2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 2097 | 2098 | 2099 | 2100 | 2101 | 2102 | 2103 | 2104 | 2105 | 2106 | 2107 | ... | 2422

3963 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2820970 29-Nov-2021 11:04

Today's press conference is going to be interesting.

Previously we have been advised that regions that do not reach 90% fully vaccinated will go into Red (with some pragmatism for regions that are very close) + Auckland will get red due to high case numbers. We will find out exactly how much pragmatisem will be applied. And how they will convert DHB's into regions.

The difference between red & orange doesn't really matter for me. I'm not planning on attending any 100+ person events this summer, with is the main restriction of Red for a vaccinated individual.

MOH table for DHB vaccinations is here:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

Currently the only DHB to have crossed 90% fully vaccinated is Auckland DHB.

Only (non Auckland region) DHB that is really close to 90% (currently they are rounded up to 90% is Capital & coast). Next few non Auckland ones are:

Canterbury (88%)
Southern (87%)
Hutt Valley (86%)

All the rest are 84% or below.

Means unless the goalposts are shifted (might happen - proxy off first doses or similar), most of the country will be going red. Obviously requiring cancellation of a lot of large summer festivals that were hyped in the "two shots for summer" vaccination campaign. And the taxpayer will be picking up 90% of the organizers losses for these.

Great news is that we are no longer seeing growth in case numbers:

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2820971 29-Nov-2021 11:04

There is an article on RNZ National which speaks to a point I made last week that did not go down well here. Two deaths in November have been seen as missed opportunities to prevent this outcome by the Northern Regional Health Coordination Center.

The findings marry up with my expanded explanation about demographic risks focusing on better assessment. Better understanding of complex factors like mental health, better clinical oversight (someone had the warning signs and did not bump them up the chain, probably because they were not qualified to know the difference, like I said, health line care models cannot replace face to face clinical consults).

The report recommends better Maori and Pasifika interface (I wrote about english as a second language and cultural issues also with a call center model).

The report primarily focuses on needing to change the current set up for faster reporting of adverse events.

Better patient focus seems to be the overarching theme (Not surprising, we had seen cases on the news of patients complaining about not being listened to and ending up in hospital for extended stays and this was before in home care came in).

As inevitable as these deaths were (and there will be more) we need to remember that this is also a reality of our system, and it begins with hospital infrastructure, or the lack thereof...an environment I worked in for nearly three decades.

I hope the people involved are not put through the usual witch hunt. Been through a few of S.I.R.P.s myself. It is not the in home care staffs fault that they are being asked to deliver care that is meant to occur in a hospital.

Care that is delivered over a telephone to patients you cannot see using accessory muscles to breath or their sunken eyes and flat neck veins from dehydration.

Just keep swimming...

FineWine

2981 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Nurse (R)

Lifetime subscriber

#2820974 29-Nov-2021 11:17

Batman:

Omicron vaccine in 100 days .... https://www.news.com.au/national/pfizer-signals-it-can-have-omicron-vaccine-ready-in-100-days/news-story/51a3f564a3c47859e4719fff341fd5eb

If there is a large difference between pre & post Omicron vaccines, I wonder if all of our current stocks can be swapped out by Pfizer and the latest still contain the Beta & Delta components?

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Senecio

2710 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2820976 29-Nov-2021 11:22

Scott3:

Today's press conference is going to be interesting.

Previously we have been advised that regions that do not reach 90% fully vaccinated will go into Red (with some pragmatism for regions that are very close) + Auckland will get red due to high case numbers. We will find out exactly how much pragmatisem will be applied. And how they will convert DHB's into regions.

The difference between red & orange doesn't really matter for me. I'm not planning on attending any 100+ person events this summer, with is the main restriction of Red for a vaccinated individual.

.....

Only quoted part of your post for brevity.

My hope is that we transition through red and into orange relatively quickly. Under the traffic light framework, red is reserved for when our health system is unable to cope with the number of hospitalisations. Our health system is coping at the moment so why wouldn't we transition through red quickly? I'm coming from an Auckland centric view and understand that other DHBs may be overwhelmed more easily.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2821015 29-Nov-2021 12:15

Senecio:

Only quoted part of your post for brevity.

My hope is that we transition through red and into orange relatively quickly. Under the traffic light framework, red is reserved for when our health system is unable to cope with the number of hospitalisations. Our health system is coping at the moment so why wouldn't we transition through red quickly? I'm coming from an Auckland centric view and understand that other DHBs may be overwhelmed more easily.

