regularly, and the revelation that the police had to get involved in order to get spending records to determine locations of interest, are both... well... very concerning. Especially given there appears to be nothing untoward in the case's locations of interest, why the secrecy on their part? And why lie about getting tested? I realise the tests aren't pleasant but I would want one for my own peace of mind if I worked in MIQ, let alone the fact it's a requirement.

It's far less relevant that he lied, and much much much more of an issue that records categorically exist to prove he didn't and it wasn't flagged by the people who's 40 hour a week job, is to determine the testing status of MIQ Workers.

There must be a zero-trust system in place.

Absolutely - that someone lies is a problem in its own right, but that they even have the opportunity to lie (and be able to get away with it/have the lie accepted as record) is far more problematic IMO. We should not be relying on people to self-report their testing status, particularly not if they work in MIQ.

And indeed we do not in other circumstances. When I was required to self-isolate, the daily check in calls from Healthline were aware of whether I had been tested. They still asked if I had my day 4/day 5/day 12 and symptomatic tests performed, but they already knew the answer.

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networkn

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#2692677 14-Apr-2021 14:13

empacher48:

As a pilot, I do see why there is hesitancy here.

First thing is, a pilot’s health is directly related to their ability to do a job. Most of the serious side effects of this vaccine will mean a pilot will no longer be able to hold a medical and therefore won’t have a job. For example, have a blood clot = your medical is gone, never fly again = no income.

Second is there is no discussion in this article about where the pilot’s fly. Not every single pilot in ALPA is an international pilot. There would be about 400 pilots in NZALPA who fly to high risk destinations, then probably another 400 pilots who will only fly between Australia and NZ and the balance would be pilots who only fly domestically in NZ and will never fly outside of NZ. Is the risk of catching of the pilot who flies a PC12 between Wellington and Westport the same as the B787 pilot who flies to the USA twice a month?

The international pilots I know, including myself have been getting the vaccine as soon as we have been able to. For a lot of NZALPA members who aren’t going to be flying internationally for the next 10 years, why should they be in front of other people who have a high risk of importing COVID or dying from it?

As for pilots being customer facing? We don’t see customers, except when walking through the terminal. When we are on the plane the air circulated in the flight deck is separate from the cabin and has its own supply. This is done first because it means if there is a fire in the cabin, our air supply doesn’t get contaminated as fast by smoke, but has the added effect of reducing the chance of a pilot catching COVID from the SLF.

Thanks, that is an interesting different perspective to consider.

I have been on flights where the pilot has come from the cockpit into the main cabin. I am unsure how common it is nowadays (Post Covid), but it's probably not out of the question there could be some customer contact, or adjacency, via cabin crew etc.

networkn

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#2692678 14-Apr-2021 14:15

antonknee:

Absolutely - that someone lies is a problem in its own right, but that they even have the opportunity to lie (and be able to get away with it/have the lie accepted as record) is far more problematic IMO. We should not be relying on people to self-report their testing status, particularly not if they work in MIQ.

And indeed we do not in other circumstances. When I was required to self-isolate, the daily check in calls from Healthline were aware of whether I had been tested. They still asked if I had my day 4/day 5/day 12 and symptomatic tests performed, but they already knew the answer.

Testing dates and results are available through medical channels, tied to someones medical records. There is not a single good reason relying on someones say so should be a thing.

It's incompetence and it needs to be put to an end.

networkn

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#2692679 14-Apr-2021 14:18

Fred99:

empacher48:

First thing is, a pilot’s health is directly related to their ability to do a job. Most of the serious side effects of this vaccine will mean a pilot will no longer be able to hold a medical and therefore won’t have a job. For example, have a blood clot = your medical is gone, never fly again = no income.

Blood clotting is a common side effect of having C-19 - and you're far more likely to experience blood clotting from that, than from any of the vaccines - but especially the one you're offered here for which AFAIK the clotting risk is effectively zero.

