Also on vaccines, if you don't know about this link: COVID-19: Vaccine data | Ministry of Health NZ

mattwnz:

Putting the problem suburbs into a level 4.5 imo is the only solution unless they get far tougher overall.

I live in one of those suburbs and the chances of me sitting back while watching the rest of Auckland dine out on takeaways and despite there being throngs of people on North Shore beaches and Tamaki Drive this weekend under Level 4 are precisely 0%.

GV27:

 

mattwnz:

Putting the problem suburbs into a level 4.5 imo is the only solution unless they get far tougher overall.

 

I live in one of those suburbs and the chances of me sitting back while watching the rest of Auckland dine out on takeaways and despite there being throngs of people on North Shore beaches and Tamaki Drive this weekend under Level 4 are precisely 0%.

 

I guess therein lies much of the problem.  Thought much about the objective and what is at stake?

On2or3wheels:

 

You can't start paying people as they'll expect it for every vaccine & will hold off until there IS a payment.

 

Ge0rge: 

Bit rough on those people who see the value of being vaccinated and are already.

Plus, you'll introduce the issue of people waiting for payouts for the next pandemic.

We could do like Aussie, and require that rewards be offered only to the fully vaccinated, and are retrospective.

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/07/covid-19-vaccination-business-kit-information-sheet-vaccination-rewards.pdf

I am a bit worried about the slippery slope that could be started.

The government is already paying for the $30 odd per dose of vaccine, plus all the staff to do the roll out. Whats next, are parents going to expect payement each time they take their child to their child hood vaccination appointments? are people going to hold off their covid-19 boosters untill a $50 reward is attached?

On the other hand, a lot of people are calling for helicopter payments as lock-down relief / economic stimulus. Giving $50 to everybody that has had one dose and anouther $50 for everybody that has had the second dose would be effective at dumping $400m of state borrowed money into the economy.

GV27:

 

mattwnz:

Putting the problem suburbs into a level 4.5 imo is the only solution unless they get far tougher overall.

 

I live in one of those suburbs and the chances of me sitting back while watching the rest of Auckland dine out on takeaways and despite there being throngs of people on North Shore beaches and Tamaki Drive this weekend under Level 4 are precisely 0%.

 

I suppose one question is that if thirty-three days at Level 4 have not led to zero cases, how many days will ? 

DS248:

 

I guess therein lies much of the problem.  Thought much about the objective and what is at stake?

 

Yes, that would be why we've been in full compliance to the extreme detriment of our mental health for the last few weeks, and both of us fitting in our jabs despite looking after a sick newborn we can't get a GP appointment for and work commitments. So yea, thanks for the patronising comment, but I've had plenty of time at home reflecting on 'what is at stake' and frankly, my household has more than done our bit. 

freitasm:

 

Press release:

 

 

Whānau Ora and Associate Health (Māori Health) Minister Peeni Henare acknowledges two major milestones in the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programme for Māori.

 

“I am very pleased to announce more than 50 percent of eligible Māori have received their first dose and 25 per cent are now fully vaccinated,” Peeni Henare said.

 

“This means over 285,000 of eligible Māori have had their first dose. This is fantastic news and demonstrates that the whānau-based approach we have taken across the roll-out is working.

 

“The success of vaccination rates increasing in our Māori communities is due to the mahi being led by our Māori Health Providers and Whānau Ora Provider Network. They are leading a whānau-centred approach, providing outreach in hard-to-reach communities and taking the extra step to ensure the needs of our whānau are met.

 

“I want to mihi to all the kaimahi across the motu who are working hard to support our whānau. Thank you so much for all you’ve done and continue to do for our people.

 

“I acknowledge our three leading district health boards in first dose vaccinations: Southern, 58.7%, Capital and Coast, 58.4% and Tāmaki Makaurau, 52.8%.

 

“Māori Health Providers are rolling out many different approaches available to whānau across the motu.

 

“But there is still more mahi to be done. That is why I am proud to support the work the Whānau Ora Commissioning Agency and Te Whānau o Waipareira’s Fight for your whakapapa campaign launching today.

