2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2820076 26-Nov-2021 22:42

For those tracking the case numbers the news is pretty good. We have been flat lining for a couple of weeks. (I'm assuming that the percentage of cases detected is holding fairly steady)

My take is essentially from here it becomes a race between vaccination (and natural immunity), against the easing of restrictions & complacency. But hopefully we are past New Zealand peak.

Regardless, with cases flat lining, at least stuff isn't getting worse. And it seems we can handle 200 cases a day without overloading the hospitals, even if there are some issues with supporting people in home isolation.

In the news today that Auckland tests are now taking 5 days to process. I think this has been happening gradually and for some time (indicated by Monday case number dips following low sunday test numbers no longer happening), So I don't think the impact on the data will be massive.

Sucks for people isolating until they get test results though. And will require a rule change to get rid of anything that requires a result from a test in the last 72 hours...

On vaccinations we are still chugging along. Still around 6000 first doses most day's (excl sundays). At this rate, our eligible population first dose percentage (currently 92%), would go up by about a percentage point a week. We are really doing well at this.

Pacific Peoples (nationwide) have crossed 90% first dose, which is an amazing milestone.

On boosters, I know of two different people that have had their booster now. Apparently it is a good idea to book as not all clinics are offering boosters. But it seems if your 6 months is up and you turn up at a center that does boosters and ask nicely you will get one, despite their availability not officially opening for a couple more days.

DS248

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#2820081 26-Nov-2021 23:04

Scott3:

...

In the news today that Auckland tests are now taking 5 days to process. I think this has been happening gradually and for some time (indicated by Monday case number dips following low sunday test numbers no longer happening), So I don't think the impact on the data will be massive.

Sucks for people isolating until they get test results though. And will require a rule change to get rid of anything that requires a result from a test in the last 72 hours...

...

This now a serious issue and requires an urgent fix.

Not just people requiring tests within the last 72 hours for crossing the Auckland border but is also affecting people undergoing medical procedures where the same is required. Catch 22.

quickymart

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#2820095 27-Nov-2021 07:29

https://thespinoff.co.nz/covid-19/26-11-2021/siouxsie-wiles-explains-the-nu-variant-of-covid-19

tdgeek

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#2820097 27-Nov-2021 07:41

The concern with Nu is

Researchers in South Africa have already started their experiments to find out, but on the basis of the mutations we do know about, there is real cause for concern. The delta variant has two mutations in its receptor binding domain that help make it more transmissible. This variant has 10. It also has more than 30 mutations in its spike protein. This is the protein all our current vaccines target, so that’s a real worry.

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#2820102 27-Nov-2021 08:06

Nu or Omicron is it’s now known has turned world markets into the red. Dow Jones down 2.5% yesterday and the UK FTSE down 3.6%.

Cases detected in Europe already, this looks alarming to say the least.

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#2820110 27-Nov-2021 08:42

tdgeek:

The concern with Nu is

Researchers in South Africa have already started their experiments to find out, but on the basis of the mutations we do know about, there is real cause for concern. The delta variant has two mutations in its receptor binding domain that help make it more transmissible. This variant has 10. It also has more than 30 mutations in its spike protein. This is the protein all our current vaccines target, so that’s a real worry.

So much scaremongering at present and very little sold data to back most of the claims. Despite media clickbait headlines there is absolutely nothing to suggest for example that it is resistant to current vaccines or that current vaccines have reduced effectiveness. Maybe that could turn out to be the case, but the current headlines are just nuts.

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#2820114 27-Nov-2021 08:50

DS248:

Scott3:

...

In the news today that Auckland tests are now taking 5 days to process. I think this has been happening gradually and for some time (indicated by Monday case number dips following low sunday test numbers no longer happening), So I don't think the impact on the data will be massive.

Sucks for people isolating until they get test results though. And will require a rule change to get rid of anything that requires a result from a test in the last 72 hours...

...

This now a serious issue and requires an urgent fix.

Not just people requiring tests within the last 72 hours for crossing the Auckland border but is also affecting people undergoing medical procedures where the same is required. Catch 22.

Anybody crossing the Auckland border at present only needs to have had proof of a test within the last 7 days. You don't need those test results back. This key detail also seemed to be lost on media during the week with the Hastings case where some seemed to focus on the fact the case had travelled without getting their result back.

I'd also be surprised if there are many people crossing the border regularly that aren't signed up for saliva testing which doesn't seem to be encountering these days long delays. It makes life so easy when (like I did this week) you can just spit in a tube, have self drop off at a drop off location and then just show the results from their website on your phone at the airport.

The shambles at the moment is that saliva testing isn't available to more people, but we know from the report last week just how badly the govt and MoH botched that up. I feel sorry for lots of people in Auckland in particular at places like medical centres who are doing their own surveillance testing with 1-2x weekly tests but are not eligible for saliva testing.

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tdgeek

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#2820117 27-Nov-2021 08:52

sbiddle:

So much scaremongering at present and very little sold data to back most of the claims. Despite media clickbait headlines there is absolutely nothing to suggest for example that it is resistant to current vaccines or that current vaccines have reduced effectiveness. Maybe that could turn out to be the case, but the current headlines are just nuts.

