2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2767018 26-Aug-2021 14:19

tdgeek:

James Bond:

Should we be worried about the positive detection of Covid in the sewage catchment in Christchurch? Last detection was 3 week before. Now it's 2 days in row.

Mild panic here :-).. There is MIQ here. I'm not sure if thats the explanation, case closed, or if they are still working on it.

There are presently several active cases in MIQ in Chch.

Long term and not specifically relating to Covid, one more argument for NZ to consider building dedicated MIQ facilities. Waste water testing is going to be a valuable tool for future disease outbreaks - which are inevitable.

The positive tests in Chch wastewater mean that although they can say it's "probably" from MIQ, that's not saying that it isn't from CT.

They did manage to sequence the RNA in testing from Warkworth to link it to the outbreak, but I think that may have been a bit of a fluke.

tdgeek

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#2767027 26-Aug-2021 14:29

Agree. Its clear now that covid is here for the long term in some form. There isn't any concerns now that large purpose built facilities will sit largely idle. Seperate wastewater so testing the community is more valid

DS248

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#2767035 26-Aug-2021 14:50

Fred99:

...

Long term and not specifically relating to Covid, one more argument for NZ to consider building dedicated MIQ facilities. Waste water testing is going to be a valuable tool for future disease outbreaks - which are inevitable. ...

QLD has already started building a regional COVID-19 quarantine facility near Toowoomba (despite federal government concerns). Expect 500 beds operating by end of year and 1000 by March 22.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-26/covd-qld-wellcamp-toowoomba-regional-quarantine-facility/100403692

PolicyGuy

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#2767045 26-Aug-2021 15:18

Fred99:

Long term and not specifically relating to Covid, one more argument for NZ to consider building dedicated MIQ facilities. Waste water testing is going to be a valuable tool for future disease outbreaks - which are inevitable.

I was against this but now I'm forced to concede it looks likely to be a medium-term use.

Auckland would be difficult, land is scarce and very expensive.

How about one in Hamilton - on the western side of the airport off Ohaupo Road - and one in Christchurch - again on the western side of the airport off Pound Road / Savills Rd, near the airport fire practice area?
Both sites are at a decent-sized airport, close to a tertiary hospital, and in very convenient commuting distance to a major labour pool

wellygary

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#2767050 26-Aug-2021 15:24

Buried beyond the overall good vaccination headline numbers are some really interesting figures

The 60% 65+ fully vaccinated is a great number for this stage of the rollout as is the 83% first dose for this group

Cumulative vaccinations by age Age

First dose administered First doses per 1000 people Fully vaccinated Fully vaccinated per 1000 people

12 - 29 years 228,204 19.3% 98,614 .83%

30 - 49 years 449,503 34/1% 210,851 16%

50 - 64 years 551,101 59.4% 261,674 28.2%

65 and over 653,298 82.8% 479,209 60.7%

Total 1,882,106 447 1,050,348 249

tdgeek

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#2767051 26-Aug-2021 15:25

Fred99:

I think that's more or less what she said, but probably meant to - or could have said: "known so far to have generated transmission".

Reading the article later, of yesterdays 62 cases, 37 were in household cases, ONLY 3 were CT, 16 were being investigated, the rest were linked (so I assume are linked pre lockdown?)

I'd like to know what "linked" means as regards infection. Yes, we know they know who the cases got it from, but when and how?

But if these 62 cases, represent 3 genuine CT in lockdown, well, thats huge, if I'm understanding it correctly. Possibly backs up my stance that the numbers are mainly pre lockdown expected cases being hoovered up, and post lockdown is working well

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ajobbins

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#2767054 26-Aug-2021 15:30

PolicyGuy:

I was against this but now I'm forced to concede it looks likely to be a medium-term use.

Honestly I think this would just be a waste of money, unless you are intending to maintain a hard border (with no relaxation in rules from what they are today) long term.

Without that (or probably even with it), more transmissible variants like Delta will quickly get in and spread, even amoung a very highly vaccinated population.

The earlier ideas around being able to seperate certain types of travellers based on different risk profiles, with some going into MIQ and others will lesser restrictions and still maintain elimination may have worked with earlier variants but it's clear now that it only takes 1 single case to slip through and you can have significant transmission very quickly.

