2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2702739 6-May-2021 07:17

Batman:
UK nearing zero covid deaths

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/04/uk-nears-zero-covid-deaths-good-reason-for-optimism

Meanwhile
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/india-covid-19-appeal-up-to-75-patients-waiting-for-each-hospital-bed/BUMFWB63S3345RW2LDUCXS47VE/

sbiddle

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#2702740 6-May-2021 07:22

Handle9:

85% should be enough to manage the worst effects. The fall off of deaths in the UK with ~65% having received the 1st dose is quite remarkable.

85% will certainly be enough, but it's a level where endemic Covid in society could well remain at quite significant levels.

While data modelling is very unscientific at this point because there are still so many unknowns, the reality is a figure like that could still easily mean numbers in the high hundreds or in a worse case potentially even in the low thousands of endemic Covid cases in the country every year once our borders open. Numbers like that will result in deaths, which hopefully might be enough to convince some of those 15% to be vaccinated.

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#2702755 6-May-2021 07:32

Scott3:

The reality is that it will take months (2+) to get through priority group 3 nationwide (it has 1,700,000 people in it...). This will be even harder for north land as they 50+ people in the mix too meaning they are trying to do a bigger percentage of the population than the rest of the country....

It's going to take a lot longer than 2 months to vaccinate everybody in this group. Assuming a high uptake that's still ~3 million jabs, and our daily jab numbers simply aren't going to ramp up to a point where that's possible. Even in Sep/Oct when we're going to be at the peak the MoH is only taking of 50,000 jabs every day (but are going to need to be hitting close to 75,000 every day to actually hit targets).

A couple of weeks ago Chris Hipkins was pretty snarky on the radio pointing out the word "from" in the from May and from July dates. I still think a lot of NZers are still of the belief come July they're suddenly going to be able to rock up and be vaccinated and don't yet realise that for most of the population Sep - Nov are when the bulk of vaccinations in the country will be done.

Batman

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#2702785 6-May-2021 08:32

Fiji shuts out hospital

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-fiji-shuts-lautoka-hospital-staff-quarantined-within/TVO3LRULUKQ5H3KN2OR2EHHCFY/

alasta

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#2702789 6-May-2021 08:44

I admire the optimism of those who are expecting an 85% vaccination rate.

Geekzone users are not representative of broader society. New Zealand has a lot of deprivation, and people who are disengaged from mainstream society and unable to make basic decisions about their own lives. I can't see any motivation for this part of society to make the effort to get the vaccine, irrespective of whether they have any personal beliefs about the merits of it.

I reckon we'll be lucky to get to 60%, but I hope I'm wrong.

DS248

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#2702793 6-May-2021 08:50

sbiddle:

Handle9:

85% should be enough to manage the worst effects. The fall off of deaths in the UK with ~65% having received the 1st dose is quite remarkable.

85% will certainly be enough, but it's a level where endemic Covid in society could well remain at quite significant levels.

While data modelling is very unscientific at this point because there are still so many unknowns, the reality is a figure like that could still easily mean numbers in the high hundreds or in a worse case potentially even in the low thousands of endemic Covid cases in the country every year once our borders open. Numbers like that will result in deaths, which hopefully might be enough to convince some of those 15% to be vaccinated.

Israel data looks surprisingly good with only ~59% of the population having had a first jab and ~55% fully vaccinated. Surprising because there are likely concentrated sub-populations of unvaccinated people (Ultra Orthodox, and other?)

Prior to the vaccination rollout, case numbers only decreased significantly when the stringency index was above ~80 (unshaded, in plot below).

By contrast, with ~half the population having had a first dose, daily cases numbers have fallen sharply since early March this year despite significant relaxation of restrictions (green shaded area, stringency index < 55). Similar decrease in deaths.

It would be interesting to know why their vaccination rate has fallen off since mid-March. Large pockets of vaccine reluctance? Or (being cynical - or perhaps more in jest), an experiment to assess the effectiveness of the Pfiser-BioNTech vaccine with only 50 - 60% vaccinated?

DS248

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#2702796 6-May-2021 08:54

DS248:

...

Israel data looks surprisingly good with only ~59% of the population having had a first jab and ~55% fully vaccinated. Surprising because there are likely concentrated sub-populations of unvaccinated people (Ultra Orthodox, and other?)

...

The challenge will of course be once they further relax restrictions.

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DS248

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#2702806 6-May-2021 09:09

Much less positive news - at least for a mix of Sinopharm & AZ vaccine doses (Oxford Stringency Index = 43.52 since end of April in both Israel and Seychelles)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56992121

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#2702853 6-May-2021 10:53

DS248:

Much less positive news - at least for a mix of Sinopharm & AZ vaccine doses (Oxford Stringency Index = 43.52 since end of April in both Israel and Seychelles)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56992121

I'll see your :( ... but raise you some good news

"The Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine provides strong protection against two concerning variants of the virus, including the one that has most worried scientists because it can evade parts of the immune response, according to new data from Qatar.

The study, published as a letter in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was about 90 percent effective at blocking infections caused by the B.1.1.7 variant, a more transmissible version of the virus now fueling outbreaks around the world. That encouraging finding was not a surprise, but the study also found that efficacy eroded only slightly, to 75 percent, against the B.1.351 variant that was first detected in South Africa."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/05/05/pfizer-vaccine-virus-variants/

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#2702872 6-May-2021 11:40

Handle9:

I don't know that they did screw up that badly.

