Batman: So what time is this decision announced? 4pm?

Yes 4pm today.

sbiddle:

 

The bigger problem is the one of vaccine rollout, and how we go about improving this. There is no denying we've hit a plateau, and I'm really surprised we're still sticking to 6 weeks for the 2nd jab now that we have no shortage of vaccines, as getting as many people as we can fully vaccinated ASAP is the goal now

 

I find this really interesting. When I booked my vaccine the system defaulted to a six week interval, and I manually changed it to three weeks as I wanted to have maximum immunity as early as possible in case this current situation turned really bad.

When I went for my first dose a couple of weeks ago I asked the vaccinator if I had done the right thing, and she indicated that there is some evidence favouring the effectiveness of a six week interval but three weeks is fine if that's what you're more comfortable with.

Under the circumstances I think the system should have defaulted to three weeks with the option to extend it to six weeks for those who prefer it. We are no longer in a position where we can have large numbers of people sitting around waiting for their second dose over the next few weeks. 

There may be people on the fence of views. Get it done fast vs it does better longer.

I never changed my 4 week (even though it was 3 at the time to get it at the same location, or she mis-read the calendar splitting 2 months) to 6 as there was still limited slots back then. So when I was asked when the first was, and said 4 weeks ago. But I need it for places I work at demanding proof. She said 4 weeks was a 'good number'. 

So it's likely anything from 3 in reality is OK in most jabbers eyes.

And again, how long it is effective for, and how long WE need it to be effective for. Relies largely on the operating and rest of the world rolling jabs going forward anyway.

Oblivian:

 

There may be people on the fence of views. Get it done fast vs it does better longer.

 

I never changed my 4 week (even though it was 3 at the time to get it at the same location, or she mis-read the calendar splitting 2 months) to 6 as there was still limited slots back then. So when I was asked when the first was, and said 4 weeks ago. But I need it for places I work at demanding proof. She said 4 weeks was a 'good number'. 

 

So it's likely anything from 3 in reality is OK in most jabbers eyes.

 

And again, how long it is effective for, and how long WE need it to be effective for. Relies largely on the operating and rest of the world rolling jabs going forward anyway.

 

I pushed back mine from 3 weeks to 8 weeks based on information on pfizer effectiveness overseas. I think in places like Auckland where time is of the essence then the more jabs in arms the better.

Fred99:

 

So keeping Auckland at L4 for longer might be horrible, but the alternative might be worse.  Instead of level 3 being "Level 4 with maccas", it could be be Level 4 with maccas and body bags.

 

If L3 was good enough for Wellington then it should be good enough for Auckland. 

Might be time to put the crystal balls down and sit tight until 4 to roll eyes.

And this went well..

Oblivian:

 

And this went well..

Yes, it is going well. Now there's no hiding the fact that there's an absolute shedload of Kiwis who want to come home and we have no possible way to house that many of them in MIQ.

It's probably a decent reality check for everyone involved - overseas Kiwis who seem to want to dictate terms to a country that is bending over backwards to nail down Covid at great social and economic cost, and the government who insisted their old MIQ site was functioning fine and that issues with bots or third parties charging massive fees were not something worth seriously acknowledging. 

Now the demand is there for all to see, and the inadequacies of the former booking system can be fully appreciated. 

The queue system might also suck, but it least it sucks in a pretty fairly distributed way. 

GV27:

 

Fred99:

 

So keeping Auckland at L4 for longer might be horrible, but the alternative might be worse.  Instead of level 3 being "Level 4 with maccas", it could be be Level 4 with maccas and body bags.

 

 

If L3 was good enough for Wellington then it should be good enough for Auckland. 

 

These is no comparison between the current situation in Auckland, and the situation that existed in Wellington, even at its worst.

DS248:

 

These is no comparison between the current situation in Auckland, and the situation that existed in Wellington, even at its worst.

 

Wellington, from memory, still had cases and they were from household contacts. Only recently (last couple of days) were they declared fully recovered.

From memory there was some surprise at Wellington moving down with the rest of the country for this reason. It seems that there is a similar issue when it comes to risk in Auckland, except we have now been locked down for weeks longer. So yes, I'd agree, the situation in Auckland is far more critical.

Seems the spin machine is going into overdrive. Grant Robertson on TV this morning saying they are confident they have got this contained (despite having 6+ cases that were in the community during their infectious period, and the discovery of two children that attended school in a level 2 area on Thursday when they were symptomatic with covid-19...).