I would expect Auckland to drop from Red in a couple of weeks ( especially if case numbers keep falling)

As for getting out of Orange, I think that depends on Vax rates... the System is designed to give the vaccinated more freedoms at Red and Orange, when it gets to Green the "benefits" are not so huge... I think they will wait until we crack 90% Double doses... or maybe even higher...

afe66

3181 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2821019 29-Nov-2021 12:34

Auckland coping.... is that because dhbs sent icu staff from all round the country to help??

duckDecoy

896 posts

Ultimate Geek

Subscriber

#2821027 29-Nov-2021 13:01

Batman:

Omicron vaccine in 100 days .... https://www.news.com.au/national/pfizer-signals-it-can-have-omicron-vaccine-ready-in-100-days/news-story/51a3f564a3c47859e4719fff341fd5eb

I know zero about vaccines. Would it be a good idea to bundle this in with the original covid vaccine variant so we get a single shot that covers multiple variants? Sort of like they do with the flu jab?

Equinox IT

Cloud spending continues to surge globally, but most organisations haven’t made the changes necessary to maximise the value and cost-efficiency benefits of their cloud investments. Download the whitepaper From Overspend to Advantage now.

Senecio

2710 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2821037 29-Nov-2021 13:32

wellygary:

Senecio:

Only quoted part of your post for brevity.

My hope is that we transition through red and into orange relatively quickly. Under the traffic light framework, red is reserved for when our health system is unable to cope with the number of hospitalisations. Our health system is coping at the moment so why wouldn't we transition through red quickly? I'm coming from an Auckland centric view and understand that other DHBs may be overwhelmed more easily.

I would expect Auckland to drop from Red in a couple of weeks ( especially if case numbers keep falling)

As for getting out of Orange, I think that depends on Vax rates... the System is designed to give the vaccinated more freedoms at Red and Orange, when it gets to Green the "benefits" are not so huge... I think they will wait until we crack 90% Double doses... or maybe even higher...

I wouldn't expect any part of the country to move from Orange to Green until late into 2022.

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2821053 29-Nov-2021 14:08

FineWine:

Batman:

Omicron vaccine in 100 days .... https://www.news.com.au/national/pfizer-signals-it-can-have-omicron-vaccine-ready-in-100-days/news-story/51a3f564a3c47859e4719fff341fd5eb

If there is a large difference between pre & post Omicron vaccines, I wonder if all of our current stocks can be swapped out by Pfizer and the latest still contain the Beta & Delta components?

I would be pretty sure that to assure your place in the queue for vaccine you would have assured to take them.
No matter what. Thus the huge risks nations had to take in placing orders.

UK moved quickly to approve and secure AstraZeneca supply.
Causing much anger in Europe when they found themselves lower down the queue while they were prevaricating.

The statement that companies 'can' make a new vaccine in 100 days.
Next question is who is going to pay to start this process and guarantee a large enough order.
Any new vaccine will have to go through safety tests and trial.

So someone will have to plonk down requisite billions to start that process, that is not without risks.
Success is not assured even if if its probable, beyond risk shareholders want to take.

Oxford poured money ( Probably UK taxpayers really ) into a Beta vaccine variant, and after bursting out of blocks Beta stumbled.
No one wanted a Beta vaccine in the end.

Batman

Mad Scientist
29760 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2821060 29-Nov-2021 14:28

ezbee:

Any new vaccine will have to go through safety tests and trial.

i'm not sure this is considered a new vaccine. 99.9% of the ingredients are the same.

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2821061 29-Nov-2021 14:30

There is something screwing happening with first dose booking numbers,

until the end of last week the gap between 1st dose and 1st dose + booked, had basically gone to 0... (its was 2-3,000), indicating that most new first doses were done via outreach events and walkups...

BUT over the weekend, numbers have steadily risen to 6K on Friday, 11K on Saturday , 35K on Sunday and now over 40K in Today's report....

Either antivaxxers are trying to clog up the system (its been known to happen) or there is a huge number of people wanting first doses... but i suspect its people booking boosters who can't find their original booking appointment data and now being wrongly counted...

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2821065 29-Nov-2021 14:36

wellygary:

There is something screwing happening with first dose booking numbers,

until the end of last week the gap between 1st dose and 1st dose + booked, had basically gone to 0... (its was 2-3,000), indicating that most new first doses were done via outreach events and walkups...

BUT over the weekend, numbers have steadily risen to 6K on Friday, 11K on Saturday , 35K on Sunday and now over 40K in Today's report....

Either antivaxxers are trying to clog up the system (its been known to happen) or there is a huge number of people wanting first doses... but i suspect its people booking boosters who can't find their original booking appointment data and now being wrongly counted...

Probably a combination of all three. I read an article this morning that there has been a flood of first doses in Auckland (small flood, more like a big trickle) because of the looming Xmas deadline to get vaccinated in time to travel.

Just keep swimming...

Geektastic

17942 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2821082 29-Nov-2021 14:59

It's good that the system is slick and well resourced.

I tried to book my booster today. After 45 minutes on hold listening to asinine "here are some things you might want to know" recorded messages (including the number of doses given worldwide by the 10th March... It's now nearly December) I just gave up.