NDHB is behind plan by 30% not 70%. I'm not really surprised, I've dealt extensively with NDHB and they aren't a particularly well run organisation.

That said the biggest issue for them appears to be their plan was too ambitious. They are running well above the national average with ~4.7% vaccinated. They are behind plan but still in the top half of administered doses and 5th (I think) in the percentage of population vaccinated.

Interesting. I had assumed each DHP's target was just a population scaled version of the national target, perhaps with a bit of frount load for regions with higher protions of the population being in higher tiers (i.e. Area's with DHB's, and south Auckland where 65+'s are in a higher tier).

Seems odd that north-land would have a harder target than other DHB's given it has relatively few boarder facilities, and well known resourcing issues in the medical space.

I consider it a pretty big screw up, but in reality the consequences are pretty low. The people getting frustrated by the current situation are the ones most likely to get vaccinated anyway, and are unlikely to be those on at the margins, who's vaccination or not will make or break the vaccination program. It's a tease more than anything.

Hopefully they will get the booking system sorted out, and book people in aligning with their capacity (possibly could be booking appointments months away). For most people having a appointment booked will be enough for them to feel the system is working.

Some higher priority people will get vaccinated later than they otherwise would have because of the early inclusion of 50+'s. They may be annoyed by this, but thankfully thanks to NZ being covid-19 free, it dosn't really have any health implications for them.

alasta:

I admire the optimism of those who are expecting an 85% vaccination rate.

Geekzone users are not representative of broader society. New Zealand has a lot of deprivation, and people who are disengaged from mainstream society and unable to make basic decisions about their own lives. I can't see any motivation for this part of society to make the effort to get the vaccine, irrespective of whether they have any personal beliefs about the merits of it.

I reckon we'll be lucky to get to 60%, but I hope I'm wrong.

Frankly 60% (of total population, rather than eligible population) isn't going to be good enough to allow us to re-open the boarders.

70% Seems to be banded around a lot as the bare minimum for that.

I think getting to 70% by say Feb 2022 is going to be a bit marginal, and will be dependent on Medsafe granting approval for kids. 11-15 year olds seem likely, and I think we will need to cross out fingers that one or more of the other kids trials gets completed by then (5-11, 2-5 , 6mo-2), in order to get us across the line.

I'm hoping there will be a massive late rush for vaccination when the date for isolation free travel is announced...

I know at least one person who is hesitant with the vaccine, but not strictly opposed. Currently perceived risk to reward ratio doesn't stack up for this person, but reopening of the boarders (along with knowing heaps of people who have been vaccinated) would likely tip the balance.

I would be very (pleasantry) surprised if we get to 85%...

Despite lots of talk about anti-vaxxer's, true conscientious objectors are really rare (just really vocal). I think there are a fair bunch of people who are "hesitant", but with a few months more data, and a doctors appointment to discuss, while be willing to get vaccinated.

I think that those who are either dis-engaged from healthcare, or simply don't get round to being vaccinated will be the biggest group of vaccinated. I wish the DHB's luck with this.

As a final slightly negitive note, it may not be vaccination numbers that restricts from re-opening isolation free travel. Media stories about hospital overloading seem common:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-hospitals-overloaded-patients-waiting-in-corridors-as-demand-skyrockets/NIU26VB3XCSZFHHGASKSXOXP2A/

Allowing covid-19 into NZ will inevitably increase load on hospitals, and we need some capacity to deal with this.

Worrying that they are currently struggling despite no covid-19, no influenza, no intl tourists etc. Before anybody calls this out as a political jab, hospital overloading is not a new thing in NZ and the issue has spanned multiple governments. Having the hospital system near capacity is highly efficient, but doesn't leave much buffer for increased demand.

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#2702970 6-May-2021 14:46

second unlinked Sydney case

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-one-new-case-in-managed-isolation-concern-mounts-over-second-sydney-community-patient/GRXT4JU5JZ35ZFKNVQK5W2T5F4/

genomically tied to a traveller from April 28

Batman

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#2702971 6-May-2021 14:49

hmm another outlet says it's wife of the first mystery case

DS248

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#2702974 6-May-2021 14:53

Batman:

hmm another outlet says it's wife of the first mystery case

The article you originally linked already stated that... :)

"The man's wife has also tested positive for the virus today"

Handle9

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#2702977 6-May-2021 14:55

Scott3:
Interesting. I had assumed each DHP's target was just a population scaled version of the national target, perhaps with a bit of frount load for regions with higher protions of the population being in higher tiers (i.e. Area's with DHB's, and south Auckland where 65+'s are in a higher tier).

I believe that the rollout plan was an aggregation of the DHBs plans rather than the other way round.

wellygary

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#2702978 6-May-2021 15:12

Handle9:
Scott3:

Interesting. I had assumed each DHP's target was just a population scaled version of the national target, perhaps with a bit of frount load for regions with higher protions of the population being in higher tiers (i.e. Area's with DHB's, and south Auckland where 65+'s are in a higher tier).

I believe that the rollout plan was an aggregation of the DHBs plans rather than the other way round.

Yeah, they were bottom up,

I suspect unofficially the email was "what it the worst you think you can do" so as not to set the bar too high

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