2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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195 posts

Master Geek

#2780373 18-Sep-2021 17:46

tdgeek:

I think I read about 70% have had the first dose here. Some are today, some n 3 weeks, the max are 6 weeks. So in 6 weeks, we will be 70% fully vaccinated. Add that that those getting the first dose today etc. Your post seems t be glass half empty.

Factor in, trials for under 12's, and 6 months +.

Fair enough, it's a large number but we are getting through it at a reasonable speed. Probably just under another month till 70%.

On2or3wheels

195 posts

Master Geek

#2780435 18-Sep-2021 18:15

These are concerning numbers.

Cases infectious in the community : Seven (64%) of yesterday’s 11 cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious : Four (36%) of yesterday’s 11 cases

From today. "There are 20 new community cases today. 19 of these are household or known contacts."

Since today's cases are household or known they should have been in isolation already. It will be interesting tomorrow to see the dates on any LOI to get a gauge on whether people are following the rules.

Batman

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#2780454 18-Sep-2021 19:53

tdgeek:

Batman:

for delta i needs to be total. our hospitals can't even cope with locking down after 1 case

Can you post the link for that?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126317715/covid19-middlemore-staff-stretched-to-the-limit-with-29-workers-in-isolation

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126260217/covid19-sending-icu-nurses-to-auckland-will-put-pressure-on-other-regions--union

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/450647/more-than-100-nurses-doctors-ready-to-help-auckland-hospitals

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126248647/covid19-auckland-district-health-boards-request-icu-staff-from-other-regions?rm=a

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/107793693/shortstaffing-of-new-zealand-hospitals-putting-patients-staff-at-risk-report

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/448299/dunedin-hospital-ward-understaffed-by-20pc-for-two-years-review-finds

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/health/hospital-stretched-its-limit

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300374794/new-zealand-doesnt-have-enough-icu-capacity-even-without-the-effects-of-a-pandemic

alexx

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Ultimate Geek

#2780467 18-Sep-2021 20:38

tdgeek:

I think I read about 70% have had the first dose here. Some are today, some n 3 weeks, the max are 6 weeks. So in 6 weeks, we will be 70% fully vaccinated. Add that that those getting the first dose today etc. Your post seems t be glass half empty.

Factor in, trials for under 12's, and 6 months +.

From my understanding we have about 70% of the eligible population, but closer to 60% of total population with one vaccination. Total population based vaccination figures for different countries can be found here, but as several people have noted, the Our World in Data charts use some out of date population figures, so useful but not 100% accurate.

The Ministry of Health site has a page showing the percentages for both the eligible and total population.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

In any case, 60% (even if fully vaccinated) is a long way short of where we need to be.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

sbiddle

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#2780470 18-Sep-2021 20:58

alexx:

From my understanding we have about 70% of the eligible population, but closer to 60% of total population with one vaccination. Total population based vaccination figures for different countries can be found here, but as several people have noted, the Our World in Data charts use some out of date population figures, so useful but not 100% accurate.

The Ministry of Health site has a page showing the percentages for both the eligible and total population.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

In any case, 60% (even if fully vaccinated) is a long way short of where we need to be.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about the "90%" target especially after Andrew Little talked about it today.

The NZ Herald campaign and Little's comments are a target of 90% of the eligible population, which at present is 12+

A couple of weeks ago Stats NZ made some pretty significant changes to the number of people in NZ and their age brackets which has meant a pretty big reduction in the number of people aged 12+, and a big increase in the numbers aged 0-11

There are now 4.21m people aged 12+ in NZ, down from the 4.35m figure that was quoted up until last week by the MoH. As of the 30th June Stats NZ put the total population at 5,122,600

This means if we could vaccinate 100% of the eligible population right now aged 12+ it would only be 82.18% of the total population, so aiming for 90% of that is 3,789,000 which equates to 74% of the total population.

Aiming for 74% of the total population vaccinated by Xmas wouldn't even get us near the top of any tables - quite a few countries are already well beyond that, and in the 3 months until we're aiming for that percentage there are going to be a lot more countries who will move up the table.

Scott3

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#2780477 18-Sep-2021 21:58

On2or3wheels:

These are concerning numbers.

Cases infectious in the community : Seven (64%) of yesterday’s 11 cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious : Four (36%) of yesterday’s 11 cases
From today. "There are 20 new community cases today. 19 of these are household or known contacts."

Since today's cases are household or known they should have been in isolation already. It will be interesting tomorrow to see the dates on any LOI to get a gauge on whether people are following the rules.

Absolutely

It is pretty clear that the situation has not substantially improved over the last week or so. So our level 4 + contact tracing will take a long time to eliminate the outbreak, if it will at all.