There's no excuse for vaccine hesitancy by pilots at all. It's freaking crazy to think that I'd be in a plane flown by someone who's bought into anti-vax CT.

You're almost infinitely more likely to have a different adverse medical event not related to the vaccine ground you, and presumably have very generous income protection insurance should that happen.

Female pilots on birth control have a chance of a blood clot too. Lots of medications run a risk of it.

Fred99

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#2692680 14-Apr-2021 14:21

networkn:

...it's probably not out of the question there could be some customer contact, or adjacency, via cabin crew etc.

Some of the first cases of C-19 in NZ were pilots and half the cabin crew on a long-haul flight. It never made the news.

empacher48

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#2692681 14-Apr-2021 14:25

Fred99:

Blood clotting is a common side effect of having C-19 - and you're far more likely to experience blood clotting from that, than from any of the vaccines - but especially the one you're offered here for which AFAIK the clotting risk is effectively zero.

Effectivley zero, is not exactly zero. But there are other report side effects other than blood clots that will invalidate your medical, another example Bell’s Palsy will cause an immediate suspension and was recorded in up to 5% of vaccine recipients.

Fred99:

There's no excuse for vaccine hesitancy by pilots at all. It's freaking crazy to think that I'd be in a plane flown by someone who's bought into anti-vax CT.

You're almost infinitely more likely to have a different adverse medical event not related to the vaccine ground you, and presumably have very generous income protection insurance should that happen.

While I don’t agree in the anti-vax message. I do like the fact that you seem to think we are like gods, flying through the sky and we are all should be far more intellectual and enlightened than all the other members of the human race. That plays into the ego of a pilot very, very well.

The actual fact is that we are no different than every other person in society, with the same proportion of people with alternative views on topics to our own. But do those views impact on their ability to do the job? No.

Yes there are higher chances of getting adverse medical outcomes from outside in the real world, but generally they are controlled to a degree by us, we can manage high cholesterol by diet and exercise, reduce the chance of head injuries by taking more precautions or avoiding activities that have a high risk of that.

As for very generous income protection, like most life and disability income insurances, those polices that the general public have access to, are unavailable to commercial pilots as we are classed as “uninsurable”, therefore we have to get specialist insurances, usually provided and subsidised by your airline (if you’re lucky). In my case it isn’t subsidised and my last quote was a payout of half my salary with a two year stand down period was going to cost $12,000 a year....

ezbee

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#2692695 14-Apr-2021 14:50

Bells Palsy , seems to be nowhere near 5% , closer to the 1 in 10,000 of general population ?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2020/12/16/can-getting-the-coronavirus-vaccine-lead-to-bells-palsy/?sh=f9fe2936c83b

""
In the Moderna group, four individuals out of 30,000 reported facial paralysis, three who had received the vaccine, and one who received the placebo. Four of the 43,000 participants in the Pfizer trial developed facial nerve paralysis.
""

""
In the general population, having nothing to do with Covid-19 nor the Covid-19 vaccine, approximately 40,000 individuals develop Bell’s palsy annually in the United States, or approximately 1 in 10,000.
""

Fred99

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#2692698 14-Apr-2021 14:53

empacher48:

Effectivley zero, is not exactly zero. But there are other report side effects other than blood clots that will invalidate your medical, another example Bell’s Palsy will cause an immediate suspension and was recorded in up to 5% of vaccine recipients.

Oh no it wasn't.

It was recorded in 7/40,000 vs 1/40,000 placebo, and causality not established.
It's also a low but known or suspected risk with other vaccines, including some flu vaccines, and anyway the data doesn't differentiate between "new - post vaccine" incidence and people who'd already past acute episodes of the disorder.

Anyway, "immediate suspension" from what I read doesn't mean "permanent suspension", and Bell's Palsy usually self-resolves.

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#2692699 14-Apr-2021 14:53

Long covid rates are far worse than those numbers.

I know one organisation here has had 4 medical retirements in ~7000 staff. They are unable to work and are in their 40s.

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