 

“Te Whānau o Waipareira have led an innovative whānau-first vaccination response in Tāmaki Makaurau despite the challenges of the Alert Level 4 lockdown. They quickly set up drive-through vaccinations and allowed walk-ins to enable whānau to come at times convenient to them, and now are leading the rollout of the ‘Shot Bro’ bus across hard-to-reach communities”

 

“Starting Monday the 08004MAORI phone line will operate 7 days a week between 8am-8pm, while also using popular Auckland radio stations and social media platforms to keep whānau updated on where the mobile vaccination bus will be in the community.

 

“From the start of the vaccination rollout I have said that this is about protecting our whānau and our whakapapa but this is not a one size fits all approach.

 

“There is currently a range of vaccination options available for Māori including walk in vaccination centres, pharmacies, GPs, mobile and pop-up clinics, mass vaccinations, workplace events, drive-through centres and marae-based programmes.

 

“Everyone is playing their part in the push to get all Māori vaccinated, including Turanga Health who are providing local Māori vaccination training and the Southern District Health Board which is working with Māori health providers to vaccinate shearing gangs in rural and remote areas across the district.

 

“We’ve had Māori wardens in Kaikoura helping with the vaccine rollout to their Māori population over 75, resulting in a 100 percent vaccination rate for this population; Ngāti Hine Health Trust opening a vaccination centre in Whangārei; Northland iwi opening a mobile vaccination service; a community vaccination centre has opened in Tokoroa; Muriwhenua kura are leading door-to-door vaccination drives in the Far North, and targeted Māori vaccination centres in Taranaki are boosting vaccination rates. These are but a few initiatives being driven by Māori for Māori.

 

“I want to give a special shout-out to Natasha Kemp, Chief Executive of Manurewa Marae, who initiated a walk-in service for rangatahi Māori that has seen an increase in vaccination uptake as a result.

 

“All of these initiatives are proving a huge success and ensure that Māori can access culturally safe services that meet their needs. We know this is critical to boosting the vaccination uptake rate and ensuring equitable outcomes for Māori.

 

 “While these figures are cause for celebration, we cannot afford to become complacent. It is vitally important that Māori continue to get themselves vaccinated not just for themselves, but for their kaumatua, their tamariki, and their communities.

 

“My number one message is come forward, get vaccinated. Once you are vaccinated, this helps make sure that you and your friends and whānau have the best protection against COVID-19,” Peeni Henare said.

 

 

What assistance is the Ministry of Health providing other groups that are "culturally appropriate"? For example with my toddler level Chinese language skills I had to translate for my parents in law and their friends to go through the vaccination process at the Mt. Wellington main vaccination center which includes a heap of questions...

freitasm:

 

Also on vaccines, if you don't know about this link: COVID-19: Vaccine data | Ministry of Health NZ

 

Yay. The vaccinated or booked % of eligible has notched up from 78 to 79%. We are attracting some new people, not just chewing through those who have already booked.

But the increases to that number are far slower than we are currently vaccinating. once we burn through the 254,000 currently booked (some of which will likely have allergy been vaccinated and double counted due to not canceling appointments), our (first dose) vaccination rate will cool rapidly.

But our vaccination curve is still looking good compared to peer countries. (First dose, which seems to be a pritty good proxy for nearly the number of fully vaccinated in 6 weeks time). Data before this weekend at this stage.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-vaccinated-covid?country=ISR~NZL~AUS~USA~GBR

Note this source slighly understates our population which makes us look a touch better than we are, but the difference is not massive.

Zeon:

 

What assistance is the Ministry of Health providing other groups that are "culturally appropriate"? For example with my toddler level Chinese language skills I had to translate for my parents in law and their friends to go through the vaccination process at the Mt. Wellington main vaccination center which includes a heap of questions...

 

I registered for the vaccine in advance and got a four page, double-sided letter telling me I could book, and two of those double-sided pages are the same text but in swathe of different languages. 

GV27:

mattwnz:

Putting the problem suburbs into a level 4.5 imo is the only solution unless they get far tougher overall.

I live in one of those suburbs and the chances of me sitting back while watching the rest of Auckland dine out on takeaways and despite there being throngs of people on North Shore beaches and Tamaki Drive this weekend under Level 4 are precisely 0%.

sen8or:

 

 

 

Christchurch - South Island should be at level 1. No community cases in the South Island for what, a year or so? Even bumping up numbers allowed in events to 100 indoors won't make a significant difference. The whole mask thing is ridiculous - 

 

Going to gym, put mask on in car to walk through the carpark, get to locker area, take mask off, perform workout, go back to locker put mask on to walk to carpark. Like the few seconds that people wear a mask going in and out of the building has any real impact on transmission which will still occur in a gym setting?