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KellyP

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#2767061 26-Aug-2021 15:38

Are we going to be doing anything similar here?

We may need it for overseas travel: https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/subjects/getting-help-during-coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-vaccinations/how-get-proof-your-covid-19-vaccinations

wellygary

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#2767062 26-Aug-2021 15:39

tdgeek:

Possibly backs up my stance that the numbers are mainly pre lockdown expected cases being hoovered up, and post lockdown is working well

Yeah, I hope those numbers are right, but I would expect numbers to taper off a fair bit over the next few days, BUT it is stamping out the last embers that are really crucial... EVERYONE testing positive needs to be found...

the other hope is that they can also round up all the contacts that have moved through the rest of the country

mattwnz

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#2767092 26-Aug-2021 16:05

ajobbins:

PolicyGuy:

I was against this but now I'm forced to concede it looks likely to be a medium-term use.

Honestly I think this would just be a waste of money, unless you are intending to maintain a hard border (with no relaxation in rules from what they are today) long term.

Without that (or probably even with it), more transmissible variants like Delta will quickly get in and spread, even amoung a very highly vaccinated population.

The earlier ideas around being able to seperate certain types of travellers based on different risk profiles, with some going into MIQ and others will lesser restrictions and still maintain elimination may have worked with earlier variants but it's clear now that it only takes 1 single case to slip through and you can have significant transmission very quickly.

Vaccinations over time will improve and I have also heard of a nasal spray ones that is being developed that could be a game changer. NZ is player wait and see a bit to see how much affect vaccinations have. UK have quite a high vaccination rate, but are getting 100 deaths a day, which equates to 36000 a year. That is far more than normally die from the flu each year in the UK. Then a million have long covid which is something that could potentially affect some of those people for life.

But NZs health system and ICU capacity will need to be increased a lot if we are going down the 'opening up route', to cope with cases. But opening up may still involve suppression measures, such as mask wearing in public, maybe limiting event numbers etc to slow down transmission. eg Similar to living in level 2, which isn't good compared to how we have been living. Travel is the problem for NZ, as that is how it is leaking in. Long term the way humans are living is not sustainable, as per the climate emergency, and this includes all the fossil fuels use with travel. I know some people (in their 30's) who have never even left the country before), so travel overseas is not exactly essential to live a full life. Several experts I have heard say that the virus will continue to evolve and may become less of a problem over time, but that could take years. I am optimistic

richms

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#2767093 26-Aug-2021 16:07

msukiwi:

I wonder how many people are taking the "opportunity" to do a Computer Backup during the Lock Down?

I have taken the opportunity to sort out the mess of my music collection. Getting rid of lossy files that I have in lossless, many dupes, many single tracks that I have on an album, fixing tags up where people inconsiderately put disc numbers in the album name field, have incorrect years on some of the files when it is an anthology disc, put n/n on the track numbers and other tagging sins.

Then I have been moving all the photos from my various PC drive dumps and backups of dropbox from when I used it and my google drives into a single place and running auslogics duplicate file finder over it all to delete the in some cases 30 copies of a single image I have ended up with all over the place. My storage space has gone from demanding 2 new drives to be happy to being happy with the number that it has available.

In addition I have redone the patch panel in the garage since I had many more runs I had taken to it but not punched down, and some redundant ones to rip out of it. Tomorrow I will be swapping out 3 sensor lights for the smart ones I got from bunnings pre-lockdown, and finishing the basement shelving that I also have had sitting around for ages. Lockdown is a great time to get deferred tasks done.

Problem is that on the last day of freedom I had quite a sore back so rushed to the GP to get them to look at it and the drugs they gave me basically gave total fatigue (they claimed sleepyness but that is a lie) so the first lockdown week was totally non productive other than things I could do sitting at the PC.

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Scott3

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#2767126 26-Aug-2021 17:27

James Bond:

Are we going to be doing anything similar here?

