2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2766741 25-Aug-2021 21:53

I still cannot see what the reason you are doing something for in this case has any effect on the safety or otherwise of the activity - nor, for that matter, can I see what relevance the ethnicity of the person undertaking the activity has to the safety or otherwise of the activity.

Oblivian

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#2766743 25-Aug-2021 21:56

The 'readily accessible' also seems to be a minor change. The guides must be quite fluid this year... again.

Updated today

The recreational section has also been updated in response to the NZPolice revoking their public posts on not to drive places after media attention.

You can drive to a place to exercise — for example to a park but you should stay close to where you live. Do not travel too far.

'too far' is 'how long is a piece of string' material.

As has a mention now been made - 'Exercise' and 'Recreation (whitebaiting) seems to now appear under sport.

https://covid19.govt.nz/activities/sports-and-recreation/#sport-at-alert-level-4

Where it outlines the mask outdoors is not required but recommended. Also been a Q&A/public policing contention.

Batman

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#2766750 25-Aug-2021 22:13

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/25/japan-expands-state-of-emergency-as-delta-variant-cases-soar

DS248

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#2766755 25-Aug-2021 22:26

tdgeek:

Batman:

tdgeek: 1. Is 41 to 48 to 62 exponential?

Based on those 3 numbers and only those 3 numbers, Yes

With a R0 value of 5, hard to see that. Especially when all of those three numbers will likely be pre lockdown infections. Uninhibited with an R0 of 5. When you have a base of 0 stats can say anything you like.

You seem to be confuting R0=5 and exponential growth. R0 is the value in the absence of any inhibiting factors such as vaccinations and lockdowns, etc. The effective R value in the current NZ settings will be a lot lower than 5 (unless the spread is occurring wholly within a subset of unvaccinated people not observing any physical distancing measures, which is not the case). Exponential growth in case numbers only requires an effective R value of greater than 1. The rate of growth will depend on both the effective R value and the serial interval between infections. The question is whether our current settings and compliance with them has reduced the effective R value to below 1.

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#2766758 25-Aug-2021 22:36

Geektastic:

I still cannot see what the reason you are doing something for in this case has any effect on the safety or otherwise of the activity - nor, for that matter, can I see what relevance the ethnicity of the person undertaking the activity has to the safety or otherwise of the activity.

It's clearly not about the risk of shore based fishing / white-baiting. Objectively both are relatively low risk when done by experienced people.

I suspect the government is worried about the potential spread of covid-19 with potentially large numbers of people traveling (perhaps pushing the boundaries of "readily accessible including by vehicle") to shore fishing and white-baiting locations. Banning this recreational activity's removes the temptation for people to go far beyond their local area.

In terms of Maori customary rights, I don't know much about this, but I think it is a fair assumption that numbers involved in customary gathering are quite low, and they aren't likely to travel beyond their local area. Assume this cause is just about not breaking the the principals of the Treaty of Waitangi. Personally think it would have a negligible impact on a lockdown's effectiveness.

DS248

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#2766760 25-Aug-2021 22:46

tdgeek:

Batman:

tdgeek: 1. Is 41 to 48 to 62 exponential?

Based on those 3 numbers and only those 3 numbers, Yes

With a R0 value of 5, hard to see that. Especially when all of those three numbers will likely be pre lockdown infections. Uninhibited with an R0 of 5. When you have a base of 0 stats can say anything you like.

We are now nearing the end of the eight day of lockdown. Do you really believe that 'all of those three' days worth of cases (ie. includes 62 announced today) were 'likely' infected prior to the 18th? No one showing up yet who was infected in the last 8 days?

Personally I would expect a reasonable proportion of those announced in the last day or two were infected post-lockdown.

Also, note that the 'stats' in my plot did not have a base of '0'. But it is also why I said to focus on the numbers above 10-20 , not the very start of the curves. The NSW & QLD cases were treated in exactly the same way as the NZ data.