 

Going to restaurant- put mask on in car to walk through carpark and get seated, take mask off. Eat, drink, talk etc, put mask back on to pay and walk out. Same as gym scenario, really is there any protection?

 

In a public space like a supermarket, I can understand the rationale, more people, less ability to distance etc

 

They can keep scanning a requirement, a slight pain in the arse when you are popping in somewhere for a few minutes, but a minor inconvenience none the less.

 

[snip]

 

You.. aren't required to wear a mask while outside.. (it's just suggested)

mattwnz:

trig42:

 

What are they going to do to stop inter-household transmission in South Auckland.

 

They MUST know it is happening.

 

They MUST know why.

 

They aren't saying anything at the stand-ups, becaus ethey know there'll be vitriol on social media.

 

BUT, it is costing Aucklanders a fortune, and most of them are behaving.

 

Are there prayer meetings? Has it got into the gangs? This will go on till Christmas if they don't stop the bubble popping.

 

I'm frustrated now. I've been at home for 5 weeks (not that I mind being home), but I'm seeing my employer dying slowly from a thousand cuts, and I won't be the only one.

 

Putting the problem suburbs into a level 4.5 imo is the only solution unless they get far tougher overall.

That didn't work in NSW/Sydney and it won't work in Auckland.

Reanalyse:

I suppose one question is that if thirty-three days at Level 4 have not led to zero cases, how many days will ? 

mattwnz:

 

they actually should have done it weeks ago imo. The difference for most people who are staying at home anyway is almost zero. Otherwise Auckland could be in level 3 for months just to slow it down, and for many, there isn't much difference between level 3 and 4 as people still have to stay home. It is all about a sharp strict lockdown to get out of it as quickly as possible. The UK were in lockdown for months, just to slow it down.

They probably should have done it when they had exposure events in Massey/Westgate. They didn't. There's almost no good reason to consider doing it now. 

If you're implying that these suburbs should be held at L4.5 until the deadshit car-stealing, day-drinking, won't get tested/jabbed crowd suddenly change their spots, then we will be lockdown forever. Not a great sell for the people who have been doing their best to do their part. 

DS248:

 

I agree but a premature drop to L3 could ultimately prove a lot more expensive than an extra two weeks of L4.  Only need to look across the ditch for examples.  It was clear from around the time of the peak that this would be a long haul (or were we somehow going to magically drop numbers down to zero in 2 - 3 weeks when past experience suggests otherwise)

 

Dropping now with the current case numbers (regardless of today's figures) would be a signal that the government has given up on elimination, despite any spin about 'contained'.

 

 

 

Eighteen months in, I wonder how much serious research has gone into refining the level restrictions to optimise health and economic outcomes.   There are additional activities that could occur in L4 with very low risk.  

 

Other options include clamping down on inter-household mingling (coupled with additional support to make that easier/possible) and/or shifting the northern L4 boundary down to the harbour bridges.  But would they have the courage ... 

 

There is definitely a question of timing as to when we can move to a suppression strategy. 4 weeks ago there was absolutely no way we could. We would have been a NSW style mess if we went that route. Not enough vaccination, In winter etc.

But now we have 62% of our Total population with their first dose of vaccine (most of which will get fully vaccinated within 6 weeks). We have approval for vaccine for 12+ year old kids, We are only 3 months, 2 days from the start of summer. We are bringing online new covid-19 treatments in our hospitals. We have 400k vaccine doses in the freezer and a solid forward supply.

Keeping auckland at Level 4 costs something like 1b a week. But means the rest of the country (other than upper waikato?) can be in level 2.

The question if staying at level 4 for another week or two is worth this cost if we are moving to a suppression strategy. There is an argument that it dosn't. NSW outbreaked got bad (1000+ daily cases) 2 months after they started their weak lockdown, and peaked (1500+ daily cases) about 3 months. That timing would have our peak right at the start of summer, and give us time to get our vaccination program in line with the better countries in the world.

If we have cocked it up and moved to eairly, we can always bounce up to level 4 for a week or two to take some pressure off the hospitals... Many countries have been doing this for most of the pandemic, using restrictions to manage hospital load, not to eliminate.

I imagine people were up all night running models of case number growth & hosptal load under various vaccine uptake & alert level combinations.