2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2465031 18-Apr-2020 19:10

Batman:
Ruby Princess in court case

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/121103651/coronavirus-company-knew-virus-was-running-rampant-on-ruby-princess-court-told

It's US litigation, they're going to claim the company tortures kittens if they can get away with it. Remains to be see whether the claims stand up in court.

Tinkerisk

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#2465032 18-Apr-2020 19:12

mattwnz:

Tinkerisk:

Sobering. The thought that you are eradicating the virus is surely seductive and probably doable. Nevertheless, you are prisoners in your own country and you have to remain on alert and act at lightning speed in the event of outbreaks. This is the case at least until there will be a vaccine. Herd immunization surely cannot be achieved.

I am trying to think positive, and that we can do it. But we need to plug the holes and not relax things too much , such as opening schools too early where it is impossible to keep kids apart from one another.

Don't get me wrong, I'm with you. We here now start the first actions to relax the situation. Step-by-step only. It will be revised 14 days stepwise and next relief will be only after seeing the consequences of the step before. I'm extremely excited to see how this tightrope walk will work with near two million people in a single city. But it's the only chance at the moment and we have to do it.

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neb

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#2465033 18-Apr-2020 19:14

frankv:
Scott3:

I know that the WHO has minimal credibility at this point,

I don't think there's any basis for that. Or are you going on the White House pronouncements?

I was going to follow up with my standard "Only if you believe Fox News" response but thought people might be getting tired of it. I agree with your point in any case.

Oh, and while we're talking about the Trump disinformation campaign, anyone want to place bets on how long it'll be before the state governors become the next scapegoat? You can just see the setup, they'll be next...

(Replies to the Trump thread if people feel it's off-topic here).

neb

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#2465034 18-Apr-2020 19:15

freitasm:
Scott3:

I know that the WHO has minimal credibility at this point, but they are warning against assuming antibody tests show evidence of immunity.

To be clear, do you have a source you can quote on the WHO credibility?

Sure, Herr Professor Doktor Donald John Brinkley Trump.

(Sorry, I just couldn't resist :-).

neb

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#2465043 18-Apr-2020 19:21

frankv:
Scott3:
I am not alone, there is a million people that are calling for Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to resign... https://www.change.org/p/united-nations-call-for-the-resignation-of-tedros-adhanom-ghebreyesus-who-director-general

That petition statement is nonsense. People who sign based on that are credulous fools.

And specifically, look at this guy's track record. He did that in fricken Ethiopia. No wonder he's head of the WHO. I think it's absolutely despicable that Trump and his sycophants are attacking someone like this purely to cover up his own failures.

Batman

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#2465047 18-Apr-2020 19:31

just for laughs, no offense intended

Technofreak

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#2465048 18-Apr-2020 19:31

iamaelephant:

I can confidently tell you I would have. I advised a friend of mine to cancel his wedding back in early March. In this comment on March 9 I was critical (and subsequently downvoted out of the conversation) of the Newtown Festival going ahead. For those of us who have been paying attention it was plainly obvious by the start of March that mass gatherings should have been put on hold. Let's not lose perspective here: the Bluff wedding went ahead on March 21(!!!) and the Cattle Conference on March 9-13. This is well past the time when it was absolutely clear that such events should not have gone forward.

The government dragging their feet on the Covid response is no excuse. The government shouldn't have to tell you not to hold events under such circumstances. You should engage your damn brain. In particular the Bluff wedding idiots - as far as I'm concerned the bride and groom belong in prison, as well as the moron who flew in without isolating and spread the actual virus.

I don't know what background or expertise you have for you to have thought it necessary to give that advice your friend. I applaud you for speaking up and saying your piece when you had concerns..

We all have different thresholds of pain and therefore will act or react at different points along the severity scale. I see this every day. Based on my threshold of pain some people will over react some under react. I don't know where you sit along that scale.

Rather than just take the opinion of just one person (unless they have proven they do have expertise on the subject) I tend to see what a range of people have to say, if I don't have a good grasp of the subject, before I make up my mind.