Seems very clear from the data that moving Auckland down alert levels will be a transition from an elimination strategy to a suppression strategy... But the government are not going to admit that. Obvious reason is that it will annoy the entire country outside of Auckland & the Waikato who are currently enjoying level 2 with no detected covid-19. This won't last more than a handfull of weeks if Auckland goes to a suppression strategy.

sbiddle:

 

...

 

The bigger problem is the one of vaccine rollout, and how we go about improving this. There is no denying we've hit a plateau, and I'm really surprised we're still sticking to 6 weeks for the 2nd jab now that we have no shortage of vaccines, as getting as many people as we can fully vaccinated ASAP is the goal now

 

I think sticking to 6 weeks is a good call.

Means the focus can be aggressively be on first vaccinations. This is the highest priory in my mind is getting first doses into People ASAP so they can be fully vaccinated in due course.

Based on NSW, if we move to a lockdown lite, we will still have at least two months before we hit large case numbers (1000+ cases a day). We are less dense than Sydney and have more vaccination that they had 3 months back, so using them as a comparison is pessimistic too.

That two month lag means that people getting their first dose today, and second at 6 weeks will be considered "fully immune" (2 doses + 2 weeks) at 8 weeks, when we expect our outbreak to be getting pretty serious. It's not like they will be left in the cold in the meantime. It seems that one dose (plus a 2 week wait) offers about half the protection against infection of two doses, and still pretty good protection against death. There seems to be a heap of evidence that 6 - 12 weeks offers superior protection to a 3 weeks spacing. That will be important if case number do like NSW and continue to grow past 1000 to 1500 over the following month (by say mid December).

The other factor is spreading demand on vaccination centers.

Our massive surge (two weeks each with daily dose rates topping 90k) was about 4 weeks ago. Most of those (60 - 70k a day) would have been first doses. If those people are largely running the recommended 6 week spacing, in two weeks time we will be seeing 60 - 70k people turning up for their second doses. Currently on Thursday last week we did 37k first doses. If we can keep the first dose rate at a similar level for the next two weeks, we will see demand on vaccination centers  in the area of 100k doses a day, which will be really stretching our capacity. Any decision to promote bringing forward second doses (if it is decided that is best) should wait for at least a month from today, until this predictable rush has died down.

Also we want to avoid mixed messaging changing from recommending 3 weeks to 6 weeks, then back again to 3 weeks (at a time the government says they are confident they have a ring around the outbreak) is messy messaging.

Disclamer: had my 2nd dose at 3 weeks, 5 days. With hindsight I would have run 8 weeks.

[edit] Individuals can choose to bring forward their second dose to anything over three weeks if they want.

Oblivian:

And this went well...

Having a ring around the outbreak, well that might depend on the drug supply network. 

Maybe the telling point was a week or more ago when this got into a gang pad.
Getting full candid details of contacts and movements for the prior week or two would have been impossible.
A connected population that are not known for following rules.

Seems routine testing of court appearances would have helped, mush like routine testing of all presenting at Hospitals.
Routine testing of anyone detained by police for any reason as well to capture a sample of a certain population.
That chance to capture earlier has gone.

However we don't know the fine detail for privacy reasons, contact tracers might have more reason to be confident.

Answer is pretty much the same , keep vaccinating and don't let up for any particular number, get as many as you can.
I expect every extra % will get steadily harder, and there are areas like in Waikato where rate may be low anyway.

GV27:

 

Yes, it is going well. Now there's no hiding the fact that there's an absolute shedload of Kiwis who want to come home and we have no possible way to house that many of them in MIQ.

 

It's probably a decent reality check for everyone involved - overseas Kiwis who seem to want to dictate terms to a country that is bending over backwards to nail down Covid at great social and economic cost, and the government who insisted their old MIQ site was functioning fine and that issues with bots or third parties charging massive fees were not something worth seriously acknowledging. 

 

Now the demand is there for all to see, and the inadequacies of the former booking system can be fully appreciated. 

 

The queue system might also suck, but it least it sucks in a pretty fairly distributed way. 

 

Except I believe this is the expected christmas rush bank being opened again. The same as last year. While during the start of the year(s) there were advisements of 'luls' and capacity prior to the cohort changes restricting capacity.

It's more of an extreme case of outlining the innocent ones who are (still requiring to change circumstances in other countries to return home permanently), being outnumbered by people 2+ years down the track from the start of it just wanting to visit family for the break.