Scott3

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#2766763 25-Aug-2021 22:54

80,033 vaccine doses given yesterday. This is epic.

Seems the health Industry is hitting this out of the park, even though we have level 4 restrictions...

If this is a sustainable rate, 80k*5 + say 50k for yesterday, and 30k for Sunday = 480k doses a week. With approx 370k weekly shipments, and a 500k dose stockpile, by past assumption that we won't be dose limited looks to be wrong. It would take us just 5 weeks to burn through our 500k doses stockpile before we have to slow to match 370k dose weekly deliveries. Would put us in a great position in 5 weeks time though, 5.3m doses given out so well over half of the total population having had their first dose.

Press conference said that more medical centers are being brought online, so we could see an even higher dose rate over the next few weeks. Would be great if we can.

Wonder if we can do like Aussie, and borrow 1m pfizer doses from somewhere with a slower than expected roll out? On the other hand, at 5.3m doses given out we will be getting very close to the point where finding people to vaccinate takes increasing amounts of effort, and our centers start having free capacity.

I just wish that more effort (ideally 6 weeks ago) was put into vaccinating people that need to work in person under level 4. In NSW, the spread of covid-19 via essential workers was a large factor in their lock-down failing, we need to put as much effort into that group as possible. And not just supermarket workers. The likes of food factories, meat works and drivers have all been associated with covid-19 spread offshore.

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Scott3

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#2766766 25-Aug-2021 23:11

DS248:

We are now nearing the end of the eight day of lockdown. Do you really believe that 'all of those three' days worth of cases (ie. includes 62 announced today) were 'likely' infected prior to the 18th? No one showing up yet who was infected in the last 8 days?

Personally I would expect a reasonable proportion of those announced in the last day or two were infected post-lockdown.

Also, note that the 'stats' in my plot did not have a base of '0'. But it is also why I said to focus on the numbers above 10-20 , not the very start of the curves. The NSW & QLD cases were treated in exactly the same way as the NZ data.

I think we will be. Testing was very hard to get in the first few days of lock-down due to massive numbers (likely due to large numbers of people symptomatic with seasonal stuff, or hayfevor), plus a 3 - 4 day wait on results.

Heaps of locations of interest have been added in the last few days. We got tested yesterday as my partner was used the car park floor of a mall (sadly which of the two parking buildings wasn't identified) that was identified as a location of interest. I have been symptomatic for three weeks (tested three weeks ago), but got tested again as by symptoms changed a few days back. Our results could still be a day or two away.

There will still be transmission within households going on, ultimately a lot of this is unavoidable, and the lock-down will need to be long enough for this to be burn itself out (should be fairly quick with the delta strain).

What is really key is the amount of transmission going on between households during lockdown. Essential workers, people in supermarket's etc. Doesn't yet seem to be any useful data on this, but we should be only be a few days away from the point where the number of people we are finding that got sick pre-lock down starts to decline.

Handle9

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#2766769 25-Aug-2021 23:23

DS248:
Handle9:

It's pretty clearly exponential at the moment, as you would expect - there was no lockdown and minimal testing.

Give it another week before finding too many conclusions.

The initial reason for plotting the data was Bloomfield's (repeated) claim that the growth in numbers was "not exponential".

As I (and now you) said, it is too early to tell (but yes the current trend is )

Comparison with NSW was an afterthought. Interesting though.

Yeah it was an odd comment from Bloomfield. It's not yet out of control but there is exponential growth as you have shown. Most people don't really have a clue what that means but you would think his language would be a bit more precise.

mattwnz

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#2766772 26-Aug-2021 00:20

Handle9:

DS248:

The initial reason for plotting the data was Bloomfield's (repeated) claim that the growth in numbers was "not exponential".

As I (and now you) said, it is too early to tell (but yes the current trend is )

Comparison with NSW was an afterthought. Interesting though.

Yeah it was an odd comment from Bloomfield. It's not yet out of control but there is exponential growth as you have shown. Most people don't really have a clue what that means but you would think his language would be a bit more precise.