I don't believe the general population was aware of the consequences back when those events took place. Lets face it, we have had Swine Flu, SARS, MERS etc, none of which have been anywhere as devastating as Covid-19 especially inside New Zealand where the effect of these was minimal in comparison. In the early days I think most in New Zealand people saw Covid-19 in the same light as these other viruses.

I think the fact that most of the population didn't see the consequences is proven to an extent by the fact you say you were downvoted about the Newtown Festival. I'm not saying the downvoting was right, I am saying the general consensus at that time didn't align with your concerns.

I see WOMAD took place in Taranaki on the 13th to 15th of March without any clusters associated with it.

You say "The government shouldn't have to tell you not to hold events under such circumstances. You should engage your damn brain." Unless someone has specialised knowledge in an area how is that person to know which way to jump? That's why we have governmental organisations to provide the great unwashed with guidance on what to do. That advice didn't include cancelling such events. Therefore I stand by my opinion that it is unfair to hold these people to account.

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kingdragonfly

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#2465049 18-Apr-2020 19:32

PM Jacinda Ardern mentioned.

Women leaders praised for strategic pandemic response

CNN

debo

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#2465050 18-Apr-2020 19:34

tdgeek:

debo: I consider this "random" testing retarded. It would be better to have tested all 15000 Queenstown residents in combined tests. So swab 50 people and then do 1 test on the whole group. Still 300 tests over all but you will know exactly the spread. If a group tests positive then test the group individually.

No, its 15000 tests. Hard to do. 300 is the results. Easy to do. Nationwide we did 4700 tests Friday how long would it take to test 15000 in one town?

If say there were 0.5% CT out there, 1 in every 200 of us has the virus. If you test a few thousand, at supermarkets, or anywhere really, you get a snapshot, and should show 0.5% infection, and a margin of error.

I was referring to the number of RT-PCR tests needing to be done (300). I assume you are referring to samples (15000). Given there is a limited number of nasal swabs, then perhaps a simple 'spit' test is adequate. A lot easier to do and no need for trained health professionals. Not quite as accurate but is that necessary when doing population wide CT checking.

It is unlikely there is 0.5 CT there. Quite possibly as little as 20% of active cases. That means we are looking for 111 people out of 4886000. That is 1 in every 44000. So we will need 146 of these random tests just to possibly find one. There is not enough time to do this many. The only way is doing combined tests.

If I was in charge, I would be setting up sampling stations out side 500 places around the country such as super markets. Then take saliva samples from every one going into the store. Easy to do. It would provide an indication on whether to change levels up or down.

Fred99

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#2465052 18-Apr-2020 19:37

neb: I was going to follow up with my standard "Only if you believe Fox News" response but thought people might be getting tired of it. I agree with your point in any case. Oh, and while we're talking about the Trump disinformation campaign, anyone want to place bets on how long it'll be before the state governors become the next scapegoat? You can just see the setup, they'll be next... (Replies to the Trump thread if people feel it's off-topic here).

I think there's a topic relevant to this thread, to acknowledge the effort being put in to disinformation campaigns which seek to undermine the strategy that NZ (and others) have adopted for maximum effort for containment with the possibility of local elimination.

The motives (deflecting blame from their own failures) are transparent, they're pre-empting the possibility that our success will paint them in a bad light, and they want us to fail.

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#2465053 18-Apr-2020 19:39

debo:

I was referring to the number of RT-PCR tests needing to be done (300). I assume you are referring to samples (15000). Given there is a limited number of nasal swabs, then perhaps a simple 'spit' test is adequate. A lot easier to do and no need for trained health professionals. Not quite as accurate but is that necessary when doing population wide CT checking.

It is unlikely there is 0.5 CT there. Quite possibly as little as 20% of active cases. That means we are looking for 111 people out of 4886000. That is 1 in every 44000. So we will need 146 of these random tests just to possibly find one. There is not enough time to do this many. The only way is doing combined tests.