So, "The delta variant has two mutations in its receptor binding domain that help make it more transmissible. This variant has 10. It also has more than 30 mutations in its spike protein. "

Is that idle speculation? Carried out by a service that investigates mutations? No one is saying it may be more serious or more transmissible yet, they have said its too soon, so I don't see how informing the technical details of what they have found so far to be scaremongering.

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#2820120 27-Nov-2021 08:57

quickymart: https://thespinoff.co.nz/covid-19/26-11-2021/siouxsie-wiles-explains-the-nu-variant-of-covid-19

South Africa has recently emerged from its third deadly wave of Covid infections. The most recent wave was caused by the delta variant which had become the dominant strain there just like it has in many other countries. Over the last week or so, cases have begun growing exponentially again in one region in particular. In Gauteng Province, they’ve gone from having a test positivity rate – that’s the number of tests processed that are positive – from under 1% to over 30%. National daily cases have increased from 273 on November 16 to over 1,200 yesterday. Over 80% of those have been in Gauteng Provence and of the cases in Gauteng Province almost all of them now are this new variant.

Good article. There's no need for panic. There's definitely cause for concern. Once again, events have shown there will be no "going back to normal".

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#2820122 27-Nov-2021 08:59

I see "global alarm" mentioned on Newshub with this new variant. Well, there are two ways to manage this.

1. If you favour opening up then its scaremongering. Take the risk.

2. If you don't yet know if its a very serious situation, or just another Covid strain, you may wish to take caution, and indeed have "global alarm" in case it is that bad, and if its not, no harm no foul. if it is, you have done a lot to close the stable door before the horse considers bolting.

Gambling is done at the TAB, not with a pandemic.

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#2820124 27-Nov-2021 09:04

gzt:
quickymart: https://thespinoff.co.nz/covid-19/26-11-2021/siouxsie-wiles-explains-the-nu-variant-of-covid-19

South Africa has recently emerged from its third deadly wave of Covid infections. The most recent wave was caused by the delta variant which had become the dominant strain there just like it has in many other countries. Over the last week or so, cases have begun growing exponentially again in one region in particular. In Gauteng Province, they’ve gone from having a test positivity rate – that’s the number of tests processed that are positive – from under 1% to over 30%. National daily cases have increased from 273 on November 16 to over 1,200 yesterday. Over 80% of those have been in Gauteng Provence and of the cases in Gauteng Province almost all of them now are this new variant.

Good article. There's no need for panic. There's definitely cause for concern. Once again, events have shown there will be no "going back to normal".

I dont see any panic. Alarm for sure and there is a good reason to be alarmed at the prospect.. Its in Hong Kong, Belgium and Israel. Well Im sure I read Hong Kong, can't find it now

EDIT

Yes, 2 cases in Hong Kong. So essentially, next week it will be Europe, Middle East and SouthEast Asia

Eva888

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#2820127 27-Nov-2021 09:20

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/456681/covid-19-eu-to-block-flights-after-new-variant-case-in-belgium

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-25/how-much-do-we-know-about-the-covid-variant-first-identified-in-botswana

Botswana vaccination rate is only 20%

Our government will likely change the NZ opening up and add restrictions. I feel so sorry for the overseas Kiwis whose plans to come home may again be thwarted now by Omicron.

ezbee

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#2820142 27-Nov-2021 09:42

Meanwhile northern hemisphere is still battling Delta winter resurgence.
Seems to be a more seasonal variant ?
With restrictions returning across Europe.

Bulgaria the lowest vaccination rate in Europe.
Vaccinations about 15%, before the latest wave, currently 25%.
Not far ahead of South Africa.

As for omicron, with many countries not having widespread genomic testing it could be in places we don't know yet.
Case in Belgium, in an an unvaccinated young adult woman who had been traveling in Egypt and Turkey, but had not been to southern Africa

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#2820143 27-Nov-2021 09:43

ezbee:

New Nu variant in Hong Kong, from South Africa transfers to another person in their MIQ.

The name has been officially assigned as Omicron, likely to avoid being called "nu variant" (spoken as "new variant").

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#2820147 27-Nov-2021 09:49

Eva888: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/456681/covid-19-eu-to-block-flights-after-new-variant-case-in-belgium

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-11-25/how-much-do-we-know-about-the-covid-variant-first-identified-in-botswana

Botswana vaccination rate is only 20%

Our government will likely change the NZ opening up and add restrictions. I feel so sorry for the overseas Kiwis whose plans to come home may again be thwarted now by Omicron.

Was about to mention it's already in the EU, and it came from Egypt which is quite a while away from Botswanna. I think testing lag is the reason why this wasn't picked up sooner so countries could have reacted faster.

Read a reuter's article with the PM saying that we're ready to deal with new variants of COVID. Honestly I don't think we are. Many reasons why I think this and the main 3 reasons are:

Vaccine hesitancy
Hospitals have already started rejecting referrals
Our contact tracing really does rely on people scanning and keeping track on those who are extremely mobile as we are a very mobile nation.

Maybe I'm a pessimist at this point but if the science suggests that this is more transmissible than delta then I think we need to have restrictions to make sure this doesn't enter the country.

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