It is exponential, and I recall it wasn't that many days ago that people on here thought that case numbers were stablising. But the growth essentially should all be infections that occurred prior to the lock down, or within someones household bubble since the lockdown. So I am not that surprised to see thee numbers, and why I was suprised when the MOH said their modiling only showed it would be about 100-120 cases in total, even though day 1 had about 10. I always thought it would be in the multiple hundreds if eliminated and there weren't lockdown flouters. If they are still occurring in essential workplaces since the lockdown, then we have more of a problem.

Batman

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#2766775 26-Aug-2021 05:49

Lots and lots of graphs about our vaccination 26/8/21

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300391375/covid19-nz-the-vaccine-rollout-explained-in-9-graphs-as-new-zealand-hits-daily-record-of-80000-doses

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#2766776 26-Aug-2021 05:52

“To New Zealanders at home who are saying, ‘is this still the right strategy’, it’s too soon to throw in the towel,” he said. “We’ve come this far, it would be an absolute waste for us to give up on this now.”

“Of course we do want to get to the point where lockdowns aren’t the answer to potential outbreaks within the community, but we’re not there yet, and we’re certainly not willing to give up before we get to that point,” Hipkins said.

"prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, on Monday: “For now, everyone is in agreement: elimination is the strategy. There is no discussion or debate amongst any of us about that, because that is the safest option for us while we vaccinate our people,” she said."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/25/new-zealand-wont-throw-in-towel-on-covid-zero-strategy-despite-rising-infections

clinty

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#2766778 26-Aug-2021 06:22

A write up from stuff on exponential vs non exponential growth with regard to this outbreak

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300390979/covid19-daily-case-numbers-are-increasing-quickly-this-simple-mathematical-concept-gives-us-reason-for-optimism

They talk to Professor Michael Plank, of the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Canterbury about why it is not exponential yet
Clint

tdgeek

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#2766783 26-Aug-2021 06:54

DS248:

You seem to be confuting R0=5 and exponential growth. R0 is the value in the absence of any inhibiting factors such as vaccinations and lockdowns, etc. The effective R value in the current NZ settings will be a lot lower than 5 (unless the spread is occurring wholly within a subset of unvaccinated people not observing any physical distancing measures, which is not the case). Exponential growth in case numbers only requires an effective R value of greater than 1. The rate of growth will depend on both the effective R value and the serial interval between infections. The question is whether our current settings and compliance with them has reduced the effective R value to below 1.

My point was that we are getting cases each day and 8 days in, these are highly likely to be pre lockdown, so uninhibited from social distancing and other measures. You say thats not the case, so what you are saying is that all the cases we get are post lockdown. That subset of unvaccinated people that you mention are in my opinion where the cases are coming from. Get infected pre lockdown, later get symptoms or later see that you went to a POI, arrange a test, get a result, that takes days and days. Lag between taking action and seeing a result. In lockdown the spread will markedly reduce, thats when cases will flatten.

tdgeek

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#2766784 26-Aug-2021 06:56

Scott3:

It's clearly not about the risk of shore based fishing / white-baiting. Objectively both are relatively low risk when done by experienced people.

I suspect the government is worried about the potential spread of covid-19 with potentially large numbers of people traveling (perhaps pushing the boundaries of "readily accessible including by vehicle") to shore fishing and white-baiting locations. Banning this recreational activity's removes the temptation for people to go far beyond their local area.

In terms of Maori customary rights, I don't know much about this, but I think it is a fair assumption that numbers involved in customary gathering are quite low, and they aren't likely to travel beyond their local area. Assume this cause is just about not breaking the the principals of the Treaty of Waitangi. Personally think it would have a negligible impact on a lockdown's effectiveness.

There are probably a multitude of outdoor things that people can do. Many with very low risk. We are supposed to stay at home. If we travel to do these outdoor tasks, we may need petrol, food, a pee, vehicle breaks down, thats where spread can come from, not neccessarily the activity

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