Going to be very interesting what route the government goes on Monday. Options as I see it for auckland:

Create a level 5, and go super hard to eliminate the outbreak. (likely to be very unpopular given Auckland were expecting more freedom, not less).
Extended level 4. (Our next best chance at elimination, but may not achieve a significant in the next 2-3 or so weeks. Lock down fatigue would result in a decay of effectiveness of the lock-down, but our recent vaccinations should help its effeciveness)
Go to Level 3, as per prior indication (seems most likely, but this does mean giving up on a realistic hope of getting cases down to zero. If level 4 ain't working fast enough, level 3 sure won't)
Go to level 2, accept endemic covid-19, time the crush on our hospital systems to hit around early November - so it is in summer. Push vaccines super hard. (very unlikely we go this route)

I am picking Auckland will go to level 3. This will be a massive call, as it means we are unlikely to drop to zero cases ever. 'safe" call would be to extend level 4 another two weeks. But going to level 3, rather than level 2 means there remains an outside chance. Under level 3, case growth will be pritty slow, buying us several more weeks to crank our vaccination program, prep our hospitals etc, before we hit thousands of cases a day.

Kinda sucks for the rest of NZ, as cases grow in Auckland, leaks are inevitable, and other regions will need to be brought up to alert level 3 too.

Around early December we will be able to see what the load on our hospitals is, and consider dropping to level 2 for summer.

None of this is pritty.

Another factor to note is that we seem to be seeing a spike in infections in MIQ. If the aussie 1:200 leak ratio from a while back still holds for MIQ, and we average 3 cases a day, our average leak return period would be just over two months, so this won't be our last MIQ leak...

Interesting to note the dialog changing from the government.

a few days ago, incorporating vaccines into the alert level's was discussed. Only things I can think of are saying alert level 4 is only for use below xx% vaccinated, or placing restrictions on the vaccinated at higher alert levels.
The government is actively considering a possible mandate of vaccinations - This is a very out there move for NZ. Few countries have had vaccine mandates (but many have restricted access to high risk stuff like gyms to the unvaccianted)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-level-4-unlikely-if-vaccination-rate-high-enough-health-minister-andrew-little-says/OUUS7PTGKZUJOHY6FMQ6QINDGI/

wellygary

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#2780482 18-Sep-2021 22:30

sbiddle:

There are now 4.21m people aged 12+ in NZ, down from the 4.35m figure that was quoted up until last week by the MoH. As of the 30th June Stats NZ put the total population at 5,122,600

I think it’s pretty well agreed that the MoH number are universally light, by at least 100K... they seem to be using a pop figure that is currently enrolled in the health system... so they can slice and dice the numbers on a DHB/ethnicity/age basis etc.. but will read high for an overall count..

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MadEngineer

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#2780483 18-Sep-2021 22:41

tdgeek:

Batman:

for delta i needs to be total. our hospitals can't even cope with locking down after 1 case

Can you post the link for that?

Further to batmans collection of links above, consider that during a lock down the elderly cannot be sent back to rest homes and must stay in hospital. That in itself rapidly clogs up a hospital.

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2780498 19-Sep-2021 00:24

Scott3:

On2or3wheels:

These are concerning numbers.

Cases infectious in the community : Seven (64%) of yesterday’s 11 cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious : Four (36%) of yesterday’s 11 cases
From today. "There are 20 new community cases today. 19 of these are household or known contacts."

Since today's cases are household or known they should have been in isolation already. It will be interesting tomorrow to see the dates on any LOI to get a gauge on whether people are following the rules.

Absolutely

It is pretty clear that the situation has not substantially improved over the last week or so. So our level 4 + contact tracing will take a long time to eliminate the outbreak, if it will at all.

Going to be very interesting what route the government goes on Monday. Options as I see it for auckland:

Create a level 5, and go super hard to eliminate the outbreak. (likely to be very unpopular given Auckland were expecting more freedom, not less).
Extended level 4. (Our next best chance at elimination, but may not achieve a significant in the next 2-3 or so weeks. Lock down fatigue would result in a decay of effectiveness of the lock-down, but our recent vaccinations should help its effeciveness)
Go to Level 3, as per prior indication (seems most likely, but this does mean giving up on a realistic hope of getting cases down to zero. If level 4 ain't working fast enough, level 3 sure won't)
Go to level 2, accept endemic covid-19, time the crush on our hospital systems to hit around early November - so it is in summer. Push vaccines super hard. (very unlikely we go this route)
I am picking Auckland will go to level 3. This will be a massive call, as it means we are unlikely to drop to zero cases ever. 'safe" call would be to extend level 4 another two weeks. But going to level 3, rather than level 2 means there remains an outside chance. Under level 3, case growth will be pritty slow, buying us several more weeks to crank our vaccination program, prep our hospitals etc, before we hit thousands of cases a day.

Kinda sucks for the rest of NZ, as cases grow in Auckland, leaks are inevitable, and other regions will need to be brought up to alert level 3 too.

Around early December we will be able to see what the load on our hospitals is, and consider dropping to level 2 for summer.

None of this is pritty.

Auckland can't go to level 3 imo, it just doesn't make any sense, until it is actually properly ringfenced. They have dropped too early before when they thought it was contained, only to have new cases popping up, and it resulted in going back up for an extra week, costing more money.