If I was in charge, I would be setting up sampling stations out side 500 places around the country such as super markets. Then take saliva samples from every one going into the store. Easy to do. It would provide an indication on whether to change levels up or down.

extrapolating from what you say, if you ONLY want to know if there IS CT, get everyone in a suburb to ***spit in a bucket.

then check for the SARS-CoV-2 RNA of every bucket. you can have as many buckets as you want. 300 buckets = 300 suburbs.

*** not all spit in the bucket but get their spit with a spoon or something and mix all the spit

tdgeek

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#2465057 18-Apr-2020 19:55

debo:

I was referring to the number of RT-PCR tests needing to be done (300). I assume you are referring to samples (15000). Given there is a limited number of nasal swabs, then perhaps a simple 'spit' test is adequate. A lot easier to do and no need for trained health professionals. Not quite as accurate but is that necessary when doing population wide CT checking.

It is unlikely there is 0.5 CT there. Quite possibly as little as 20% of active cases. That means we are looking for 111 people out of 4886000. That is 1 in every 44000. So we will need 146 of these random tests just to possibly find one. There is not enough time to do this many. The only way is doing combined tests.

If I was in charge, I would be setting up sampling stations out side 500 places around the country such as super markets. Then take saliva samples from every one going into the store. Easy to do. It would provide an indication on whether to change levels up or down.

Yes, I was referring to tests and test results, or as you say samples and test results. My 0.5% CT in NZ was just an example, not what I feel is here.

Is 500 venues easy to do? If you feel that CT may be 1 in 44000, you just need 146 tests? X50 = 7300? If you swabbed 44000 thats 880 tests, and you may find zero or you may find 1 or 2. If you found 0 its not conclusive.

tdgeek

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#2465058 18-Apr-2020 19:58

Batman:

extrapolating from what you say, if you ONLY want to know if there IS CT, get everyone in a suburb to ***spit in a bucket.

then check for the SARS-CoV-2 RNA of every bucket. you can have as many buckets as you want. 300 buckets = 300 suburbs.

*** not all spit in the bucket but get their spit with a spoon or something and mix all the spit

Finding out that my suburb is free of it doesnt help. Debo said 500 venues, that seems a bit high to manage. But it needs to be around NZ

Scott3

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#2465060 18-Apr-2020 20:01

dejadeadnz:

The media hasn't done a good job in holding people to account for some of those less blatantly dickish but yet nonetheless completely avoidable contribution to the COVID-19-related suffering. I am talking about the idiots who gathered for St Patricks celebrations in the Matamata cluster, the idiotic couple who went ahead with the wedding in Bluff when all authorities were calling for the minimisation of gatherings, and the idiotic organisers of that stupid cattle conference in Queenstown as examples. No doubt there are others/

For anyone tempted to retort "But they weren't breaking the law at the time!", consider this: the law is a floor and not a ceiling. Truly others-regarding, sensible and moral individuals should have (and ought to have) cancelled those unnecessary gatherings. It's easy to resort to platitudes like "The disease doesn't discriminate!" -- it doesn't but the world also could do with less people enthusiastically helping it along.

Dicks.

The government and media need to be carefull.

We should not crucify those that have spread the virus. Likely they feel pretty bad about it already, and the likely outcome of doing so is that more people will attempt to hide their infection or avoid testing, placing the country at increased risk.

Scott3

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#2465063 18-Apr-2020 20:12

frankv:

Good article. The word I have difficulty with is "minimal". Whilst there's no doubt that WHO could have done much better than it did, I think that there's also no doubt that things would be *much* worse if there were no WHO at all.

I think my use of the term "minimal" was unduly harsh, and "Questionable" would have been better.

It is an interesting hypothetical situation regarding if there was no WHO. I do feel they communicated valuable information, but in the absence of their recommendation to not restrict travel, countries would have sort to prevent the spread out of china much more quickly.

It is difficult to tell if this would have contained the spread, or simply sped up the spread as people fled ahead of travel restrictions (as was the case at a regional level in Wuhan and Italy).

I should note that the WHO's position is to avoid undue economic harm to the origin country of a pandemic, hence reducing the risk of countries trying to conceal future serious pathogens. Noble, but doesn't allways lead to the best short term response.

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