We may need it for overseas travel: https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/subjects/getting-help-during-coronavirus-covid-19/covid-19-vaccinations/how-get-proof-your-covid-19-vaccinations

You can get a vaccine confirmation letter:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-requesting-proof-vaccination-overseas-travel

ajobbins

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#2767127 26-Aug-2021 17:34

mattwnz:

Vaccinations over time will improve and I have also heard of a nasal spray ones that is being developed that could be a game changer. NZ is player wait and see a bit to see how much affect vaccinations have. UK have quite a high vaccination rate, but are getting 100 deaths a day, which equates to 36000 a year. That is far more than normally die from the flu each year in the UK. Then a million have long covid which is something that could potentially affect some of those people for life.

But NZs health system and ICU capacity will need to be increased a lot if we are going down the 'opening up route', to cope with cases. But opening up may still involve suppression measures, such as mask wearing in public, maybe limiting event numbers etc to slow down transmission. eg Similar to living in level 2, which isn't good compared to how we have been living. Travel is the problem for NZ, as that is how it is leaking in. Long term the way humans are living is not sustainable, as per the climate emergency, and this includes all the fossil fuels use with travel. I know some people (in their 30's) who have never even left the country before), so travel overseas is not exactly essential to live a full life. Several experts I have heard say that the virus will continue to evolve and may become less of a problem over time, but that could take years. I am optimistic

Yes, a number of health measures are likely to exist as you have pointed out, or are yet to be developed. This will help to manage spread and to limit the number of people who ultimately get seriously ill (or worse from covid). These measures will probably also have a positive impact on other illnesses like the flu.

The premise of a closed border is that you keep the virus out, allowing you to live a 'normal; life and thus avoiding the need for harsh measures like lockdowns, but also other health measures.

The border is your first line of defence, your health and social measures second, and lockdowns third. But the border is already leaking now - NZ was in a position where very little of the second line of defence was in place, so you are back to lockdowns. You can't do that forever.

The border will continue to leak - especially once there is any relaxation in the rules. Once that happens, you rely on your second and third lines of defence. The problem right now is with low vax numbers, the second line of defence is weak. Once your second line of defence is stronger, the border becomes less and less relevant. It literally only takes 1 person bringing it in via the border to spark as large scale outbreak as you are seeing now. Even with a fully vaccinated population it will spread around, but far fewer people will get sick. Many may have and transmit it without knowing.

I expect there will be a short term transition period where some travellers who present a higher risk may need to quarantine, but the purpose of that will not be to maintain elimination, rather than to slow the eventual spread of COVID as a long term endemic disease. That may apply to travellers who are not vaccinated or are coming form places with large spread or low vaccination levels. But in the next 12 months or so, most of the world will be vaccinated and on roughly even playing field with regard to risk. If you could have dedicated facilities (like Howard Springs here in Oz) build tomorrow, they would be useful for the next 6-12 months or so, but by the time you build them I can't see them being needed.

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tdgeek

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#2767128 26-Aug-2021 17:38

wellygary:

the other hope is that they can also round up all the contacts that have moved through the rest of the country

I think they have all been contacted and tested, but at least they are locked down

tdgeek

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#2767129 26-Aug-2021 17:41

mattwnz:

Vaccinations over time will improve and I have also heard of a nasal spray ones that is being developed that could be a game changer. NZ is player wait and see a bit to see how much affect vaccinations have. UK have quite a high vaccination rate, but are getting 100 deaths a day, which equates to 36000 a year. That is far more than normally die from the flu each year in the UK. Then a million have long covid which is something that could potentially affect some of those people for life.

But NZs health system and ICU capacity will need to be increased a lot if we are going down the 'opening up route', to cope with cases. But opening up may still involve suppression measures, such as mask wearing in public, maybe limiting event numbers etc to slow down transmission. eg Similar to living in level 2, which isn't good compared to how we have been living. Travel is the problem for NZ, as that is how it is leaking in. Long term the way humans are living is not sustainable, as per the climate emergency, and this includes all the fossil fuels use with travel. I know some people (in their 30's) who have never even left the country before), so travel overseas is not exactly essential to live a full life. Several experts I have heard say that the virus will continue to evolve and may become less of a problem over time, but that could take years. I am optimistic

Me too

The nasal spray you mentioned may be the antivirals Ive read from time to time perhaps. The booster, they are looking at a third dose, designing something for Delta, all of that will help. But we cannot avoid opening up. If "everyone" is vaccinated, and boosted with the latest booster option that's all we can do. Maybe no one enters without the booster of the day

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