Also our health systems will struggle, due to the burden on the vaccinated https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-hospitals-brace-for-endemic-covid/P3DGPEHHVH7J5MDQ2YRWDONTVY/ . I have heard experts previously say that NZ pretty much need to get vaccination up into the high nineties. I notice that they are not interviewing some of these experts as much now.

IMO they should give everyone $100 or more, when they get their second jab. That will increase the numbers. They haven't given any helicopter payments yet, and at least $100 payment is actually giving people something back for their time getting jabbed and fuel etc getting there. .

Handle9

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#2780500 19-Sep-2021 00:45

sbiddle:

This means if we could vaccinate 100% of the eligible population right now aged 12+ it would only be 82.18% of the total population, so aiming for 90% of that is 3,789,000 which equates to 74% of the total population.

Aiming for 74% of the total population vaccinated by Xmas wouldn't even get us near the top of any tables - quite a few countries are already well beyond that, and in the 3 months until we're aiming for that percentage there are going to be a lot more countries who will move up the table.

I don't think being at the top of a table is the goal. The goal is to get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible. If you are an outlier at one end or the other of a benchmark then you are clearly performing very well or very poorly. If you are somewhere in the "typical" range then you start to need to look at nuance.

There is ~15% of the population below 12. It is what it is.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2780509 19-Sep-2021 07:15

F.D.A. Advisory Panel Recommends Pfizer Boosters for Older People and Others at High Risk

A key advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration overwhelmingly rejected recommending Pfizer booster shots for most recipients of the company’s coronavirus vaccine, instead endorsing them only for people who are 65 or older or at high risk of severe Covid-19, and received their second dose at least six months ago.

...

The F.D.A. has the final word on vaccine approvals, and while it is not obliged to follow the committee’s recommendations, it typically does. The agency is likely to issue a decision by early next week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/fda-pfizer-booster-covid.html

tdgeek

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#2780512 19-Sep-2021 07:26

On2or3wheels:

These are concerning numbers.

Cases infectious in the community : Seven (64%) of yesterday’s 11 cases have exposure events
Cases in isolation throughout the period they were infectious : Four (36%) of yesterday’s 11 cases
From today. "There are 20 new community cases today. 19 of these are household or known contacts."

Since today's cases are household or known they should have been in isolation already. It will be interesting tomorrow to see the dates on any LOI to get a gauge on whether people are following the rules.

Agree

But there are visits to supermarkets, etc, etc, essential workers. In perfect world, the infected people stay home, infect everyone else, and they all get cured = elimination. But its still spreading as many cases seem to be asymptomatic, so no need for a test, so they go shopping while infected. Masks obviously are a great protection, but Ive been to dairies (ok, its Level 2 here but you must wear masks) and not that uncommon to see a customer with no mask. I even went to one while in a rush and forgot to put it on, oops. When I realised she was serving me anyway, no questions. Stuff like that goes on

tdgeek

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#2780513 19-Sep-2021 07:29

alexx:

From my understanding we have about 70% of the eligible population, but closer to 60% of total population with one vaccination. Total population based vaccination figures for different countries can be found here, but as several people have noted, the Our World in Data charts use some out of date population figures, so useful but not 100% accurate.

The Ministry of Health site has a page showing the percentages for both the eligible and total population.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

In any case, 60% (even if fully vaccinated) is a long way short of where we need to be.

Im banking on a few things to occur in the coming months.

1. Under 12's become eligible

2. 6 Month old + get eligible

3. The looming opening up causes hesitators to cave in and get vaccinated.

Thats just leaves the conspiracy mob, thats expected.

tdgeek

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#2780515 19-Sep-2021 07:48

mattwnz:

Auckland can't go to level 3 imo, it just doesn't make any sense, until it is actually properly ringfenced. They have dropped too early before when they thought it was contained, only to have new cases popping up, and it resulted in going back up for an extra week, costing more money.

Agree. They cant mop the last of it up, cases seem to have stabilised, not reduced. Im not referring to 11 then 20, as numbers will fluctuate as the volume is small, but daily there are cases still. Infectious in the community still, so that breeds the next weeks and a half's cases. The Govt has wrongly hinted of Level 3, so thats the expectation. Then cases will probably creep up.

tdgeek

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#2780527 19-Sep-2021 08:38

Fred99: F.D.A. Advisory Panel Recommends Pfizer Boosters for Older People and Others at High Risk

A key advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration overwhelmingly rejected recommending Pfizer booster shots for most recipients of the company’s coronavirus vaccine, instead endorsing them only for people who are 65 or older or at high risk of severe Covid-19, and received their second dose at least six months ago.

...

The F.D.A. has the final word on vaccine approvals, and while it is not obliged to follow the committee’s recommendations, it typically does. The agency is likely to issue a decision by early next week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/fda-pfizer-booster-covid.html

Thats a pity if those that got vaccinated 8 months ago will start to evolve into a more vulnerable population. I assume there isn't a supply issue?

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